Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrBulls had penalties evenly distributed (9-10). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bradford Bulls to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 10 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 42.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bradford Bulls
62%
York Knights
38%
AI Match Overview
Bradford Bulls hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though York Knights are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bradford Bulls ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bradford Bulls carry a 56-point ELO rating advantage (1392 vs 1336). The margin model predicts York Knights by 2.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bradford Bulls to Win @1.34
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.2%
Line / Spread
Bradford Bulls -8.5 @1.92
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
York Knights 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 42.5 @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bradford Bulls | R8L R9L R10L R11W R12L older → newer | 13.2 |
York Knights | R8L R9W R10L R11L R12L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
35.6
Bradford Bulls
26.4
York Knights
Avg Margin
-22.4
Bradford Bulls
-6.4
York Knights
Run Metres
1098
Bradford Bulls
1294
York Knights
Clean Breaks
2.4
Bradford Bulls
3.2
York Knights
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.8