AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
47%
Wigan Warriors
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wigan Warriors a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wigan Warriors counter with ELO Difference and H2H History which tips the scales. Wigan Warriors carry a 140-point ELO rating advantage (1579 vs 1439). The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 5.7 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wigan Warriors to Win @1.33
Edge
-21.7%
Line / Spread
Catalans Dragons +5.7 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R8W R9L R10L R11L R12W older → newer | 21.2 |
Wigan Warriors | R8L R9L R10W R11W R12L | 17.2 |
Avg Conceded
36.2
Catalans Dragons
25.4
Wigan Warriors
Avg Margin
-15.0
Catalans Dragons
-8.2
Wigan Warriors
Run Metres
1048
Catalans Dragons
1084
Wigan Warriors
Clean Breaks
5.0
Catalans Dragons
3.8
Wigan Warriors
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +5.7