Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrGiants had a slight +3 penalty edge, but the overall balance was acceptable. No significant concerns.
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Huddersfield Giants
48%
Toulouse Olympique
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Toulouse Olympique a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Toulouse Olympique ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Toulouse Olympique carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1351 vs 1310). Recent form favours Toulouse Olympique with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Toulouse Olympique by 3.9 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Toulouse Olympique to Win @3.00
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.2%
Line / Spread
Huddersfield Giants -6.5 @1.85
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Toulouse Olympique 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.79
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Huddersfield Giants | R8L R9L R10L R11L R12L older → newer | 12.0 |
Toulouse Olympique | R8L R9L R10W R11L R12L | 12.0 |
Avg Conceded
39.6
Huddersfield Giants
26.8
Toulouse Olympique
Avg Margin
-27.6
Huddersfield Giants
-14.8
Toulouse Olympique
Run Metres
1050
Huddersfield Giants
1133
Toulouse Olympique
Clean Breaks
3.6
Huddersfield Giants
3.4
Toulouse Olympique
ELO–Market Disagreement
Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1351 vs 1310), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.50).
The model sides with ELO, Toulouse Olympique predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -3.9