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Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

VENUE: FLAIR STADIUM • SUNDAY 7 JUNE, 12:00 AM AEST

AI Win Probability

52%Toulouse OlympiqueFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

48%

Toulouse Olympique

52%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Toulouse Olympique a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Toulouse Olympique ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Toulouse Olympique carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1351 vs 1310). Recent form favours Toulouse Olympique with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Toulouse Olympique by 3.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Toulouse Olympique to Win @3.30

Edge

+22.2%

Line / Spread

Toulouse Olympique -3.9 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Toulouse Olympique 1-12 @3.30

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11L
R12L

older → newer

12.0
Toulouse Olympique
R8L
R9L
R10W
R11L
R12L
12.0

Avg Conceded

39.6

Huddersfield Giants

26.8

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

-27.6

Huddersfield Giants

-14.8

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1050

Huddersfield Giants

1133

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

3.6

Huddersfield Giants

3.4

Toulouse Olympique

H2H History (Last 2)Huddersfield Giants lead 2-0
Jun 2022HUD 17 - 16 TO
Mar 2022HUD 42 - 14 TO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1351 vs 1310), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.43).

The model sides with ELO, Toulouse Olympique predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1310Overall1351
TO
ELO difference: -41 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

739Forwards810
Best: 989TO +72Best: 1048
685Backs867
Best: 742TO +182Best: 995
1000Halves891
Best: 1000HUD +109Best: 891
675Hooker1198
TO +524

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
TO
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
12.0pts
Avg Score
12.0pts
39.6pts
Avg Conceded
26.8pts
-27.6pts
Avg Margin
-14.8pts
1050.0m
Run Metres
1133.4m
3.6
Clean Breaks
3.4
326.2
Tackles
357.6
11.2
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Olympique
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Olympique
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Olympique
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Olympique
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

52%

Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -3.9