# York Knights v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 18 – 24 Castleford Tigers

_Castleford Tigers roar back to maul York Knights._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 70% / Castleford Tigers 30% · LNER Community Stadium · Sun, 17 May, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: King Vuniyayawa (8'), Sam Wood (26'), Scott Galeano (34') · Castleford Tigers: George Hirst (5' 1st), Jason Qareqare (19'), Renouf Atoni (48'), Brock Greacen (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 70% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 18–24 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 11 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights led 18-12 at the break and were the better side for most of the first half's chaos. By full time it was Castleford Tigers 24, York Knights 18. Whatever went right for York before half-time didn't survive the second.

The opening exchanges were end to end. George Hirst crossed inside five minutes to put Castleford in front, but York hit back through King Vuniyayawa, and then a Tom Weaver penalty goal and a Jason Qareqare try had the Tigers up 6-12 by the 19th minute. York Knights responded with tries to Sam Wood and Scott Galeano either side of the half-hour mark, turning a six-point deficit into an 18-12 lead they took into the sheds. On that scoreboard alone, it looked like York's afternoon.

It wasn't. Castleford Tigers scored 12 unanswered points after the break: Renouf Atoni in the 48th minute, Brock Greacen in the 58th, Weaver's conversion, then a penalty goal in the 62nd to put it out of reach. York didn't manage another point after half-time. A six-point cushion at the break turned into a six-point loss by full time, which is about as complete a reversal as you'll see without the ladder changing hands more than once.

The stat sheet explains where that swing came from. Castleford ran for 1,378 metres to York's 1,204, busted 44 tackles to York's 26, and cut five line breaks to York's three. That's not a marginal edge, it's a side that kept finding room after the break while York's defensive line held less and less. York actually offloaded more, 14 to 6, and shaded the error count in their favour, 10 to 9, but neither of those numbers means much when the opposition is running through you at will in the second half.

Discipline told too. York conceded eight penalties to Castleford's three, and against a side building field position off broken tackles, that's a lot of extra ball and territory to hand over for free. Pre-match, the ratings had Castleford rated lower across most of the park: forwards 733 to York's 845, backs 816 to 918.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1,204 | Run metres | **1,378** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **44** |
| **14** | Offloads | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 70% prediction for York Knights, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.2 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. Castleford Tigers trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–24. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (51/100) — penalties York Knights 8 · Castleford Tigers 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 5 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on York Knights here: 70% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: York Knights sit 74 ELO points clear, 1394 to 1321. Form leans Castleford Tigers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for York Knights.

York Knights own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has York Knights by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 40. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back York Knights to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -19.2pts |
| 1381.0m | Run Metres | 1025.2m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 331.0 | Tackles | 315.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 17.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Castleford Tigers | 14 – 20 | York Knights | Castleford Tigers 56% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2.2 conceded/game). Key man: Galeano, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 12th there (2.4 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.7/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.4/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.2/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) | 0.5/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 2 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 117m/g | 70m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 91.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 27 | 12 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 448m/g | 369m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 3 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 302m/g | 254m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 94.6% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.05) +180% · Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.25) +56% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.25) +100% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.05) +100% · Wingers 1.8/g (lg 0.98) +84%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (1·1·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 50% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/5g | 24% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Kieran Buchanan | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Will Roberts | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/7g | 3/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | King Vuniyayawa | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 1 | Phoenix Togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Stimson | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | George Hirst | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Lane | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 15 | George Lawler | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Brock Greacen | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 17 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1394 · Castleford Tigers 1321 · ELO difference: 74 in favour of York Knights

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | York Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — York Knights predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)