# Bradford Bulls v York Knights — Super League Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 30 – 20 York Knights

_Bradford Bulls see off York Knights._

Half time: 8 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 62% / York Knights 38% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Sat, 06 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Jayden Nikorima (31'), Joe Mellor (55'), Riley Dean (72'), Eribe Doro (75') · York Knights: David Nofoaluma (18' 1st), David Nofoaluma (41' 1st), David Nofoaluma (69' 1st), Liam Harris (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | 62% | Won |
| York Knights | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 02:18 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Bradford Bulls 30–20 York Knights in Super League Round 13 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls led by four points with twelve minutes left and it still felt like anyone's game. Then it wasn't. York Knights got within 18-14 through David Nofoaluma's third try and a Cody Hunter conversion at the 70th minute, and from there Bradford scored three times in six minutes, Riley Dean going over and converting his own try at 72', Eribe Doro crashing over at 75', Dean's boot doing the rest. By the 76th minute it was 30-14 and the contest was done. York's Liam Harris got a late one back to make the final margin look tighter than the match actually was.

Final score: Bradford Bulls 30, York Knights 20. At half-time it was 8-4, a penalty goal and a converted try the difference, nothing that suggested the gap Bradford would eventually put on the board.

The stat sheet explains why Bradford could turn a four-point game into a rout when it mattered. They ran for 1,508 metres to York's 1,241, busted 37 tackles to 22, and offloaded the ball 16 times against York's 5. That's not a marginal edge, that's a side finding go-forward at will in the back end of the game while York's line speed dropped off. Six line breaks to four backs it up. Discipline mattered too: Bradford conceded 9 penalties to York's 10, not a huge gap, but enough that Riley Dean's boot kept ticking over with penalty goals at 38', 50' and 66', each one a small brick in the eventual wall.

Dean was the story with ball and boot both, a try of his own plus the conversions and penalty goals that did the heavy lifting either side of Bradford's late surge. On York's side, David Nofoaluma was the one man doing anything about it, a hat-trick that kept his side in touch deep into the second half before the Bulls pulled away. Liam Harris got the other York try, too little too late by the 78th minute.

York's form coming in had them averaging more points and fewer conceded than Bradford over their last five, and their backline rating of 864 against Bradford's 607 suggested they'd have the edge out wide. They didn't get to use it. Bradford's forward pack, rated 912 to York's 785, dominated the collisions all night, and that's exactly where 37 tackle busts and 16 offloads come from. Errors told a similar story, Bradford coughing it up 8 times to York's 10, just enough control to keep building pressure while York had to defend more than they'd have liked.

Alphr's model had Bradford as 62% favourites and got the winner right, but the margin read was well off, tipping York Knights by 2.8 points when Bradford won by 10. The over on 42.5 total points landed, and so did the 1-12 margin band, so three from four isn't a bad night's work even with the head-to-head pick wrong. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,508** | Run metres | 1,241 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **37** | Tackle busts | 22 |
| **16** | Offloads | 5 |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| **9** | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bradford Bulls to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 10 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (25/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 9 · York Knights 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bradford Bulls to win — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +8.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bradford Bulls 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bradford Bulls are the call at 62%, but York Knights stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bradford Bulls sit 56 ELO points clear, 1392 to 1336.

Bradford Bulls own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has York Knights by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Bradford Bulls, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 13.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 35.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| -22.4pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 1105.4m | Run Metres | 1302.0m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 321.0 | Tackles | 323.0 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 L | 13.2 |
| York Knights | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | York Knights | 35 – 16 | Bradford Bulls | York Knights 53% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 9th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Galeano, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.42/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.17/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.75/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.58/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 1.17/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 116m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 30 | 18 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 498m/g | 442m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 87.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 9 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 279m/g | 300m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Hookers 0.25/g (lg 0.11) +127% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.25) +100% · Wingers 1.58/g (lg 0.97) +63%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.25/g (lg 0.06) +317% · Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.2) +110% · 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.27) +85%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Ed Chamberlain | CE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 43% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Riley Dean | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 19% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Eribe Doro | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 3% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 14 | Christopher Atkin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Dagger | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Toa Mata'afa | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 5 | David Nofoaluma | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | 🏉 18' 41' 69' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Liam Harris | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Harvey Reynolds | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | King Vuniyayawa | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1392 · York Knights 1336 · ELO difference: 56 in favour of Bradford Bulls

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)