AI Win Probability
Leeds Rhinos
47%
St Helens
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Helens a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Leeds Rhinos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but St Helens counter with H2H History which tips the scales. Leeds Rhinos carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1693 vs 1601).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @3.00
Edge
+19.3%
Line / Spread
St Helens -0.1 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens Draw @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Leeds Rhinos | R8W R9W R10W R11L R12W older → newer | 39.6 |
St Helens | R8W R9W R10W R11W R12L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
14.4
Leeds Rhinos
18.0
St Helens
Avg Margin
25.2
Leeds Rhinos
5.6
St Helens
Run Metres
1452
Leeds Rhinos
1335
St Helens
Clean Breaks
7.8
Leeds Rhinos
4.4
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
St Helens predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: -0.1