Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

Sun 7 June3:30am

CATCAT

WIGWIG

CAT

Catalans Dragons

WIG

Wigan Warriors

VENUE: STADE JEAN BOUIN • SUNDAY 7 JUNE, 3:30 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time

Scoring Breakdown

DragonsWarriors

3Tries7

2/3Conversions5/7

0/0Penalty Goals1/1

4Penalties Conceded3

8Errors7

1Sin Bins1

3Line Breaks9

33Tackle Busts39

8Offloads12

1145Metres1247

Ref Watch

by Alphr

AI Insight

✅Clean Game

Warriors had penalties evenly distributed (4-3). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS4 – 3

ERR8 – 7

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 56 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Wigan Warriors firmly in control (99%)

CAT16

1%80'99%

40WIG

← Wigan Warriors momentumMomentum -14Catalans Dragons momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

53%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

47%

Wigan Warriors

53%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wigan Warriors a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wigan Warriors counter with ELO Difference and H2H History which tips the scales. Wigan Warriors carry a 140-point ELO rating advantage (1579 vs 1439). The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 5.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.34

Winner ✓

Edge

-21.1%

✓

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -8.5 @1.92

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 43.5 @1.85

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons	R8W R9L R10L R11L R12W older → newer	21.2
Wigan Warriors	R8L R9L R10W R11W R12L	17.2

Avg Conceded

36.2

Catalans Dragons

25.4

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

-15.0

Catalans Dragons

-8.2

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1048

Catalans Dragons

1084

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

5.0

Catalans Dragons

3.8

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

Aug 2025CAT 4 - 40 WIG

Jul 2025CAT 18 - 28 WIG

May 2025CAT 0 - 48 WIG

Feb 2024CAT 8 - 30 WIG

Aug 2024CAT 18 - 26 WIG

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT

1439Overall1579

WIG

ELO difference: -140 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

801Forwards746

Best: 1001CAT +55Best: 1003

1085Backs777

Best: 1421CAT +309Best: 919

1147Halves600

Best: 1147CAT +547Best: 600

992Hooker600

CAT +392

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT

Stat

WIG

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

21.2pts

Avg Score

17.2pts

36.2pts

Avg Conceded

25.4pts

-15.0pts

Avg Margin

-8.2pts

1047.8m

Run Metres

1084.4m

5.0

Clean Breaks

3.8

319.4

Tackles

334.6

10.4

Errors

10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference15.0%

Warriors

Forward Pack12.0%

Dragons

Backline Quality10.0%

Dragons

Recent Win Rate10.0%

—

Halves Control9.0%

Dragons

Venue Advantage8.0%

—

H2H History6.0%

Warriors

Model Confidence

53%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +5.7

2/4 match predictions correct