# Leeds Rhinos v St Helens — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 24 – 16 St Helens

_Leeds Rhinos hit back to charge down St Helens from 8 down._

Half time: 8 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 47% / St Helens 53% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 05 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Chris Hankinson (26'), Harry Newman (45'), Maika Sivo (76') · St Helens: Alex Walmsley (6' 1st), Kyle Feldt (30'), Tristan Sailor (39')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 53% | Lost |
| Leeds Rhinos | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 24–16 St Helens in Super League Round 13 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens did plenty right for long stretches at AMT Headingley Stadium, and for a while it looked like it might be enough. They were the tidier side with ball in hand, giving it up just 9 times to Leeds Rhinos' 10, and they made the extra concentration count early. Alex Walmsley barrelled over inside six minutes to open the scoring, Tristan Sailor added a try of his own either side of the break, and Kyle Feldt got in for a third. At 16-8 up at half-time, St Helens had done the hard part.

What they couldn't do was stay out of the referee's notebook. Thirteen penalties conceded to Leeds Rhinos' six is a brutal split, and against a side with Jake Connor pulling the strings in the halves, that kind of discipline gap was always going to get punished eventually. It did. Connor kicked penalty goals either side of the hour to drag Leeds level and then back in front, neither of them off a passage of St Helens' own making.

The other number that tells the story is territory. Leeds Rhinos ran for 996 metres to St Helens' 823, breaking the line five times to three and busting 37 tackles to 23. St Helens matched them for offloads at seven apiece, but couldn't get out of their own half often enough to make it matter. That gap lines up with the pre-match read too: Leeds came in rated well clear in the halves, 1193 to 665, and a forward pack edge of 1028 to 813. On the day, that superiority showed up exactly where you'd expect, in metres made and tackles broken.

Leeds Rhinos trailed for most of the contest but never let it get away from them, and the second half was where the form lines held up. Chris Hankinson had already levelled things at 6-6 before the break, but St Helens answered through Sailor to go into the sheds up 16-8. Harry Newman crossed just after half-time to make it 12-16, Connor's boot did the rest to level it at 16-16, and from there it turned into a penalty-goal arm wrestle that Leeds Rhinos were always better placed to win. Maika Sivo's try with four minutes left, converted by Connor, put it to bed at 24-16.

For St Helens, the last-five numbers going in flagged the risk: they'd been leaking 18 points a game on average and averaging 336.8 tackles made, both signs of a side doing a lot of defending. That profile matched the eye test here. Plenty of ball, plenty of effort, but not enough control when it counted, and 13 penalties gifted Leeds field position they didn't need to spend metres to find.

Alphr's model had this one nearly dead even pre-match, tipping St Helens by the barest 0.1 points and picking a combined total of 39 against an actual 40, which is about as close as a total prediction gets. The margin call was fair too, just facing the wrong way. Both picks missed, but the model's read on how tight this would be held up better than most.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **996** | Run metres | 823 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **37** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 7 | Offloads | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 13 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 13 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 53% prediction for St Helens, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Leeds Rhinos trailed 8–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–16. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (42/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 6 · St Helens 13.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 52.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 0 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Leeds Rhinos and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on St Helens at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Leeds Rhinos sit 93 ELO points clear, 1693 to 1601, so the model is backing St Helens against the ratings gap.

On paper Leeds Rhinos shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with St Helens, which says H2H History carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 39.6pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1458.4m | Run Metres | 1341.2m |
| 7.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 270.8 | Tackles | 336.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W | 39.6 |
| St Helens | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | St Helens | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | EF | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 16 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R18 | Leeds Rhinos | 0 – 6 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | St Helens | 18 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | St Helens | 4 – 17 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.83 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Murphy, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.58/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 7th) | 0.83/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 3 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 147m/g | 210m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 90.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 19 | 24 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 335m/g | 487m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 16.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 84.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 4 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 345m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · Wingers 0.8/g (lg 0.97) -18%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.18) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fergus McCormack | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 19 in 11g | 17/10g (4·3·0·3·0·1·1·3·1·1) | 0/0g | 13/6g | 81% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/15g | 14/28g | 26% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 6/17g | 10/21g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/22g | 5/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (1·2·1·1·0·4·1·2·0·1) | 2/9g | 14/29g | 48% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/17g | 3/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/32g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/19g | 17% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 8/31g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/23g | 4/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Keenan Palasia | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 4/25g | 12% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 7 in 8g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 71% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 6 | George Whitby | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/20g | 0/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/26g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Shane Wright | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Davies | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1693 · St Helens 1601 · ELO difference: 93 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — St Helens favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)