# Castleford Tigers v St Helens — Super League Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 30 – 10 St Helens

_Castleford Tigers hunt down St Helens._

Half time: 10 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 33% / St Helens 67% · The OneBore Stadium · Sun, 24 May, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Jason Qareqare (4' 1st), Jason Qareqare (37' 1st), Brock Greacen (44'), Jason Qareqare (53' 1st), Ashton Golding (72') · St Helens: Lewis Murphy (50'), Owen Dagnall (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 67% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.6 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 30–10 St Helens in Super League Round 12 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten-nil at the break, and nothing in the shape of the second half suggested St Helens had an answer coming. Jason Qareqare crossed inside four minutes, Tom Weaver added a penalty goal on 35, and Castleford took a 10-0 lead into the sheds. St Helens had troubled nobody. The second half didn't rewrite that story, it just kept adding chapters to it.

Qareqare struck again right on the stroke of half-time, in first-half stoppage on 37 minutes, and by the 44th Brock Greacen had crossed too. Weaver's conversion made it 16-0 before St Helens had so much as dented the scoreboard. Lewis Murphy finally got them on the board in the 50th minute, but Qareqare completed his hat-trick three minutes later to push it out to 20-4. From there Castleford cruised: two more Weaver penalty goals, an Ashton Golding try on 72, and Owen Dagnall's consolation try with a minute left barely changed the picture. Final score 30-10. The 20-point margin looks even bigger given how tight it read at half-time.

The stat sheet explains why St Helens never got a foothold. Castleford ran for 1,541 metres to St Helens' 990, more than 550 metres of separation, and turned that go-forward into 7 line breaks to 3 and 41 tackle busts to 28. St Helens were their own worst enemy as well, coughing the ball up 13 times to Castleford's 8 and conceding 12 penalties to just 4. That kind of discipline gap hands the other side field position and repeat sets, and Castleford cashed it in, three Weaver penalty goals on top of the four tries.

It's a result that sits well outside what the positional numbers suggested going in. St Helens carried the stronger forward pack, 925 to 867, and a big edge in the halves, 1086 to 793, the sort of gap that's meant to control field position and shape. None of it showed up where it counted on the night. Castleford's hooker rating, 973 to St Helens' 733, and their edge in the backs, 907 to 820, look a lot more like the real story once you line them up against the run-metre and line-break counts.

The form lines make the upset look starker again. St Helens arrived on a five-game winning streak, averaging 28.4 points scored and conceding just 16.8, for an average margin of plus 11.6. Castleford had won two of their past five and were shipping 33.2 points a game on average over that stretch. Everything in the formbook pointed one way. The match went the other.

Alphr's model had St Helens winning this by 9.6 points off ratings of 1662 to 1351, putting the visitors around a two-in-three shot.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,541** | Run metres | 990 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 28 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| **8** | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 12 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/8 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 12 |
| 8 | Errors | 13 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 67% prediction for St Helens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.6 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Castleford Tigers led 10–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (43/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · St Helens 12.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 67.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 10 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 67% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 311 ELO points clear, 1662 to 1351. Form leans St Helens' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 9.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 12.8pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 33.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -20.4pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 1034.0m | Run Metres | 1382.4m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 331.6 | Tackles | 329.2 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 12.8 |
| St Helens | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | St Helens | 26 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 60 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.64 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2.18 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.73/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.82/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.09/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.09/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.64/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.45/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.18/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 8 | 7 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 75m/g | 219m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 90.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 32 | 22 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 362m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 16.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 13 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 248m/g | 315m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.7% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Wingers 0.81/g (lg 0.97) -16% · Centres 0.4/g (lg 0.48) -17%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Wingers 1.49/g (lg 0.97) +54%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Stimson | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | George Lawler | LK | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/15g | 3/7g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Brock Greacen | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/19g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/12g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/25g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | George Delaney | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Noah Stephens | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jonny Lomax | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Walmsley | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/19g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Shane Wright | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1351 · St Helens 1662 · ELO difference: 311 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — St Helens predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r12-castleford-tigers-v-st-helens
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)