# York Knights v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 22 – 36 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons torch York Knights._

Half time: 0 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 72% / Catalans Dragons 28% · LNER Community Stadium · Sun, 24 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Denive Balmforth (45'), Will Roberts (58'), Denive Balmforth (72'), David Nofoaluma (75') · Catalans Dragons: Matty Russell (16' 1st), Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (40'), Solomona Faataape (43'), Toby Sexton (49'), Ugo Tison (65'), Charlie Staines (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 72% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 28% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 22–36 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 12 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights actually finished with four tries to Catalans Dragons' six, and for a side that shipped 36 points, that's not nothing. Denive Balmforth crossed twice, Will Roberts and David Nofoaluma got one each, and in the closing stretch York Knights looked like a side capable of making a real fist of it. The trouble is where all that scoring landed on the clock, and what had already happened before it did.

Catalans Dragons led 0-6 at the break, and it wasn't a scrappy half. Matty Russell opened the account in the 16th minute, and then the Dragons put together the passage that decided the contest: a penalty goal right on half-time, followed by tries from Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet and Solomona Faataape either side of the changeover. By the 44th minute it was 0-18. York Knights hadn't laid a hand on the scoreboard yet.

When Balmforth finally got them off the mark in the 45th, it read like the start of something. It wasn't. Toby Sexton restored an 18-point buffer for Catalans four minutes later, and every time York Knights clawed back within striking range, Catalans had an answer ready: Ugo Tison in the 65th, Charlie Staines in the 77th. Nofoaluma's try with three minutes left made the final margin look respectable. It was still 14 points short.

The stat sheet explains why York Knights never really threatened to complete the comeback. Catalans ran 1,330 metres to York's 1,198, but the bigger gap was in what they did with the ball in hand: 10 line breaks to 3, 58 tackle busts to 29, 11 offloads to 5. That's not a marginal edge, that's a side finding space at will. York Knights' 15 errors to Catalans' 10 only compounded the problem, handing back ball that a team playing with that much room didn't need twice.

York Knights did hold the penalty count, conceding 7 to Catalans' 8, and their forward pack rated stronger going in, 869 to 708. None of it mattered much when the halves and outside backs kept finding the same soft edges. Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet finished with a try, a conversion set, and the penalty goal that opened the second-half surge, about as complete an individual shift as you'll see in a losing team's concession column.

For context, York Knights arrived running 1,332.8 metres a game across their last five, well clear of Catalans' 1,016. Reverse that trend on the day and lose by 14 anyway, and it tells you the gap was about efficiency with the ball rather than volume of it.

Alphr's model had York Knights favoured at 72% and tipped them by 1.7 points on a combined total of 38. The actual margin ran the other way by 14, and the two sides put up 58 between them, 20 more than projected. Both the winner pick and the margin missed, comprehensively.

Catalans Dragons came in having lost three of their last five, conceding an average of 37 points a game. On this occasion, York Knights' 22 barely troubled that number, and the Dragons' six-try haul did the rest.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1,198 | Run metres | **1,330** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 29 | Tackle busts | **58** |
| 5 | Offloads | **11** |
| 15 | Errors | **10** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 6 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 6/7 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 15 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 72% prediction for York Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 58 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 38. Catalans Dragons led 0–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties York Knights 7 · Catalans Dragons 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 72.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 2 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on York Knights here: 72% to see off Catalans Dragons. The ratings say otherwise: Catalans Dragons sit 49 ELO points clear, 1412 to 1364, so the model is backing York Knights against the ratings gap. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for York Knights.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with York Knights, which says Forward Pack and Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has York Knights by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back York Knights to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 37.0pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | -16.4pts |
| 1332.8m | Run Metres | 1016.0m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 337.0 | Tackles | 319.0 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L | 18.4 |
| Catalans Dragons | R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Catalans Dragons | 16 – 28 | York Knights | Catalans Dragons 62% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 11th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Galeano, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 12th there (2.45 conceded/game). Key man: Staines, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.45/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 10th) | 0.91/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.55/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.45/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.55/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.55/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.27/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 8th) | 0.91/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 113m/g | 105m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 27 | 22 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 448m/g | 496m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 80.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 301m/g | 225m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 92% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.25) +80% · Wingers 1.64/g (lg 0.97) +69% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Dagger | FB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (1·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 56% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 4/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Toa Mata'afa | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Will Roberts | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | King Vuniyayawa | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kieran Buchanan | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 25% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Paul McShane | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 10% | — | 🏉 45' 72' |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kieran Hudson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 13% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 5 | Matty Russell | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 7 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | HB | 0 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Franck Maria | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Catalans Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1412 vs 1364), but the market favours York Knights (@1.38). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1364 · Catalans Dragons 1412 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — York Knights predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)