# Catalans Dragons v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 16 – 40 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors conquer Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 47% / Wigan Warriors 53% · Stade Jean Bouin · Sun, 07 June, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Solomona Faataape (26'), Zac Lipowicz (43'), Chris Satae (72') · Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (3' 1st), Junior Nsemba (14'), George Marsden (31'), Jack Farrimond (35'), Jake Wardle (37'), Zach Eckersley (69'), Adam Keighran (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 53% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 16–40 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 13 at Stade Jean Bouin. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons arrived at Stade Jean Bouin rated the stronger side almost everywhere on paper, forwards, backs, and a halves pairing rated 1147 to Wigan's 600. On raw class this was meant to be a home job. What actually played out was Wigan running the ball more directly and finishing what they started, while Catalans looked laboured in comparison. Final score: Wigan Warriors 40, Catalans Dragons 16, and the gap between the two sides' approaches showed up everywhere in the stats sheet.

Wigan struck early and often. Jai Field opened the scoring in the third minute, Junior Nsemba added a second in the 14th, and Adam Keighran's boot had it 0-12 by the quarter-hour mark. Catalans hit back through Solomona Faataape in the 26th minute to make it 6-12, a score that in most games settles a home side down. Not here. Wigan responded with four scores in seven minutes: a Keighran penalty goal, then tries to George Marsden, Jack Farrimond and Jake Wardle, with Keighran converting twice more. By half-time it was 6-30.

The stats explain how that happened. Wigan broke the line eight times to Catalans' three, and busted 38 tackles to 33. Run metres were close, 1,239 to 1,146, so it wasn't that Catalans weren't putting the effort in, it's that the effort wasn't converting into anything. Eleven errors to seven tells the real story: Catalans kept handing the ball back at bad moments, while Wigan looked after possession and turned their share of it into points. Discipline played a small part too, Wigan gave away just 3 penalties to Catalans' 4.

The second half was mostly Catalans trying to find some respectability. Zac Lipowicz crossed in the 43rd minute to make it 10-30, but Wigan had an answer ready, Zach Eckersley scoring in the 69th to push the margin back to 24. Chris Satae's try in the 72nd, converted by Toby Sexton, brought it to 16-34 and briefly made the scoreboard interesting again. Adam Keighran, who'd already kicked seven goals, capped his night with a try of his own in the 74th to make it 16-40, and converted that too for good measure.

Keighran's fingerprints were on almost everything Wigan did with the boot and, eventually, with the ball in hand. Seven conversions, a penalty goal and a try is a serious return from one player in one match, and it's hard to point to a bigger factor in how comfortably the margin blew out.

Form lines going in hinted at this. Catalans had been conceding an average of 36.2 points a game across their last five, and their defence had the same problem again here, unable to hold a line for long stretches once Wigan got go-forward. Wigan's own recent form had been patchier, two wins and three losses in their last five, but none of that mattered once they found their rhythm in France.

Alphr's model called Wigan as 53% favourites beforehand, correctly picking the winner but badly missing the margin, tipping Catalans to lose by just 5.7 points rather than the 24 they actually went down by. The model's combined total of 41 points was also well short of the 56 the two sides produced between them. A correct result, but a result that arrived far more emphatically than anyone modelled for.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,146 | Run metres | **1,239** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 33 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| 9 | Offloads | **12** |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 7 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 6/8 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 7 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 56 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 1/4 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 4 · Wigan Warriors 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +8.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 6 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Catalans Dragons and Wigan Warriors. The model can't split them, landing on Wigan Warriors at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 140 ELO points clear, 1579 to 1439.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 36.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| -15.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.2pts |
| 1054.6m | Run Metres | 1091.2m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 319.4 | Tackles | 334.6 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 W | 21.2 |
| Wigan Warriors | R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 50 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 28 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 48 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 8 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 9th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Staines, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 0.92/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.67/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.83/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 9 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 109m/g | 90m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 80% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 26 | 37 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.3/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.6% | 80.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 9 | 3 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 228m/g | 405m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 93% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.27) -15% · Halfbacks 0.14/g (lg 0.18) -22%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.18) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Jean Bouin. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 5 | Matty Russell | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Franck Maria | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 15 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 11 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 58% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 5 | Noah Hodkinson | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 7 | George Marsden | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Kaide Ellis | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | George Oloughlin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1439 · Wigan Warriors 1579 · ELO difference: 140 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)