# Hull FC v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 36 – 12 Huddersfield Giants

_Hull FC outmuscle Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 46% / Huddersfield Giants 54% · MKM Stadium · Sun, 14 June, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Logan Moy (15'), Jake Arthur (26'), Ethan O'Neill (52'), Amir Bourouh (58'), Harvey Barron (64'), Ethan O'Neill (67') · Huddersfield Giants: Oliver Russell (9' 1st), Connor Wrench (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | 54% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 June 2026, 07:15 am · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull FC 36–12 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 14 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC ran past Huddersfield Giants 36–12 at MKM Stadium. Leading 12–6 at half-time, Hull FC pulled clear late.

Oliver Russell opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Logan Moy, Jake Arthur, Ethan O'Neill (2), Amir Bourouh and Harvey Barron; Huddersfield Giants scored through Oliver Russell and Connor Wrench.

Hull FC were sharper in attack, breaking the line 5 times to 3. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 4 penalties to 5.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,463** | Run metres | 1,446 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 34 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| 9 | Offloads | **15** |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 54% prediction for Huddersfield Giants, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. Hull FC led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (9/100) — penalties Hull FC 4 · Huddersfield Giants 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Huddersfield Giants to win — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 54.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Huddersfield Giants 1-12 — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 6 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Huddersfield Giants are the call at 54%, but Hull FC stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull FC sit 107 ELO points clear, 1384 to 1277, so the model is backing Huddersfield Giants against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull FC's way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

Huddersfield Giants own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull FC by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Huddersfield Giants, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 10.8pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 35.6pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | -24.8pts |
| 1159.6m | Run Metres | 1118.0m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 312.0 | Tackles | 342.4 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 15.6 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 10.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 16 | Hull FC | Hull FC 58% ✗ |
| 2025 | R20 | Hull FC | 14 – 30 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 11 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 22 – 56 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (1.23 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 4th there (1.46 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.38/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.46/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.62/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.62/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.62/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 4 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 90m/g | 114m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 87.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 30 | 24 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 502m/g | 462m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 13.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 80.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 306m/g | 297m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.19) +79% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.48) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.2) +40%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 15% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 16/25g | 46% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 3 | Ethan O'Neill | CE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 19% | — | 🏉 52' 67' |
| 4 | Lloyd Kemp | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/19g | 4/25g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Jeremiah Matautia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/18g | 6% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 23% | — | — |
| 13 | William Kirby | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Herman Ese'ese | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/22g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Taane Milne | WG | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 48% | — | — |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 5 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Oliver Russell | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Patolo | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 10 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Tristan Powell | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Cole Geyer | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | George King | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1384 vs 1277), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.85). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull FC 1384 · Huddersfield Giants 1277 · ELO difference: 107 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)