York Knights
Catalans Dragons
AI Win Probability
York Knights
72%
Catalans Dragons
28%
AI Match Overview
York Knights are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but York Knights counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales. Catalans Dragons carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1412 vs 1364). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for York Knights. The margin model predicts York Knights by 1.7 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
York Knights to Win @1.38
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
York Knights +1.7 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
York Knights 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
York Knights | R7L R8L R9W R10L R11L older → newer | 18.4 |
Catalans Dragons | R7W R8W R9L R10L R11L | 20.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.0
York Knights
37.0
Catalans Dragons
Avg Margin
-7.6
York Knights
-16.4
Catalans Dragons
Run Metres
1325
York Knights
1010
Catalans Dragons
Clean Breaks
3.8
York Knights
4.4
Catalans Dragons
ELO–Market Disagreement
Catalans Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1412 vs 1364), but the market favours York Knights (@1.38).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
York Knights predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +1.7