# Toulouse Olympique v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 16 – 24 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves hunt down Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 52% / Warrington Wolves 48% · Stade Michel Bendichou · Sun, 17 May, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Mathieu Jussaume (54'), Olly Ashall-Bott (58'), Olly Ashall-Bott (65') · Warrington Wolves: Toby King (6' 1st), Josh Smith (26'), Max Wood (33'), Toby King (50' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 52% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 16–24 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 11 at Stade Michel Bendichou. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Warrington Wolves as the stronger side on ratings, 1581 to Toulouse Olympique's 1374, yet it still gave Toulouse Olympique the better chance of winning outright, 52%. The margin pick leaned the other way, Warrington Wolves by 4.5. Warrington Wolves won 24-16, a margin of 8, so the win/loss call missed and the margin call was in the right family without being close enough to call sharp. Both picks missed. That's the sort of split a model can wear once and forget.

The board explains why the win/loss pick was so wrong. Toby King crossed inside six minutes, Marc Sneyd slotted a penalty goal in the 11th, and Warrington Wolves just kept adding. Josh Smith went over in the 26th, Sneyd converted, Max Wood scored in the 33rd, Sneyd converted again. By half-time it was 0-18 to Warrington Wolves. Toulouse Olympique had nothing on the board and nothing going right.

That first-half form tracks with the pre-match numbers. Warrington Wolves came in with the stronger halves pairing by a wide margin, 1070 to 722, and the better backs, 1053 to 855. Those are the positions that turn ball in hand into points on the scoreboard, and for 35 minutes Warrington Wolves did exactly that. Toulouse Olympique's one clear positional edge was hooker, 1229 to 600, but a strong number nine wasn't going to matter if the ball never got that far forward in good ball.

King's second try, in the 50th minute, pushed it to 0-24 and made it look like a rout. Then the match tilted. Mathieu Jussaume scored in the 54th, Olly Ashall-Bott added two more in the 58th and 65th minutes, and Cesar Rouge converted both of Ashall-Bott's tries. In eleven minutes Toulouse Olympique turned 0-24 into 16-24. It was too late to matter, but it wasn't nothing.

The final team stats back up how that comeback happened without it ever getting home. Toulouse Olympique actually ran for more metres, 1,260 to 1,113, and offloaded more, 12 to 7, generating go-forward once they started playing with some ambition. But they also coughed the ball up 12 times to Warrington Wolves' 9, and Warrington Wolves made more line breaks, 5 to 3, and more tackle busts, 43 to 40. Warrington Wolves conceded the same number of penalties as they gave away, 5 apiece, so that wasn't a factor either way.

Form coming in pointed the same direction as the final result, even if the margin surprised. Warrington Wolves arrived on the back of three wins from their last five, averaging 28.6 points a game against 16 conceded. Toulouse Olympique had won just once in five, averaging 14.4 points scored and 28.4 conceded. On that reading, an 8-point Warrington Wolves win with a nervy finish is closer to the two teams' recent trend than the model's pre-match price suggested.

So the model got the shape of the contest wrong and the size of it only roughly right. Warrington Wolves were the better side for 50 minutes, Toulouse Olympique were the better side for the last quarter, and the ledger settled at 24-16. Alphr's picks went 0 for 2, and the honest account of it is that the model backed the wrong team to win and undersold how big the winning margin would get before Toulouse Olympique's late rally made it respectable again.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,260** | Run metres | 1,113 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **43** | Tackle busts | 40 |
| **12** | Offloads | 7 |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 12 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 52% prediction for Toulouse Olympique, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 4.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 5 · Warrington Wolves 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 51.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 5 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Toulouse Olympique and Warrington Wolves. The model can't split them, landing on Toulouse Olympique at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Warrington Wolves sit 207 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1374, so the model is backing Toulouse Olympique against the ratings gap. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Toulouse Olympique.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Toulouse Olympique, which says Forward Pack carry the most weight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 47. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 28.6pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -14.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.6pts |
| 1182.2m | Run Metres | 1313.4m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 6.6 |
| 368.6 | Tackles | 309.6 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W | 14.4 |
| Warrington Wolves | R6 L · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W | 28.6 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Warrington Wolves | 26 – 14 | Toulouse Olympique | Warrington Wolves 55% ✓ |
| 2022 | R23 | Warrington Wolves | 32 – 18 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R3 | Toulouse Olympique | 18 – 32 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 13th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.7 conceded/game). Key man: Tanginoa, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.7/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th) | 3.44/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.22/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 138m/g | 191m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 30 | 20 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 536m/g | 424m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.5/g | 12.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 84.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 287m/g | 287m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 94.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.18) +56% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.91/g (lg 0.98) -7%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.2/g (lg 0.06) +233% · Props 0.3/g (lg 0.14) +114% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.98) +104%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Michel Bendichou. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 58' 65' |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 3 | Mathieu Jussaume | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Anthony Marion | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | James Roumanos | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Baptiste Rodriguez | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ellis Gillam | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | AJ Wallace | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | — | — |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 6' 50' |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Samuel Powell | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Crowther | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Walker | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·4·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1581 vs 1374), but the market favours Toulouse Olympique (@1.94). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1374 · Warrington Wolves 1581 · ELO difference: 207 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)