Castleford Tigers
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
33%
St Helens
67%
AI Match Overview
St Helens are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 311-point ELO rating advantage (1662 vs 1351). Recent form favours St Helens with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts St Helens by 9.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.49
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
St Helens -9.6 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R7L R8W R9L R10L R11W older → newer | 12.8 |
St Helens | R7W R8W R9W R10W R11W | 28.4 |
Avg Conceded
33.2
Castleford Tigers
16.8
St Helens
Avg Margin
-20.4
Castleford Tigers
11.6
St Helens
Run Metres
1027
Castleford Tigers
1376
St Helens
Clean Breaks
2.8
Castleford Tigers
5.0
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
St Helens predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -9.6