# Warrington Wolves v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 26 – 12 Bradford Bulls

_Warrington Wolves run down Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 82% / Bradford Bulls 18% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Mon, 25 May, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (4' 1st), Luke Thomas (10'), Albert Hopoate (29'), Ewan Irwin (49'), Matty Ashton (59') · Bradford Bulls: Jamie Gill (35'), Jayden Nikorima (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 82% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 23.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 26–12 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 12 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington played with the ball. Bradford ran at it. That's the contrast that decided things, and it's why Warrington Wolves beat Bradford Bulls 26-12 at Halliwell Jones Stadium.

Josh Thewlis opened the scoring inside four minutes, and Warrington were out to 14-0 by the 29th minute through Luke Thomas and Albert Hopoate. Bradford's reply came from Jamie Gill just before the break, Chris Atkin's conversion making it 14-6 at half-time. Warrington had the platform, and they never gave it up.

The second half followed the same script. Ewan Irwin scored and converted his own try in the 49th and 50th minutes to make it 20-6, then Matty Ashton crossed in the 59th, Irwin's boot pushing it out to 26-6. Jayden Nikorima got one back for Bradford in the 68th, Luke Hooley's conversion trimming it to 26-12, but by then Warrington had banked too much.

The stat sheet backs up the eye test. Bradford actually ran for more raw effort than the scoreboard suggests, 1,096 metres to Warrington's 1,442, but they coughed the ball up 15 times to Warrington's 13. Warrington broke the line 10 times to Bradford's 2 and busted 31 tackles to 22. Running hard counts for less when you keep handing the ball back with errors.

Warrington's backs were rated well clear of Bradford's coming in, 1052 to 726, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect it to: out wide, in the broken field, in the line break count. Bradford actually rated ahead in two key spots, at hooker (890 to 713) and in the halves (746 to 705), but a stronger spine on paper didn't stop Warrington's outside men finding space whenever it mattered.

Bradford can point to the penalty count, conceding just 4 to Warrington's 7, and call that a small win on the night. It wasn't nearly enough to offset the rest. Warrington came in on the back of a WLWWW run and an average margin of plus-15 across their last five, while Bradford arrived having lost four of their previous five and conceding an average of 35.2 points across that stretch. Nothing in this result suggested that trend was about to reverse.

Alphr's model had Warrington favourites at 82% probability before kickoff, with a projected margin of 23.3 points and a combined total of 53. The final gap of 14 points landed under that projection, and the 38 points scored came in well shy of the predicted total, but the head-to-head call and the margin direction both held up. Two picks, two hits.

Warrington's clean footwork with ball in hand, patient rather than frantic, was the difference across 80 minutes. Bradford ran themselves into the ground and still finished with less to show for it. That's the story the numbers tell, and it's the one that matters more than any highlight reel.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,442** | Run metres | 1,096 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 22 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **13** | Errors | 15 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 13 | Errors | 15 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 82% probability. The predicted margin of 23.3 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 38 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 53. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 7 · Bradford Bulls 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 82.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 23 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 82% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 185 ELO points clear, 1593 to 1408. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 23.3, with the two sides combining for about 53. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.0pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| 15.0pts | Avg Margin | -22.0pts |
| 1330.4m | Run Metres | 1092.2m |
| 6.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 317.2 | Tackles | 338.2 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 29.0 |
| Bradford Bulls | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Warrington Wolves lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Bradford Bulls | 4 – 42 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 65% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.3 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 9th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.82 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 12th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Wynne, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.3/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3.3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.82/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 176m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 92.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 21 | 23 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 420m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.2/g | 14/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 2 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 277m/g | 282m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.6% | 94% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.27/g (lg 0.06) +350% · Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.2) +125% · 2nd Rows 0.55/g (lg 0.27) +104%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.89/g (lg 0.97) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 7 in 9g | 9/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 28/53g | 50% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 21/44g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Samuel Powell | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 3% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 11 | Joe Philbin | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 16/67g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Walker | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/59g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·4·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/12g | 16% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 3 | Ed Chamberlain | CE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Connor Wynne | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 15% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Eribe Doro | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Souter | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Eliot Peposhi | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | William Gardiner | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Hallas | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Hallas | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Gill | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 16 | Leon Ruan | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1593 · Bradford Bulls 1408 · ELO difference: 185 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 23 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)