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Super League | Round 12

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SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • THURSDAY 21 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

624
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

68%

Wigan Warriors

32%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wigan Warriors. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 70-point ELO rating advantage (1702 vs 1632). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wigan Warriors. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 11.3 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.46

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +11.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11W

older → newer

37.6
Wigan Warriors
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10W
R11W
21.2

Avg Conceded

8.0

Hull KR

19.8

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

29.6

Hull KR

1.4

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1420

Hull KR

1168

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

6.0

Hull KR

4.2

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Oct 2025HKR 24 - 6 WIG
Aug 2025HKR 10 - 6 WIG
Apr 2025HKR 12 - 28 WIG
Feb 2024HKR 2 - 9 WIG
Feb 2024HKR 26 - 10 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1702Overall1632
WIG
ELO difference: +70 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

792Forwards781
Best: 1021HKR +11Best: 1000
839Backs920
Best: 999WIG +81Best: 1000
677Halves800
Best: 677WIG +123Best: 800
838Hooker600
HKR +238

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
WIG
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
37.6pts
Avg Score
21.2pts
8.0pts
Avg Conceded
19.8pts
29.6pts
Avg Margin
1.4pts
1419.8m
Run Metres
1168.2m
6.0
Clean Breaks
4.2
308.6
Tackles
328.4
10.6
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

68%

Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +11.3

3/4 match predictions correct