# Toulouse Olympique v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 18 – 22 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity outlast a gallant Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 8 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 41% / Wakefield Trinity 59% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 24 May, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: James Roumanos (17' 1st), Olly Ashall-Bott (66'), Paul Ulberg (68') · Wakefield Trinity: Oliver Pratt (23'), Caius Faatili (26'), Jazz Tevaga (46'), Seth Nikotemo (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 59% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 18–22 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 12 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight points up and cruising, Toulouse Olympique found themselves 8-8 within nine minutes. That's the passage that decided this one. Jake Shorrocks had them 8-0 clear after James Roumanos crossed and converted his own penalty goal in the 13th, but Oliver Pratt and Caius Faatili replied either side of the 25-minute mark, and Josh Rourke's conversion had Wakefield Trinity 10-8 up at the break. From 8-0 to trailing at half-time. That's a rough 12 minutes for any home side.

The final score read Wakefield Trinity 22, Toulouse Olympique 18, and the manner of the comeback in that first half set the tone for everything after it.

Wakefield Trinity didn't just hold the lead, they extended it. Jazz Tevaga went over in the 46th minute, Seth Nikotemo added another in the 56th, and with both converted by Rourke it was 8-22 with just over 20 minutes left. Toulouse Olympique's response was real but late: Olly Ashall-Bott in the 66th, Paul Ulberg two minutes after that, and suddenly it was an 18-22 arm wrestle with everyone watching the clock. They ran out of it.

The stat sheet backs up a game that was tight everywhere except where it counted. Toulouse Olympique actually won the line-break count 6 to 4 and were sharper in the metres for a home side that trailed most of the night, but Wakefield Trinity ran for more overall, 1,201 to 1,152, and beat more defenders doing it, 22 tackle busts to 19. Add in the error count, 9 to 12 in Wakefield's favour, and you've got a team that looked after the ball better in the moments that mattered and made Toulouse Olympique work for everything.

None of that should shock anyone who'd looked at the sides going in. Wakefield Trinity brought the stronger pack on paper, 978 to 848, a backline rated well clear at 903 to 716, and halves that outweighed their opposite numbers by nearly 280 points, 1023 to 745. Form lined up too: Wakefield Trinity arrived with three wins from five and an average margin of plus-19.6, while Toulouse Olympique had won just once in five and were conceding at nearly 29 points a game. On the stats sheet alone this had one favourite.

Toulouse Olympique's night wasn't without substance. Three tries, a genuine edge in line breaks, and a finish that turned a laugher into a four-point margin. Roumanos got them moving early and Ashall-Bott and Ulberg gave the home crowd something in the last ten minutes. It just came too late against a side that had already banked 14 unanswered points either side of half-time.

Alphr's model had Wakefield Trinity as 59% favourites and picked them to win by 5.7. They won by four. Close enough that both calls landed clean, and close enough that Toulouse Olympique's late surge will sting a bit more than the final margin suggests.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,152 | Run metres | **1,201** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **22** |
| **8** | Offloads | 7 |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 59% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 5.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (34/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 8 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 59.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 6 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wakefield Trinity are the call at 59%, but Toulouse Olympique stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 238 ELO points clear, 1599 to 1361. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Toulouse Olympique.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Wakefield Trinity, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.6pts | Avg Score | 35.6pts |
| 29.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -15.4pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 1168.2m | Run Metres | 1381.4m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 8.4 |
| 356.4 | Tackles | 300.8 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L | 13.6 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 35.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Toulouse Olympique lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 18 | Toulouse Olympique | Wakefield Trinity 77% ✗ |
| 2022 | — | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 38 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R12 | Toulouse Olympique | 20 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2022 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 18 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 4th there (0.91 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.73/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.73/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.64/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.09/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 6th) | 1.64/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 9th) | 1.73/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 4 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 143m/g | 140m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 32 | 36 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 545m/g | 473m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 85.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 4 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 286m/g | 324m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.25) +52% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Centres 0.62/g (lg 0.48) +29%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.18/g (lg 0.06) +200% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.48) +108% · Props 0.27/g (lg 0.14) +93%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 2/1g | 2/4g | 43% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Ethan Quai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Shorrocks | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | James Roumanos | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ellis Gillam | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | AJ Wallace | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 12 in 9g | 12/9g (1·1·1·2·2·3·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 89% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 17 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1361 · Wakefield Trinity 1599 · ELO difference: 238 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)