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Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

Fri 5 June5:00am
LEELEE
STHSTH
Sat 6 June5:00am
WARWAR
HULHUL
Sat 6 June5:00am
BRDBRD
YRKYRK
Sat 6 June5:00am
CASCAS
LEILEI
Sun 7 June12:00am
HUDHUD
TOUTOU
Sun 7 June1:30am
WAKWAK
HKRHKR
Sun 7 June3:30am
CATCAT
WIGWIG
LEE
Leeds Rhinos
VS
STH
St Helens
VENUE: AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 5 JUNE, 5:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
24
16

Scoring Breakdown

RhinosSt Helens
3Tries3
3/3Conversions2/3
3/3Penalty Goals0/0
6Penalties Conceded13
10Errors9
1Sin Bins1
5Line Breaks3
37Tackle Busts23
7Offloads7
1008Metres835

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
🤔Questionable

Rhinos had a +7 penalty advantage. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.

PENS6 – 13
ERR10 – 9

AI Game Review

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 53% prediction for St Helens, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Leeds Rhinos trailed 8–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–16. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 40.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Leeds Rhinos firmly in control (99%)
LEE24
99%80'1%
16ST
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← St Helens momentumMomentum +84Leeds Rhinos momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

53%St HelensFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

47%

St Helens

53%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Helens a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Leeds Rhinos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but St Helens counter with H2H History which tips the scales. Leeds Rhinos carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1693 vs 1601).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @3.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.3%

✗

Line / Spread

St Helens -0.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

St Helens Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L
R12W

older → newer

39.6
St Helens
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12L
23.6

Avg Conceded

14.4

Leeds Rhinos

18.0

St Helens

Avg Margin

25.2

Leeds Rhinos

5.6

St Helens

Run Metres

1452

Leeds Rhinos

1335

St Helens

Clean Breaks

7.8

Leeds Rhinos

4.4

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 4-1
Sep 2025LEE 14 - 16 STH
Jul 2025LEE 0 - 6 STH
Jun 2025LEE 4 - 18 STH
May 2025LEE 17 - 4 STH
Feb 2024LEE 8 - 18 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1693Overall1601
STH
ELO difference: +93 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1028Forwards813
Best: 1382LEE +215Best: 1056
993Backs803
Best: 1211LEE +190Best: 937
1193Halves665
Best: 1193LEE +528Best: 665
600Hooker707
STH +107

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
STH
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
39.6pts
Avg Score
23.6pts
14.4pts
Avg Conceded
18.0pts
25.2pts
Avg Margin
5.6pts
1452.0m
Run Metres
1334.8m
7.8
Clean Breaks
4.4
270.8
Tackles
336.8
10.0
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
—
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

53%

St Helens predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: -0.1

1/4 match predictions correct