AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
25%
Leigh Leopards
75%
AI Match Overview
Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1412). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 5.1 points with a combined total of 36.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leigh Leopards to Win @1.37
Edge
+2.0%
Line / Spread
Leigh Leopards -5.1 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R8W R9L R10L R11W R12W older → newer | 18.8 |
Leigh Leopards | R8W R9W R10W R11L R12W | 27.8 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Castleford Tigers
13.2
Leigh Leopards
Avg Margin
-9.6
Castleford Tigers
14.6
Leigh Leopards
Run Metres
1133
Castleford Tigers
1368
Leigh Leopards
Clean Breaks
3.8
Castleford Tigers
7.2
Leigh Leopards
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 36 · Line: -5.1