# Wigan Warriors v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 24 – 4 Leeds Rhinos

_Wigan Warriors march past Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 60% / Leeds Rhinos 40% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sat, 16 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Jack Farrimond (5' 1st), Adam Keighran (20'), Noah Hodkinson (28'), Jake Wardle (51') · Leeds Rhinos: Maika Sivo (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 60% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 24–4 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 11 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen-nil at the break tells most of the story here. Wigan Warriors were four tries to the good inside 28 minutes, Jack Farrimond opening it up in the 5th, Adam Keighran doubling up with a try and two conversions either side of the 20th minute, then Noah Hodkinson finishing off a spell that left Leeds Rhinos with nothing on the board and not much to say for themselves.

The second half didn't rewrite anything, it just confirmed it. Keighran stretched it to 18-0 with a penalty goal just after the resumption, Jake Wardle crossed in the 51st and Keighran's conversion made it 24-0 by the 53rd minute. Leeds Rhinos got a late name on the sheet through Maika Sivo in the 65th, but by then it was a scoreboard tidy-up, not a contest.

What makes the final numbers interesting is that Leeds Rhinos actually won a fair chunk of the underlying battle. They ran for 1,405 metres to Wigan's 1,040, busted 46 tackles to Wigan's 25, and offloaded eleven times to Wigan's five. On paper that's the side doing the damage with ball in hand. It just didn't show up where it counts, because Leeds also coughed up 12 errors to Wigan's 6, and every one of those handling mistakes handed field position straight back.

That's really the whole match in one line. Wigan Warriors didn't need to out-carry anyone, they just needed the ball more often at the right end of the field, and Leeds kept giving it to them. The penalty count was close, 4 to 5 in Wigan's favour, so this wasn't decided by refereeing generosity either. It was decided by hands.

The positional read backs it up too. Wigan held clear edges in the backs (1083 to 993) and an enormous one at hooker (1192 to 978), and it was exactly that spine, quick front-foot ball through the middle, that turned into four tries before Leeds got a look in. Leeds had the stronger halves rating, 1180 to 1054, and arguably that showed in the metres and offloads, but shape without composure is just running around.

Form lines make this one a genuine upset on paper. Leeds Rhinos arrived on five straight wins, averaging 38.4 points a game. Wigan had won one of their last five and were leaking nearly 26 points a match. None of that survived first contact at The Brick Community Stadium.

Alphr's model backed Wigan Warriors at 60 per cent, so the head was right. The margin model wasn't, tipping this as a 0.9-point game with a combined total of 42, when it finished a 20-point Wigan win off a 24-4 scoreline. One from two on this one. The winner picked itself; how comfortably it happened is another matter entirely.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,040 | Run metres | **1,405** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 25 | Tackle busts | **46** |
| 5 | Offloads | **11** |
| **6** | Errors | 12 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 6 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (14/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 4 · Leeds Rhinos 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 59.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 60%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Leeds Rhinos sit 148 ELO points clear, 1730 to 1582, so the model is backing Wigan Warriors against the ratings gap. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Wigan Warriors.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 38.4pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | 22.0pts |
| 1161.2m | Run Metres | 1429.0m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 7.0 |
| 331.8 | Tackles | 275.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W | 19.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 38.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 6 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Leeds Rhinos | 30 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 5th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (0.9 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.9/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.6/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.7/g (def 8th) | 2.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.8/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 16 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 95m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 92% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 18 | 27 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 552m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.1% | 85.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 10 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 427m/g | 342m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.18) -17%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.27) -22% · Wingers 0.59/g (lg 0.98) -40%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·2) | 4/8g | 43/51g | 56% | — | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (2·1·1·2·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 16/29g | 62% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 9/29g | 30% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 21/44g | 36% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Noah Hodkinson | WG | 4 in 6g | 4/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 29% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 37% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 14/67g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 6/50g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/39g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Walters | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/26g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Kaide Ellis | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/54g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 17 in 9g | 17/9g (2·4·3·0·3·0·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 78% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 6/20g | 1/3g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 13 in 9g | 13/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·4·1·2) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 50% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Holroyd | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/21g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Mikolaj Oledzki | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1730 vs 1582), but the market favours Wigan Warriors (@1.67). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1582 · Leeds Rhinos 1730 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)