Skip to main content

Super League | Round 12

alphr.com.au

Thu 21 May10:00am
HKRHKR
WIGWIG
Fri 22 May10:00am
LEILEI
HULHUL
Fri 22 May10:00am
LEELEE
HUDHUD
Sat 23 May10:00am
CASCAS
STHSTH
Sat 23 May10:00am
TOTO
WAKWAK
Sat 23 May10:00am
YRKYRK
CATCAT
Sun 24 May10:00am
WARWAR
BRDBRD
LEI
Leigh Leopards
VS
HUL
Hull FC
LEIGH SPORTS VILLAGE STADIUM • FRIDAY 22 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
42
6

Scoring Breakdown

LeopardsFC
9Tries1
3/9Conversions1/1
2Penalties Conceded5
8Errors11
11Line Breaks1
38Tackle Busts14
11Offloads7
1535Metres930

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

Leopards had a slight +3 penalty edge, but the overall balance was acceptable. No significant concerns.

PENS2 – 5
ERR8 – 11

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 36 points. Leigh Leopards led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Leigh Leopards firmly in control (99%)
LEI42
99%80'1%
6HUL
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Hull FC momentumMomentum +98Leigh Leopards momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

78%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

78%

Hull FC

22%

✨

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1525 vs 1432). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull FC. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 8.4 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +8.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R7L
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L

older → newer

20.6
Hull FC
R7L
R8L
R9W
R10L
R11L
17.6

Avg Conceded

20.4

Leigh Leopards

17.2

Hull FC

Avg Margin

0.2

Leigh Leopards

0.4

Hull FC

Run Metres

1241

Leigh Leopards

1167

Hull FC

Clean Breaks

5.6

Leigh Leopards

3.2

Hull FC

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1525Overall1432
HUL
ELO difference: +93 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

917Forwards847
Best: 1273LEI +70Best: 1147
821Backs717
Best: 969LEI +104Best: 795
854Halves623
Best: 854LEI +232Best: 623
1072Hooker902
LEI +170

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
HUL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
20.6pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
20.4pts
Avg Conceded
17.2pts
0.2pts
Avg Margin
0.4pts
1241.2m
Run Metres
1166.8m
5.6
Clean Breaks
3.2
319.0
Tackles
296.2
10.6
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

78%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.4

3/4 match predictions correct