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Super League | Round 12

alphr.com.au

LEIGH SPORTS VILLAGE STADIUM • FRIDAY 22 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEI

Leigh Leopards

426
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

78%

Hull

22%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1525 vs 1432). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 8.4 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +8.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R7L
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L

older → newer

20.6
Hull
R7L
R8L
R9W
R10L
R11L
17.6

Avg Conceded

20.4

Leigh Leopards

17.2

Hull

Avg Margin

0.2

Leigh Leopards

0.4

Hull

Run Metres

1241

Leigh Leopards

1167

Hull

Clean Breaks

5.6

Leigh Leopards

3.2

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Tied 2-2
Aug 2025LEI 12 - 18 HUL
May 2025LEI 12 - 26 HUL
Mar 2025LEI 22 - 22 HUL
Feb 2024LEI 54 - 4 HUL
Aug 2024LEI 42 - 12 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1525Overall1432
HUL
ELO difference: +93 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

917Forwards847
Best: 1273LEI +70Best: 1147
821Backs717
Best: 969LEI +104Best: 795
854Halves623
Best: 854LEI +232Best: 623
1072Hooker902
LEI +170

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
HUL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
20.6pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
20.4pts
Avg Conceded
17.2pts
0.2pts
Avg Margin
0.4pts
1241.2m
Run Metres
1166.8m
5.6
Clean Breaks
3.2
319.0
Tackles
296.2
10.6
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

78%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.4

3/4 match predictions correct