# Hull KR v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 62 – 4 Wigan Warriors

_Hull KR put Wigan Warriors to the sword._

Half time: 42 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 68% / Wigan Warriors 32% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 22 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (2' 1st), Mikey Lewis (4' 1st), Tom Davies (10'), Mikey Lewis (17' 1st), Jez Litten (28'), Jai Whitbread (35'), Rhyse Martin (39'), Dean Hadley (53'), Noah Booth (57'), Jack Broadbent (62'), Sam Luckley (76') · Wigan Warriors: Nathan Lowe (42')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 68% | Won |
| Wigan Warriors | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.3 predicted → 58 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull KR 62–4 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 12 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR beat Wigan Warriors 62-4 at Sewell Group Craven Park, and even that scoreline undersells how one-sided it was. Wigan didn't get their first points until the 42nd minute. By then Hull KR had already put on seven tries and led 42-0. The result was decided inside the first half, the second half just added the padding.

Mikey Lewis set the tone early and kept adding to it. He crossed in the 2nd minute, again in the 4th, and had his hat trick done by the 17th. Tom Davies and Jez Litten got in on it too, and Rhyse Martin capped the first-half romp with a try of his own in the 39th, on top of six conversions from the tee. Six tries in the opening 40 minutes from a side that simply would not stop finding space.

Wigan's answer came through Nathan Lowe right on the stroke of half-time, 42-4, and that was as close as the margin ever got. Hull KR came back out and piled on five more, through Dean Hadley, Noah Booth, Jack Broadbent and Sam Luckley, with Martin adding the extras. Wigan never scored again after Lowe's try.

The stat sheet explains why there was no way back. Hull KR ran for 1,827 metres to Wigan's 760, more than double, and that gap shows up everywhere else too: 11 line breaks to 2, 50 tackle busts to 24, seven offloads to Wigan's one. This wasn't a case of Wigan matching them physically and losing the arm wrestle. Wigan simply couldn't get their hands on the ball in space.

Discipline wasn't even the separator, for what it's worth. Hull KR actually conceded fewer errors, 4 to 6, but gave away more penalties, 5 to 6. Wigan lost this on execution and system, not on ill-discipline.

The positional numbers going in point at where it came apart. Wigan rated higher in the backs, 920 to 839, and in the halves, 800 to 677, on paper the more dangerous side with ball in hand. None of that showed up on the field. Hull KR's hooker rating, 838 to Wigan's 600, told the real story, with Litten and that kind of go-forward setting up everything Lewis did.

Form lines back it up too. Hull KR arrived on five straight wins averaging 37.6 points scored and just 8 conceded. Wigan had gone 2-3 in their last five, conceding almost 20 a game. Those numbers played out almost exactly to script, just amplified.

Alphr's model backed Hull KR at 68% and got the winner right. The margin model did not see this coming, tipping Hull KR by 11.3 in a game projected at 41 total points. The actual margin was 58, the actual total was 66. Picking the right side is one thing. Picking a stoppage-time procession like this is another matter entirely.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,827** | Run metres | 760 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **50** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| **7** | Offloads | 1 |
| **4** | Errors | 6 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 1 |
| 9/11 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 4 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.3 but the actual margin was 58 points. The game's 66 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 41. Hull KR led 42–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 58. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Hull KR 5 · Wigan Warriors 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 68.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 11 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 68% to see off Wigan Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 70 ELO points clear, 1702 to 1632. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Wigan Warriors.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Hull KR by 11.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 37.6pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 1427.2m | Run Metres | 1174.8m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 308.6 | Tackles | 328.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 37.6 |
| Wigan Warriors | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Wigan Warriors | 46 – 0 | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | GF | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R22 | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 10 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Hull KR | 12 – 28 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 9 – 2 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.73 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 7th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.64/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 7th) | 1.73/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 2 | 9 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 211m/g | 93m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 78.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 14 | 36 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 628m/g | 536m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.4/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 80.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 9 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 302m/g | 427m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 7.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.2/g (lg 0.27) -26% · Wingers 0.59/g (lg 0.97) -39%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.27) -7% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.48) -29% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 11/24g | 26% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 1/10g | 11/20g | 38% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 12/29g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/15g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 0 in 9g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 6 | Ryan Hampshire | 5/8 | no games | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·0·2·0·3·0·0·4·1·0) | 3/12g | 31/49g | 48% | — | 🏉 2' 4' 17' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/34g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/17g | 2/46g | 12% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 5/31g | 20% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 3/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 4/52g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 10/54g | 26% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 15 | Tom Amone | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 2/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Taealoaloa Amone | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/41g | 2% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Cartwright | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nathan Lowe | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 3 | Finlay Yeomans | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | George Oloughlin | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Austin Daniel | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Charlie Yeomans | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | George Marsden | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Samuel Eseh | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Kian Mcdermott | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Lewis Daniels | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Lukas Mason | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Taylor Kerr | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Mago | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Finn Mcmillan | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Shea connor | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kalum Rathbone | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Forber | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1702 · Wigan Warriors 1632 · ELO difference: 70 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)