Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

Sat 6 June5:00am

CASCAS

LEILEI

CAS

Castleford Tigers

LEI

Leigh Leopards

VENUE: THE ONEBORE STADIUM • SATURDAY 6 JUNE, 5:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time

Scoring Breakdown

TigersLeopards

2Tries4

2/2Conversions4/4

1/1Penalty Goals0/0

4Penalties Conceded3

6Errors6

4Line Breaks5

37Tackle Busts27

8Offloads11

1717Metres1371

Ref Watch

by Alphr

AI Insight

✅Clean Game

Leopards had penalties evenly distributed (4-3). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS4 – 3

ERR6 – 6

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 5.1 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 36 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Leigh Leopards firmly in control (99%)

CAS14

1%80'99%

24LEI

← Leigh Leopards momentumMomentum +0Castleford Tigers momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

75%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Castleford Tigers

25%

Leigh Leopards

75%

✨

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1412). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 5.1 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.34

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -7.5 @1.79

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 41.5 @1.85

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Castleford Tigers	R8W R9L R10L R11W R12W older → newer	18.8
Leigh Leopards	R8W R9W R10W R11L R12W	27.8

Avg Conceded

28.4

Castleford Tigers

13.2

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-9.6

Castleford Tigers

14.6

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1133

Castleford Tigers

1368

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

3.8

Castleford Tigers

7.2

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-0

Aug 2025CAS 6 - 46 LEI

Apr 2025CAS 6 - 20 LEI

Feb 2024CAS 28 - 28 LEI

Sep 2024CAS 12 - 34 LEI

Jul 2024CAS 10 - 20 LEI

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAS

1412Overall1560

LEI

ELO difference: -148 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

853Forwards833

Best: 1100CAS +20Best: 1125

842Backs1208

Best: 1083LEI +366Best: 1557

818Halves1269

Best: 818LEI +451Best: 1269

877Hooker693

CAS +183

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAS

Stat

LEI

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

18.8pts

Avg Score

27.8pts

28.4pts

Avg Conceded

13.2pts

-9.6pts

Avg Margin

14.6pts

1132.8m

Run Metres

1368.2m

3.8

Clean Breaks

7.2

311.0

Tackles

288.2

8.4

Errors

9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference15.0%

Leopards

Forward Pack12.0%

Leopards

Backline Quality10.0%

Leopards

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Leopards

Halves Control9.0%

Leopards

Venue Advantage8.0%

—

H2H History6.0%

Leopards

Model Confidence

75%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: -5.1

4/4 match predictions correct