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Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

Fri 5 June5:00am
LEELEE
STHSTH
Sat 6 June5:00am
WARWAR
HULHUL
Sat 6 June5:00am
BRDBRD
YRKYRK
Sat 6 June5:00am
CASCAS
LEILEI
Sun 7 June12:00am
HUDHUD
TOUTOU
Sun 7 June1:30am
WAKWAK
HKRHKR
Sun 7 June3:30am
CATCAT
WIGWIG
WAR
Warrington Wolves
VS
HUL
Hull FC
VENUE: HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SATURDAY 6 JUNE, 5:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
12
4

Scoring Breakdown

WolvesFC
2Tries1
2/2Conversions0/1
9Penalties Conceded6
15Errors16
1Sin Bins1
1Line Breaks4
31Tackle Busts33
8Offloads9
1242Metres1145

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

FC had a slight +3 penalty edge, but the overall balance was acceptable. No significant concerns.

PENS9 – 6
ERR15 – 16

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 82% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 4.7 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 16 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 51. Warrington Wolves trailed 0–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–4. The model went 2/4 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Warrington Wolves firmly in control (99%)
WAR12
99%80'1%
4HUL
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Hull FC momentumMomentum +28Warrington Wolves momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

82%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

82%

Hull FC

18%

✨

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warrington Wolves carry a 213-point ELO rating advantage (1609 vs 1396). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull FC. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 4.7 points with a combined total of 51.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.09

Winner ✓

Edge

-9.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves -16.5 @1.85

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Over 46.5 @1.85

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R8L
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12W

older → newer

25.8
Hull FC
R8L
R9W
R10L
R11L
R12L
17.6

Avg Conceded

15.2

Warrington Wolves

20.8

Hull FC

Avg Margin

10.6

Warrington Wolves

-3.2

Hull FC

Run Metres

1316

Warrington Wolves

1147

Hull FC

Clean Breaks

7.4

Warrington Wolves

3.0

Hull FC

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1609Overall1396
HUL
ELO difference: +213 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

821Forwards797
Best: 1067WAR +24Best: 1076
1172Backs690
Best: 1224WAR +482Best: 750
724Halves633
Best: 786WAR +91Best: 633
600Hooker856
HUL +256

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
HUL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
25.8pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
15.2pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
10.6pts
Avg Margin
-3.2pts
1316.2m
Run Metres
1146.6m
7.4
Clean Breaks
3.0
321.6
Tackles
311.4
9.4
Errors
11.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
—
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

82%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 51 · Line: +4.7

2/4 match predictions correct