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Super League | Round 12

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 22 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

520
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 83%

AI Win Probability

83%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

83%

Huddersfield Giants

17%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 356-point ELO rating advantage (1680 vs 1324). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 17.6 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.21

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +17.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L

older → newer

34.0
Huddersfield Giants
R7W
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11L
18.8

Avg Conceded

16.8

Leeds Rhinos

32.0

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

17.2

Leeds Rhinos

-13.2

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

1454

Leeds Rhinos

1202

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

6.2

Leeds Rhinos

4.8

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
Apr 2026LEE 56 - 22 HUD
Sep 2025LEE 26 - 0 HUD
Apr 2025LEE 28 - 6 HUD
Feb 2024LEE 24 - 30 HUD
Jul 2024LEE 34 - 6 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1680Overall1324
HUD
ELO difference: +356 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

848Forwards782
Best: 1095LEE +67Best: 1032
889Backs821
Best: 1067LEE +68Best: 968
854Halves1000
Best: 854HUD +146Best: 1000
600Hooker665
HUD +65

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
HUD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
34.0pts
Avg Score
18.8pts
16.8pts
Avg Conceded
32.0pts
17.2pts
Avg Margin
-13.2pts
1454.0m
Run Metres
1202.2m
6.2
Clean Breaks
4.8
276.2
Tackles
317.6
9.2
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

83%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 18 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +17.6

3/4 match predictions correct