# Hull KR v York Knights — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 38 – 6 York Knights

_Hull KR run riot over York Knights._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 81% / York Knights 19% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 13 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Tom Davies (9'), Mikey Lewis (22'), Joe Burgess (28'), James Batchelor (37'), Tom Davies (42'), Jack Broadbent (58'), Rhyse Martin (64') · York Knights: Jonathan Bennison (4' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 81% | Won |
| York Knights | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.0 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 01:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull KR 38–6 York Knights in Super League Round 14 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights actually won a few battles on the stat sheet. They gave away fewer penalties, 6 to 7. They handled the ball better, with only 10 errors to Hull KR's 16. They even out-busted Hull KR in the tackle, 42 to 25. None of it mattered. Hull KR won 38-6 at Sewell Group Craven Park, and the gap between the stats that flatter York Knights and the one that decided the game tells its own story.

That one stat is line breaks. Hull KR crossed the advantage line nine times. York Knights managed it once. Tackle busts are one thing, but if you can't turn pressure into space, you're just running into bodies. York Knights ran for 958 metres to Hull KR's 1,440 and still finished with a single break to show for it. That's the difference between busy footy and dangerous footy.

Jonathan Bennison had York Knights dreaming early, scoring in the 4th minute to make it 0-4, with Cody Hunter's conversion stretching it to 0-6 by the 6th. It was the best passage of the match for the visitors, and it lasted about five minutes.

Tom Davies pulled Hull KR level with a try in the 9th, Rhyse Martin's boot made it 6-6, and from there the home side simply took over. Mikey Lewis in the 22nd, Joe Burgess in the 28th, James Batchelor in the 37th: three tries inside fifteen minutes turned a level game into a rout. By half-time it was 22-6, and York Knights hadn't scored again since Bennison's opener.

The second half kept the same shape. Davies grabbed his second in the 42nd, Jack Broadbent crossed in the 58th, and Rhyse Martin capped his own big night with a try in the 64th before booting the conversion to make it 38-6. Martin finished with a hand in the scoring column as well as the boot, which is about as complete a night as a goalkicker gets.

The positional numbers explain why York Knights never got parity in the arm wrestle. Hull KR held big edges up front, 1,070 to 782 in the forwards and 1,056 to 727 in the backs, and that gap in go-forward is exactly what shows up in a 1,440 to 958 run-metre

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,440** | Run metres | 958 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 25 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| **14** | Offloads | 7 |
| 16 | Errors | **10** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 16 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.0 but the actual margin was 32 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. Hull KR led 22–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (10/100) — penalties Hull KR 7 · York Knights 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 80.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — model probability 80.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 80.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 12 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 81% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 411 ELO points clear, 1723 to 1312. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for York Knights.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 12.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 40.8pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1415.8m | Run Metres | 1227.6m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 292.2 | Tackles | 308.4 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 40.8 |
| York Knights | R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | York Knights | 19 – 18 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.42 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 13th there (2.69 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Galeano, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.62/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 3.42/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.69/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) | 1.08/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 3 | 5 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 203m/g | 113m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 17 | 21 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 641m/g | 447m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.1/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 87.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 10 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 307m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.11) +109% · Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.25) +84%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.27) -4% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.48) -29% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 12/25g | 30% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 12/21g | 42% | — | 🏉 9' 42' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 12/30g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (0·1·1·1·3·2·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 26/24g | 60% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/29g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 14 in 12g | 14/10g (2·0·3·0·0·4·1·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 34/50g | 54% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/47g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 30% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 13/38g | 14% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/53g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 11/55g | 30% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/42g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Jnr | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 3/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Kieran Buchanan | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 4' |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Liam Harris | HB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Harvey Reynolds | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | King Vuniyayawa | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1723 · York Knights 1312 · ELO difference: 411 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)