# Leigh Leopards v Hull FC — Super League Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 42 – 6 Hull FC

_Leigh Leopards run riot over Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 78% / Hull FC 22% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sat, 23 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (17' 1st), Josh Charnley (32' 1st), AJ Towse (38'), Umyla Hanley (44'), Frankie Halton (50'), Josh Charnley (56' 1st), David Armstrong (62'), Bailey Hodgson (69'), Lachlan Lam (79') · Hull FC: Zak Hardaker (23')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 78% | Won |
| Hull FC | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.4 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 42–6 Hull FC in Super League Round 12 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards overran Hull FC 42–6 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Leading 12–6 at half-time, Leigh Leopards pulled clear late.

Josh Charnley opened the scoring; Leigh Leopards crossed through Josh Charnley (3), AJ Towse, Umyla Hanley, Frankie Halton, David Armstrong, Bailey Hodgson and Lachlan Lam; Hull FC scored through Zak Hardaker.

Leigh Leopards were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 8 times to 11. Leigh Leopards were sharper in attack, breaking the line 11 times to 1 and busting 38 tackles. Leigh Leopards held the discipline edge, conceding 2 penalties to 5.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,530** | Run metres | 923 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **38** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| **11** | Offloads | 7 |
| **8** | Errors | 11 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/9 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 36 points. Leigh Leopards led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · Hull FC 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 78.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 78.5% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 78.5% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 78% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 93 ELO points clear, 1525 to 1432. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 8.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 1248.6m | Run Metres | 1174.0m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 319.0 | Tackles | 296.2 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L | 20.6 |
| Hull FC | R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Hull FC | 22 – 32 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Hull FC | 18 – 12 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 12 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Hull FC | 22 – 22 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 4 – 54 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.09 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 9th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Charnley, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the middle: Super League's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.09 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 11th there (2.18 conceded/game). Key man: Arthur, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.55/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.18/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.36/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.18/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.09/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.64/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 92m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 89.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 18 | 19 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 482m/g | 505m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.9/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 84.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 6 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 371m/g | 325m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 35% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 2 | Alwyn Towse | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Innes Senior | CE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 10 in 11g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·1·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 17' 32' 56' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Hughes | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 29% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bailey Hodgson | INT | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 15 | Ryan Brown | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Lloyd Kemp | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Benjamin Johnson | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Callum Kemp | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jeremiah Matautia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Cade Cust | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Zak Hardaker | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 14 | Will Hutchinson | INT | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Lennon Clark | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | William Kirby | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Salabio | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1525 · Hull FC 1432 · ELO difference: 93 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)