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Super League | Round 11

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 15 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

244
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 60%

AI Win Probability

60%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

60%

Leeds Rhinos

40%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Leeds Rhinos carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1730 vs 1582). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wigan Warriors.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.67

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -0.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10W

older → newer

19.6
Leeds Rhinos
R6W
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
38.4

Avg Conceded

25.8

Wigan Warriors

16.4

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-6.2

Wigan Warriors

22.0

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1154

Wigan Warriors

1422

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

4.6

Wigan Warriors

7.0

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Sep 2025WIG 22 - 6 LEE
Apr 2025WIG 10 - 12 LEE
Sep 2024WIG 38 - 0 LEE
Aug 2024WIG 4 - 30 LEE
Sep 2023WIG 50 - 0 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1730 vs 1582), but the market favours Wigan Warriors (@1.67).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1582Overall1730
LEE
ELO difference: -148 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

875Forwards838
Best: 1077WIG +38Best: 1100
1083Backs993
Best: 1237WIG +90Best: 1210
1054Halves1180
Best: 1054LEE +125Best: 1180
1192Hooker978
WIG +214

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
LEE
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
19.6pts
Avg Score
38.4pts
25.8pts
Avg Conceded
16.4pts
-6.2pts
Avg Margin
22.0pts
1154.2m
Run Metres
1422.4m
4.6
Clean Breaks
7.0
331.8
Tackles
275.4
11.6
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

60%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -0.9

1/4 match predictions correct