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Super League | Round 14

alphr.com.au

STH
St Helens
VS
WAR
Warrington Wolves
VENUE: THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 12 JUNE, 5:00 AM AEST

AI Win Probability

50%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

50%

Warrington Wolves

50%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Helens a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but St Helens counter with Forward Pack and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Warrington Wolves carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1481). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12L
R13L

older → newer

27.1
Warrington Wolves
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12W
R13W
22.0

Avg Conceded

26.8

St Helens

16.3

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-5.4

St Helens

3.7

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1297

St Helens

1283

Warrington Wolves

Line Breaks

3.6

St Helens

5.3

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 5-0
Mar 2026STH 14 - 24 WAR
May 2025STH 18 - 32 WAR
Apr 2025STH 12 - 14 WAR
Feb 2024STH 22 - 23 WAR
Sep 2024STH 2 - 16 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1481Overall1515
WAR
ELO difference: -34 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1036Forwards962
STH +74
961Backs982
WAR +22
921Halves1045
WAR +124
1033Hooker991
STH +42

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
WAR
2.1
Wins (Last 5)
2.9
27.1pts
Avg Score
22.0pts
26.8pts
Avg Conceded
16.3pts
-5.4pts
Avg Margin
3.7pts
1297.4m
Run Metres
1283.5m
3.6
Line Breaks
5.3

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

50%

St Helens predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: 0.0