AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
50%
Castleford Tigers
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Catalans Dragons a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Catalans Dragons carry a 39-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1489). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R9L R10L R11L R12W R13L older → newer | 29.7 |
Castleford Tigers | R9L R10L R11W R12W R13L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Catalans Dragons
23.1
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-4.2
Catalans Dragons
4.1
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1525
Catalans Dragons
1239
Castleford Tigers
Line Breaks
7.2
Catalans Dragons
7.8
Castleford Tigers
ELO–Market Disagreement
Catalans Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1528 vs 1489), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@0.00).
The model sides with ELO, Catalans Dragons predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: 0.0