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Super League | Round 12

alphr.com.au

STADE ERNEST WALLON • SATURDAY 23 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
TO

Toulouse Olympique

1822
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 59%

AI Win Probability

59%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Toulouse Olympique

41%

Wakefield Trinity

59%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Toulouse Olympique are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wakefield Trinity carry a 238-point ELO rating advantage (1599 vs 1361). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 5.7 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.70

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity -5.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Toulouse Olympique
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10W
R11L

older → newer

13.6
Wakefield Trinity
R7W
R8W
R9L
R10L
R11W
35.6

Avg Conceded

29.0

Toulouse Olympique

16.0

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-15.4

Toulouse Olympique

19.6

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1161

Toulouse Olympique

1375

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

3.4

Toulouse Olympique

8.4

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 4)Toulouse Olympique lead 3-1
Mar 2026TO 18 - 16 WAK
Feb 2022TO 38 - 26 WAK
May 2022TO 20 - 14 WAK
Apr 2022TO 6 - 18 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

TO
1361Overall1599
WAK
ELO difference: -238 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

848Forwards978
Best: 1163WAK +129Best: 1286
716Backs903
Best: 793WAK +187Best: 1085
745Halves1023
Best: 745WAK +279Best: 1023
1206Hooker1274
WAK +68

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

TO
Stat
WAK
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
13.6pts
Avg Score
35.6pts
29.0pts
Avg Conceded
16.0pts
-15.4pts
Avg Margin
19.6pts
1161.0m
Run Metres
1374.6m
3.4
Clean Breaks
8.4
356.4
Tackles
300.8
11.6
Errors
12.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

59%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: -5.7

3/4 match predictions correct