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Super League | Round 14

alphr.com.au

BRD
Bradford Bulls
VS
LEI
Leigh Leopards
VENUE: BARTERCARD ODSAL STADIUM • MONDAY 15 JUNE, 12:00 AM AEST

AI Win Probability

50%Bradford BullsFavourite

Bradford Bulls

50%

Leigh Leopards

50%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Bradford Bulls a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Bradford Bulls ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bradford Bulls carry a 35-point ELO rating advantage (1514 vs 1479). Recent form favours Bradford Bulls with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Leigh Leopards.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bradford Bulls
R9L
R10L
R11W
R12L
R13W

older → newer

26.0
Leigh Leopards
R9W
R10W
R11L
R12W
R13W
22.1

Avg Conceded

24.6

Bradford Bulls

17.4

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

8.4

Bradford Bulls

7.9

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1205

Bradford Bulls

1486

Leigh Leopards

Line Breaks

3.3

Bradford Bulls

3.7

Leigh Leopards

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Bradford Bulls hold the ELO advantage (1514 vs 1479), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@0.00).

The model sides with ELO, Bradford Bulls predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRD
1514Overall1479
LEI
ELO difference: +35 in favour of Bradford Bulls

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1040Forwards988
BRD +52
1026Backs944
BRD +82
1050Halves985
BRD +65
959Hooker1027
LEI +68

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRD
Stat
LEI
1.7
Wins (Last 5)
1.2
26.0pts
Avg Score
22.1pts
24.6pts
Avg Conceded
17.4pts
8.4pts
Avg Margin
7.9pts
1205.0m
Run Metres
1486.5m
3.3
Line Breaks
3.7

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulls
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulls
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulls
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Bulls
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

50%

Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: 0.0