# Castleford Tigers v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 14 – 24 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards hunt down Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 8 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 25% / Leigh Leopards 75% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 06 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Jason Qareqare (1' 1st), George Lawler (55') · Leigh Leopards: Jacob Alick-Wiencke (22'), Innes Senior (25'), Jack Hughes (43'), Adam Cook (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 75% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 14–24 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 13 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Leigh Leopards by 5.1 and a total of 36. The actual result was Leigh Leopards by 10, 24-14, total 38. Close enough on both counts, and the 75% win probability was never seriously tested. Castleford led early, but the shape of the match still ended up looking exactly like the ratings said it would.

That early lead came from Jason Qareqare, over inside the first minute, then a Tom Weaver penalty goal on 17 minutes had Castleford up 8-0. On the raw form numbers that shouldn't have happened. Leigh came in averaging 27.8 points a game to Castleford's 18.8, and conceding just 13.2 to Castleford's 28.4. The Tigers' start looked like a form line getting torn up.

It didn't last. Leigh scored three times in an 11-minute window either side of half-time, Jacob Alick-Wiencke at 22, Innes Senior at 25, then Jack Hughes straight after the resumption at 43. That's 8-0 becoming 8-18 without Castleford landing a response, and it's where the match was actually decided. Adam Cook was perfect off the tee all afternoon, four from four conversions.

Castleford did find another gear. George Lawler crossed on 55 minutes, Weaver's conversion made it 14-18, and for a few minutes the margin looked gettable. Adam Cook shut that down himself with a try at 65 to restore Leigh's buffer, and his own conversion sealed it at 14-24.

The gap between the two halves and the sides shows up in the pre-match ratings. Leigh's backs were rated 1208 to Castleford's 842, the halves 1269 to 818. That's not a marginal edge, it's a chasm, and it matches how the game actually swung once Leigh's spine got involved from the 22nd minute onward. Castleford's hooker rating of 877 to Leigh's 693 was the one category running the other way, and it probably explains why the Tigers were the tidier side with ball in hand, only 6 errors to Leigh's 7, and why they piled up 1,701 running metres to Leigh's 1,365.

But metres without breaks don't win games like this. Leigh broke the line 5 times to Castleford's 4, offloaded 11 times to 8, and made hay with fewer touches. Castleford actually won the tackle-bust count 36 to 26, which says a lot about effort and not much about outcome. Discipline barely came into it, 3 penalties to 4, nothing decisive there.

Form lines held too. Leigh arrived on a WWWLW run and an average margin of plus 14.6, Castleford on WLLWW and minus 9.6. On the day Leigh's margin was plus 10, just shy of their own average, while Castleford's minus 10 landed close to their season trend as well. The model's 1-12 margin band call and its lean to the under on 41.5 both came in, and a 5.1-point predicted margin against an actual 10 isn't a bad miss for a team the ratings had as considerable underdogs early. The scoreboard flirted with an upset for twenty minutes. The ratings got the last word.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,701** | Run metres | 1,365 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **36** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| 8 | Offloads | **11** |
| **6** | Errors | 7 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 6 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 5.1 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 36 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 41.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · Leigh Leopards 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 75.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +7.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 5 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 75% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 148 ELO points clear, 1560 to 1412. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Castleford Tigers.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 36. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leigh Leopards to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| -9.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.6pts |
| 1140.4m | Run Metres | 1375.0m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 311.0 | Tackles | 288.2 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W | 18.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards 79% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 20 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 28 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 10th there (2.08 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Charnley, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) | 1.42/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.92/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 8th) | 1.58/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.08/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.42/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.08/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 4 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 79m/g | 115m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 34 | 26 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 361m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.3/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 86.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 13 | 7 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 261m/g | 377m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · Wingers 1.5/g (lg 0.97) +55% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 0/1g | 6/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 1' |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Stimson | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | George Lawler | LK | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Brock Greacen | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 25% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 3 | Bailey Hodgson | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Hughes | CE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/22g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 13 in 12g | 12/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·2·2·1·3) | 16/21g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Gareth O'Brien | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1412 · Leigh Leopards 1560 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)