# St Helens v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 6 – 18 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves howl past St Helens._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 28% / Warrington Wolves 72% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 12 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Tristan Sailor (16' 1st) · Warrington Wolves: Albert Hopoate (39'), Josh Smith (53'), Ewan Irwin (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 72% | Won |
| St Helens | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Warrington Wolves Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 01:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

St Helens 6–18 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 14 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven tackle busts. That's the gap between Warrington Wolves' 37 and St Helens' 30, and it's about the size of the gap that mattered most: Warrington Wolves winning 18-6 at The BrewDog Stadium by finding go-forward when St Helens couldn't hold them up.

It didn't look that way early. Tristan Sailor crossed in the 16th minute and added the conversion two minutes later, and St Helens led 6-0 with a scoreline that had no business surviving what came next. Warrington Wolves hit back right on the stroke of half-time, Albert Hopoate scoring in the 39th minute with Ewan Irwin's conversion locking it up at 6-6 heading into the sheds.

From there it was one-way traffic. Josh Smith crossed in the 55th minute, Irwin converted, and Warrington Wolves led 6-12. Irwin then finished the job himself in the 69th minute and kicked his own conversion two minutes later to close it out at 18-6. St Helens didn't trouble the scoreboard again after Sailor's early try, twelve points conceded without reply in a second half where the extra metre or two per carry Warrington Wolves were finding started to add up.

The run metres tell the same story in smaller print. Warrington Wolves finished with 1,350 to St Helens' 1,296, not a canyon, but enough when paired with those tackle busts to keep bending the line St Helens needed to hold. St Helens actually shaded the offloads, 10 to 8, and kept the ball more errors than you'd like at 12 to Warrington Wolves' 10, but the penalty count told a similar tale, St Helens giving away five to Warrington Wolves' four. Small edges, all pointing the one direction.

None of this should shock anyone who looked at the sheet beforehand. Warrington Wolves came in rating well clear in the areas that decide these things: backs 905 to 708, halves 786 to 600, hooker 1000 to 707. St Helens' forward pack held up its end, 794 to 830 isn't a hiding, but a game controlled through the middle and out the back was always going to lean Warrington Wolves' way. Their form line backed it up too, five straight wins against St Helens' three wins and two losses in the last five, and an average winning margin of 15.4 points a stark contrast to St Helens' average margin of plus-2.

Alphr's model had Warrington Wolves at 1620 to St Helens' 1581, tipping the win at 72% and picking a margin of 2.3 on a combined total of 33. The actual gap blew out to 12, wider than predicted but the right side of the ledger, and the model's win call landed clean. Both picks hit for this one, which won't happen every week, but when the underlying numbers line up this neatly with the eventual scoreline, it's hard to complain about the read.

St Helens will point to that opening try and a half-time scoreboard that gave them something to hold onto. But holding on wasn't enough against a side finding an extra seven tackle busts and the tries to match.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,296 | Run metres | **1,350** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 30 | Tackle busts | **37** |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 12 | Errors | 10 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Warrington Wolves 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 71.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — model probability 71.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 71.7% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 2 · Predicted total: 33

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 72% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 39 ELO points clear, 1620 to 1581. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for St Helens.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 33. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Warrington Wolves to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 8.4pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | 15.4pts |
| 1229.4m | Run Metres | 1320.2m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.0 |
| 340.6 | Tackles | 322.6 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 L · R13 L | 22.0 |
| Warrington Wolves | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 14 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 32 – 18 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R5 | St Helens | 12 – 14 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 22 | St Helens |
| 2024 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 2 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.25 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.85 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.85/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.85/g (def 7th) | 3.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.38/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 203m/g | 167m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 89.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 24 | 24 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 474m/g | 405m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 85.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 9 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 303m/g | 295m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.19) +37% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 0.88/g (lg 0.97) -9%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · Centres 0.4/g (lg 0.48) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 35/63g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/11g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Matt Whitley | CE | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 6/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/19g | 20/49g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 14/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 14/68g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | George Whitby | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/21g | 11/60g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/30g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 8/38g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jake Davies | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Shane Wright | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Deon Cross | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 6/13g | 26% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/4g | 52% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 53' |
| 4 | Zack Gardner | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/6g (0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | James Harrison | 2R | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/23g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·4·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 3/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1581 · Warrington Wolves 1620 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 33 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)