# Wakefield Trinity v Hull KR — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 26 – 24 Hull KR

_Wakefield Trinity outlast Hull KR in a tight one._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 21% / Hull KR 79% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 07 June, 01:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Oliver Pratt (15' 1st), Cameron Scott (30'), Josh Rourke (33'), Matty Storton (42'), Mason Lino (77') · Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (23'), Jai Whitbread (37'), Sam Luckley (51'), Tyrone May (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 79% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 21% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 26–24 Hull KR in Super League Round 13 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Mason Lino's second conversion of the night, in the 78th minute, settled it. Wakefield Trinity 26, Hull KR 24. It was that sort of match, the lead changing hands late enough to make the whole ground nervous.

Wakefield were first to move. Oliver Pratt scored in the 15th minute and Lino's conversion made it 6-0 a minute later. Hull KR hit back through Mikey Lewis just before the half-hour, then Lewis added the conversion to level it at 6-6. For a few minutes it sat even. Then Wakefield scored twice in three minutes, Cameron Scott in the 30th and Josh Rourke in the 33rd, and Lino's boot pushed it to 16-6. Jai Whitbread got one back for Hull KR right on the stroke of half-time, and Wakefield Trinity took a 16-12 lead into the sheds.

Matty Storton's try just after the restart, in the 42nd minute, stretched the margin to 20-12. That looked like the platform Wakefield needed, but Hull KR kept coming back. Sam Luckley scored in the 51st and Rhyse Martin's conversion made it 20-18. By the 65th minute Tyrone May had put the visitors in front, 20-22, with Martin again adding the extras. Hull KR held that lead for well over ten minutes and looked like they might have stolen it. Then Lino crossed himself in the 77th to level it at 24-24, and his conversion a minute later made it 26-24. Wakefield got home by two.

The stat sheet explains why Wakefield kept finding an answer every time Hull KR scored. They ran for 1,187 metres to Hull KR's 1,053, broke the line six times to two, and busted 44 tackles to 19. That's not a marginal edge, that's a side finding space all night.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,187** | Run metres | 1,053 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **44** | Tackle busts | 19 |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 10 | Errors | **5** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 10 | Errors | 5 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |
| 1 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 79% prediction for Hull KR, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (44/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 5 · Hull KR 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 79.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR -1.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 6 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 79% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 145 ELO points clear, 1753 to 1608. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 37. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 33.2pts | Avg Score | 45.2pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 7.6pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Margin | 37.6pts |
| 1294.4m | Run Metres | 1549.0m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 299.2 | Tackles | 296.8 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W | 33.2 |
| Hull KR | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 45.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Hull KR | 6 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2025 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 28 – 12 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 14 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2023 | R27 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 56 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 8th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.36 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 4th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.58/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.55/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.55/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 4th (strong)) | 3.36/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.09/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 20 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 132m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 23 | 29 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 465m/g | 658m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 78.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 325m/g | 310m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.27) -7% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.48) -31% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.25) +60% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.48) +25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 33' |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·1·1·2·2·3·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 6/4g | 90% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/14g | 28% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 6 in 4g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·4) | 14/17g | 8/13g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 3/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/15g | 12% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 1/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 6% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 38% | — | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 2/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1) | 0/3g | 9/17g | 23% | — | — |
| 17 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1) | 12/14g | 1/2g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 11 in 9g | 13/10g (2·0·1·1·1·3·2·2·1·0) | 13/11g | 0/1g | 62% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (0·2·0·3·0·0·4·1·0·3) | 5/10g | 1/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Karl Lawton | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 16 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1608 · Hull KR 1753 · ELO difference: 145 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)