# Huddersfield Giants v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 16 – 36 Toulouse Olympique

_Toulouse Olympique see off Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 10 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 48% / Toulouse Olympique 52% · Flair Stadium · Sun, 07 June, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Joe Greenwood (9'), George Flanagan (35'), Jacob Gagai (56') · Toulouse Olympique: Henry O'Kane (3' 1st), Paul Ulberg (13'), Mathieu Jussaume (23'), Ethan Quai-Ward (27'), Mathieu Jussaume (48'), Henry O'Kane (70' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 52% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 16–36 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 13 at Flair Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Huddersfield Giants actually won a couple of the small battles. They gave away fewer penalties, 4 to Toulouse's 7, and they shaded the offload count, 13 to 9, which suggests a side still willing to play with some ambition when it wasn't going their way. None of it mattered much by full time.

The scoreline read 36-16 to Toulouse Olympique at Flair Stadium, and the shape of the game was set early. Henry O'Kane crossed inside three minutes, Jake Shorrocks added the extras, and by the 28th minute, after tries to Paul Ulberg, Mathieu Jussaume and Ethan Quai-Ward, it was 4-22. Huddersfield's only response in that stretch was a Joe Greenwood try in the 9th. George Flanagan got one back just before the break to make it 10-24 at half-time, but the door was already most of the way shut.

Where it actually slipped for Huddersfield was in the areas that decide these things: go-forward and line-breaks. Toulouse ran for 1,276 metres to Huddersfield's 1,104, and broke the line six times to two. That's the story of the tries column too. Six-try to three, and Toulouse's back line did the damage that had been flagged pre-match, coming in with a backs rating of 867 against Huddersfield's 685. The hooker gap was even starker, 1198 to 675, and it showed in how easily Toulouse found their strike players around the ruck.

Huddersfield's second half wasn't nothing. Jacob Gagai crossed in the 56th minute, Flanagan converted, and for a moment it was 16-30 with real time still on the clock. But Toulouse had an answer ready, O'Kane grabbing his second in the 70th to push it out to 20 points and put it beyond argument.

Mathieu Jussaume finished with two tries, either side of half-time, in the 23rd and 48th minutes, and O'Kane's brace bookended the match almost perfectly, opening it in the 3rd and closing it in the 70th. That's the kind of spread across four separate periods of the game that tells you Huddersfield never really found a way to shut the door.

Form lines had this coming, in fairness. Huddersfield arrived on a run of five straight losses, conceding an average of 39.6 points across that stretch, and 36 fits that pattern without much argument. Toulouse had won one of their last five but were still leaking under 27 a game on average, and Huddersfield's 16 wasn't enough to trouble that number either.

Alphr's model had Toulouse Olympique favourites at 52%, with ratings of 1351 against Huddersfield's 1310, and picked the raw outcome correctly. The margin was another matter. A predicted 3.9 points blew out to 20 on the day, and the model went 2 from 4 on this one overall. Toulouse covered the 6.5-point line with room to spare, which is really the whole story in one figure: this was never as close as the pre-match number suggested.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1,104 | Run metres | **1,276** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| **13** | Offloads | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 6 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 6/6 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 6.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 4 · Toulouse Olympique 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 52.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +6.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Huddersfield Giants and Toulouse Olympique. The model can't split them, landing on Toulouse Olympique at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Toulouse Olympique sit 41 ELO points clear, 1351 to 1310. Form leans Toulouse Olympique's way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

Toulouse Olympique own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Toulouse Olympique by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 12.0pts | Avg Score | 12.0pts |
| 39.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| -27.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.8pts |
| 1076.6m | Run Metres | 1170.2m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 333.2 | Tackles | 360.0 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 12.0 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L | 12.0 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Huddersfield Giants lead 3-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Toulouse Olympique | 10 – 26 | Huddersfield Giants | Huddersfield Giants 50% ✓ |
| 2022 | R13 | Huddersfield Giants | 17 – 16 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R1 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 42 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 13th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.42/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 10th) | 0.75/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.42/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.83/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.92/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 15 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 115m/g | 137m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 29 | 23 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 454m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 19.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 82.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 303m/g | 291m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.1/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.06) +183% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.48) +92% · Wingers 1.75/g (lg 0.97) +80%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.18) +94% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.48) +48% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.2) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Flair Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Taane Milne | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 47% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Tuimoala Lolohea | 5/8 | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | George Flanagan | HB | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 46% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 8 | Tom Burgess | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 10 | George King | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 13 | Harry Rushton | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Rush | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew English | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Chris Patolo | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tristan Powell | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 8 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 3' 70' |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 23' 48' |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Bretherton | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1351 vs 1310), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.50). The model sides with ELO, Toulouse Olympique predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1310 · Toulouse Olympique 1351 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)