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Super League | Round 11

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THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • FRIDAY 15 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

5810
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 82%

AI Win Probability

82%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

82%

Catalans Dragons

18%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wakefield Trinity carry a 106-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1453). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 9.7 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +9.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R6W
R7W
R8W
R9L
R10L

older → newer

29.2
Catalans Dragons
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9L
R10L
22.6

Avg Conceded

16.8

Wakefield Trinity

30.2

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

12.4

Wakefield Trinity

-7.6

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1345

Wakefield Trinity

1106

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

7.2

Wakefield Trinity

4.6

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 4-1
Jul 2025WAK 44 - 6 CAT
May 2025WAK 20 - 24 CAT
Sep 2023WAK 10 - 18 CAT
Jun 2023WAK 6 - 36 CAT
Mar 2023WAK 24 - 38 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1560Overall1453
CAT
ELO difference: +106 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

815Forwards740
Best: 969WAK +75Best: 917
811Backs865
Best: 950CAT +54Best: 1042
687Halves681
Best: 687EvenBest: 681
945Hooker928
WAK +17

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
CAT
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
29.2pts
Avg Score
22.6pts
16.8pts
Avg Conceded
30.2pts
12.4pts
Avg Margin
-7.6pts
1345.4m
Run Metres
1106.0m
7.2
Clean Breaks
4.6
337.6
Tackles
331.0
13.0
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

82%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +9.7

2/4 match predictions correct