York Knights
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
York Knights
70%
Castleford Tigers
30%
AI Match Overview
York Knights are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees York Knights ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. York Knights carry a 74-point ELO rating advantage (1394 vs 1321). Recent form favours Castleford Tigers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for York Knights. The margin model predicts York Knights by 5.2 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
York Knights to Win @1.44
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
York Knights +5.2 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
York Knights 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
York Knights | R6L R7L R8L R9W R10L older → newer | 17.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R6W R7L R8W R9L R10L | 16.0 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
York Knights
35.2
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-8.8
York Knights
-19.2
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1373
York Knights
1018
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
4.2
York Knights
3.4
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
York Knights predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +5.2