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Super League | Round 12

alphr.com.au

HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SUNDAY 24 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

2612
BRD

Bradford Bulls

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 82%

AI Win Probability

82%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

82%

Bradford Bulls

18%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bradford Bulls. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warrington Wolves carry a 185-point ELO rating advantage (1593 vs 1408). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 23.3 points with a combined total of 53.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +23.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 13-24 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R7W
R8L
R9W
R10W
R11W

older → newer

29.0
Bradford Bulls
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11W
13.2

Avg Conceded

14.0

Warrington Wolves

35.2

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

15.0

Warrington Wolves

-22.0

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

1323

Warrington Wolves

1085

Bradford Bulls

Clean Breaks

6.8

Warrington Wolves

2.6

Bradford Bulls

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1593Overall1408
BRD
ELO difference: +185 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

879Forwards889
Best: 1244EvenBest: 1214
1052Backs726
Best: 1202WAR +326Best: 810
705Halves746
Best: 705BRD +41Best: 746
713Hooker890
BRD +177

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
BRD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
29.0pts
Avg Score
13.2pts
14.0pts
Avg Conceded
35.2pts
15.0pts
Avg Margin
-22.0pts
1323.2m
Run Metres
1084.6m
6.8
Clean Breaks
2.6
317.2
Tackles
338.2
8.6
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

82%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 23 points

Predicted total: 53 · Line: +23.3

3/4 match predictions correct