# Warrington Wolves v Hull FC — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 12 – 4 Hull FC

_Warrington Wolves hit back to run down Hull FC._

Half time: 0 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 82% / Hull FC 18% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 06 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Smith (46'), Josh Smith (79') · Hull FC: Harvey Barron (5' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 82% | Won |
| Hull FC | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 12–4 Hull FC in Super League Round 13 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves held off Hull FC 12–4 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Trailing 4–0 at half-time, Warrington Wolves flipped the game after the break.

Harvey Barron opened the scoring; Warrington Wolves crossed through Josh Smith (2); Hull FC scored through Harvey Barron.

Hull FC were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 1. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 6 penalties to 9.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,236** | Run metres | 1,139 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 31 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 8 | Offloads | **9** |
| 15 | Errors | 15 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 15 | Errors | 15 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 82% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 4.7 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 16 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 51. Warrington Wolves trailed 0–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–4. The model went 3/4 on this match. Hull FC covered the 16.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 9 · Hull FC 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +16.5 — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 5 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 82% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 213 ELO points clear, 1609 to 1396. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 51. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Warrington Wolves to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.8pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| 10.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1323.2m | Run Metres | 1154.0m |
| 7.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 321.6 | Tackles | 311.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R8 L · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 25.8 |
| Hull FC | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Hull FC | 14 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Hull FC | 34 – 2 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 28 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.09 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 13th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: King, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the right edge: Super League's 13th-ranked right edge attack (0.58 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 12th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Briscoe, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.27/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3.36/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.09/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.58/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 1 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 170m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 21 | 19 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 415m/g | 501m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.9/g | 14/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 2 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 287m/g | 310m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 93% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.25) +40% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 0.88/g (lg 0.97) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Webster | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/6g | 52% | — | — |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 46' 79' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 21/45g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/60g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Currie | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 16/68g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Philbin | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Crowther | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ewan Smith | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·4·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/13g | 14% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 44% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/20g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Lloyd Kemp | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/17g | 4/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Jeremiah Matautia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Cade Cust | LK | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Herman Ese'ese | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | William Kirby | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1609 · Hull FC 1396 · ELO difference: 213 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)