# Catalans Dragons v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 34 – 28 Castleford Tigers

_Catalans Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 22 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 51% / Castleford Tigers 49% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 14 June, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Tommy Makinson (6' 1st), Tommy Makinson (12' 1st), Franck Maria (24'), Solomona Faataape (36'), Toby Sexton (43'), Solomona Faataape (52') · Castleford Tigers: Jason Qareqare (19'), Jack Brown (30'), Joe Stimson (62'), Krystian Mapapalangi (70'), Krystian Mapapalangi (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 51% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Castleford Tigers Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 June 2026, 07:15 am · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 34–28 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 14 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers finished with more metres, more line breaks and more busted tackles than the side that beat them. None of it mattered enough. They ran for 1,308 metres to Catalans Dragons' 1,223, broke the line six times to four, and busted 39 tackles to 26. On the raw attacking numbers, Castleford were the better side. They still lost by six.

Where it went wrong was the start. Tommy Makinson crossed twice inside the first 12 minutes, and by the 14th Catalans led 12-0 before Castleford had troubled the scoreboard. Jason Qareqare got them on the board in the 19th, but Franck Maria replied five minutes later, and by half-time it was 22-12. Castleford's line-break count and their metres were building the whole game, they just weren't landing when Catalans were pulling away.

Catalans Dragons won it 34-28, and the manner of it fits their profile coming in. Their halves rating of 965 against Castleford's 600 was the biggest positional gap on the sheet, and it showed: Toby Sexton got his try in the 43rd minute to push the margin to 26-12, and Solomona Faataape's double either side of that stretch, one just before half-time and one in the 52nd, took the score out to 34-12. At that point it looked done.

Castleford didn't fold. Joe Stimson scored in the 62nd, then Krystian Mapapalangi crossed twice late, in the 70th and again in the 79th, dragging the deficit back to six points by full-time. That's three tries in the last 18 minutes, which tells you the tackle busts and the extra metres eventually found the tryline. It just started too late to matter.

Discipline was tight all night, Castleford conceding five penalties to Catalans' six, and errors were close too, ten to eight in the Tigers' favour on the wrong side of the ledger. Neither stat swung it. What did was the early scoreboard damage and Catalans owning the moments either side of half-time, the Sexton try just after the break in particular.

Catalans came in having lost four of their last five, averaging 39.8 points conceded a game, numbers that suggested a side that leaks points in bunches. They still leaked 16 across the last two scoring bursts here. Castleford arrived on the back of two wins from five, averaging more run metres per game across that stretch than Catalans, 1,240 to 985, and that form line played out almost exactly: they out-ran and out-broke the home side, just not by enough to outscore them.

Alphr's model had Catalans at 51% and picked them to win by 2.1 points against a combined total of 41. The final margin came in at six, close enough to the number, and the 62 points scored blew well past the predicted total by 21. All three picks landed. Not a bad night's work for the model, even if the Tigers made it a lot more interesting than 22-12 suggested it might be.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1,223 | Run metres | **1,308** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **39** |
| 5 | Offloads | **8** |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 5 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 2.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 62 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 41. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 6 · Castleford Tigers 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +11.5 — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Castleford Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Catalans Dragons and Castleford Tigers. The model can't split them, landing on Catalans Dragons at 51%. Form leans Castleford Tigers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Castleford Tigers by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 39.8pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| -23.0pts | Avg Margin | -13.6pts |
| 985.2m | Run Metres | 1240.4m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 324.4 | Tackles | 323.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 W · R13 L | 16.8 |
| Castleford Tigers | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 34 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R23 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 4 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R5 | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 26 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R18 | Castleford Tigers | 24 – 18 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R5 | Catalans Dragons | 40 – 14 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.23 conceded/game). Key man: Darrelatour, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.85 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 14th there (2.69 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) | 0.69/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.69/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.85/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.85/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.31/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.38/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.08/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 3 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 108m/g | 83m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 30 | 13 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 510m/g | 382m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 11.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 10 | 5 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 270m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 94.6% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · Wingers 1.49/g (lg 0.98) +52% · Fullbacks 0.37/g (lg 0.25) +48%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 44% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 4/6g | 11/18g | 38% | — | 🏉 6' 12' |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 35% | — | 🏉 36' 52' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 39% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/42g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Franck Maria | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/55g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 2/31g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/23g | 12% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 70' 79' |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·3·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Stimson | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 11 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | George Lawler | LK | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/17g | 0/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Jordan Lane | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 2% | — | 🏉 30' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1414 · Castleford Tigers 1394 · ELO difference: 19 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)