# Wakefield Trinity v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 58 – 10 Catalans Dragons

_Wakefield Trinity put Catalans Dragons to the sword._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 82% / Catalans Dragons 18% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 16 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Caleb Uele (25'), Will Tate (38'), Caius Faatili (43'), Jay Pitts (46'), Jayden Myers (51'), Caius Faatili (55'), Caius Faatili (59'), Jazz Tevaga (63'), Oliver Pratt (70'), Jake Trueman (76'), Will Tate (78') · Catalans Dragons: Charlie Staines (7' 1st), Toby Sexton (10')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 82% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 58–10 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 11 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten-all at the break told you nothing about what was coming. Wakefield Trinity had just clawed level through Caleb Uele and Will Tate either side of half-time, after Catalans Dragons raced out through Charlie Staines and Toby Sexton inside the first ten minutes. Then the home side scored 48 unanswered points and turned a contest into a rout.

Final score: Wakefield Trinity 58, Catalans Dragons 10. Caius Faatili crossed three times in the second half alone, either side of tries to Jay Pitts, Jayden Myers, Jazz Tevaga, Oliver Pratt and Jake Trueman, with Will Tate grabbing a second in the 78th to put a full stop on it. Mason Lino was perfect off the tee, seven from seven, which tells you plenty about how one-sided the ball was flying.

The shift wasn't a fluke of the scoreboard, it was written all over the stat sheet. Wakefield ran for 1,456 metres to Catalans' 779, nearly double, and broke the line 11 times against just 3. Fifty-eight tackle busts to 23 is the number that actually explains it: Catalans simply couldn't hold anyone up once Wakefield got go-forward.

Ball control mattered too. Wakefield coughed it up only 6 times, Catalans 12, and while the penalty count was close at 5 to 6, it was the handling errors that let Wakefield's go, back to the ball again and again in good ship. Eleven offloads to 5 says the same thing from a different angle: Wakefield kept it alive, Catalans kept giving it back.

Catalans came in with the stronger backline rating on paper, 865 to 811, but it counted for little when the forward battle went the other way, 815 to 740 in Wakefield's favour, and the middle just kept bleeding metres. Their form line into this one was already shaky, two wins from five, conceding an average of 30.2 points a game, and this was that trend showing up at the worst possible time. Staines and Sexton got them competitive early, but there was nothing left to back it up.

Wakefield's form pointed the other way, three wins from five and an average margin of plus-12.4, and they more than lived up to it. A run-metre average of 1,352 coming in became 1,456 on the night, and the clean-break number followed the same pattern.

Alphr's model backed Wakefield at 82 percent and got the winner right without much fuss. The margin was where it came unstuck, tipping Wakefield by 9.7 in a game that finished 48 points clear. The total was miles out too, 40 points forecast against 68 delivered. One from two on this one: the right side of the ledger, wrong side of the maths. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,456** | Run metres | 779 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **58** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| **11** | Offloads | 5 |
| **6** | Errors | 12 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 2 |
| 7/11 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 6 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 48 points. The game's 68 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 40. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 5 · Catalans Dragons 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 81.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 10 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 82% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 106 ELO points clear, 1560 to 1453. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Catalans Dragons.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 40. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 30.2pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 1352.0m | Run Metres | 1112.2m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 337.6 | Tackles | 331.0 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 29.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 44 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Catalans Dragons | 24 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R25 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2023 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 36 – 6 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 4th there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Darrelatour, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.6/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.1/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.1/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.7/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 7 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 108m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 89.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 20 | 21 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 480m/g | 502m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 82.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 325m/g | 233m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · 2nd Rows 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Fullbacks 0.37/g (lg 0.25) +48% · Centres 0.63/g (lg 0.48) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Will Tate | WG | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·0·3·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 38' 78' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | 11 in 8g | 11/8g (1·1·1·2·2·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/3g | 88% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 38% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/11g | 12% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 19% | — | — |
| 12 | Cameron Scott | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/13g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/17g | 2% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 14 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 25' |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/16g | 16% | — | 🏉 43' 55' 59' |
| 17 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (0·3·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·2) | 7/10g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Benjamin Condon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1560 · Catalans Dragons 1453 · ELO difference: 106 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)