# York Knights v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### York Knights v Castleford Tigers
Sun, 17 May, 12:00 am AEST · LNER Community Stadium · Round 11

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 5 · Predicted total: 40

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -19.2pts |
| 1381.0m | Run Metres | 1025.2m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 331.0 | Tackles | 315.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 17.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 16.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)