# Bradford Bulls v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 12 – 38 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 25% / Leigh Leopards 75% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Mon, 15 June, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Chris Atkin (43'), Caleb Aekins (59') · Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (12' 1st), Josh Charnley (30' 1st), Innes Senior (48'), Josh Charnley (53' 1st), Bailey Hodgson (65'), Louis Brogan (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 75% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Leigh Leopards Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 June 2026, 12:13 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Bradford Bulls 12–38 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 14 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls actually won the collision count where it mattered least. They broke the line five times to Leigh Leopards' three, busted 29 tackles to 19, and offloaded 14 times to 10. On paper that is the sort of attacking ledger that wins matches. Instead they lost 38-12, and the gap between what the stat sheet suggests and what the scoreboard says is the story of this one.

The problem was what happened either side of the ball. Bradford coughed it up 15 times to Leigh's 8, and against a backline rated at 1112 to Bradford's 649 coming in, that kind of generosity gets punished every time. Leigh Leopards' halves pairing, rated 1269 against Bradford's 928, made sure of it.

The damage was done early and never repaired. Adam Cook's penalty goal in the 11th minute got Leigh moving, and Josh Charnley's first try three minutes later made it 6-0. Cook converted, then Charnley struck again in the 30th minute for his second, Cook's boot following to make it 14-0 at the break. Bradford didn't manage a point in that opening half, which given their form line coming in (two wins from five, conceding 29.2 points a game on average) was hardly a shock.

Bradford did find something after the break. Chris Atkin crossed in the 43rd minute and Riley Dean's conversion brought it to 6-14, the closest the margin got all night. But Leigh Leopards answered inside three minutes through Innes Senior, and from there it was one-way traffic. Charnley completed his hat-trick in the 53rd minute to push it to 6-24, and even Caleb Aekins' try for Bradford in the 59th, converted by Dean to make it 12-26, only briefly slowed things down. Bailey Hodgson and then Louis Brogan added further tries in the 65th and 70th minutes, with Cook converting both, and the final margin blew out to 26.

Bradford's discipline was actually fine, conceding just 3 penalties to Leigh's 5, and their forward pack held its own too, rated 873 to 804 and outgaining Leigh only marginally on the ledger of aggression stats. But none of that mattered when the ball kept leaving their hands. Fifteen errors against a side averaging 7.6 clean breaks over its last five outings is an invitation, and Leigh Leopards took it six times over.

For Leigh Leopards, this was form playing out to script. Four wins from five coming in, averaging 29 points a game and conceding under 15, and they matched that profile almost exactly here. Charnley's hat-trick was the headline, but the platform underneath it, from a stronger halves and backline unit, did the heavy lifting.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards favourites at 75 percent and picked the winner without fuss. The margin was another matter. A predicted win of 12.8 points on a combined total of 39 undersold just how one-sided this became, with the actual margin more than double that. Half right, and the half it got wrong wasn't close.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1,353 | Run metres | **1,401** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **29** | Tackle busts | 19 |
| **14** | Offloads | 10 |
| 15 | Errors | **8** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 7/7 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 15 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 26 points. Leigh Leopards led 0–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 3 · Leigh Leopards 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 75.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 75.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — model probability 75.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 13 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 75% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 162 ELO points clear, 1577 to 1415. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Bradford Bulls.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | 14.2pts |
| 1241.8m | Run Metres | 1357.6m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 7.6 |
| 317.4 | Tackles | 291.6 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R13 W | 16.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leigh Leopards lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Leigh Leopards | 62 – 10 | Bradford Bulls |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the middle: Super League's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 10th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Nikorima, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (1.46 conceded/game). Key man: Charnley, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.15/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.46/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.54/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.31/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.31/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.54/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.69/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 8th) | 0.85/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 33 | 28 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 494m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 86.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 11 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 291m/g | 388m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.23/g (lg 0.06) +283% · Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.2) +130% · 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.28) +64%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 13% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Guy Armitage | WG | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 31% | — | — |
| 3 | Ed Chamberlain | CE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/5g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/5g | 4/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Christopher Atkin | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 43' |
| 7 | Riley Dean | HB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Eribe Doro | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/4g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Phoenix Steinwede | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 3 | Bailey Hodgson | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 4 | Jack Hughes | CE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 13 in 13g | 12/10g (0·1·2·0·1·2·2·1·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 12' 30' 53' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 15 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Gareth O'Brien | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1415 · Leigh Leopards 1577 · ELO difference: 162 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)