Super League | Round 11

alphr.com.au

Sat 16 May10:00am

TOTO

WARWAR

WAR

STADE MICHEL BENDICHOU • SATURDAY 16 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST

Full Time

Toulouse Olympique

16–24

WAR

Warrington Wolves

❌ Upset — model favoured Toulouse Olympique at 52%

AI Win Probability

52%Toulouse OlympiqueFavourite

Toulouse Olympique

52%

Warrington Wolves

48%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Toulouse Olympique a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Toulouse Olympique counter with Forward Pack which tips the scales. Warrington Wolves carry a 207-point ELO rating advantage (1581 vs 1374). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 4.5 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Toulouse Olympique to Win @1.94

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves -4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Toulouse Olympique	R6L R7L R8L R9L R10W older → newer	14.4
Warrington Wolves	R6L R7W R8L R9W R10W	28.6

Avg Conceded

28.4

Toulouse Olympique

16.0

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-14.0

Toulouse Olympique

12.6

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1175

Toulouse Olympique

1306

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

3.8

Toulouse Olympique

6.6

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 2)Warrington Wolves lead 2-0

Aug 2022TO 18 - 32 WAR

Mar 2022TO 18 - 32 WAR

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1581 vs 1374), but the market favours Toulouse Olympique (@1.94).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

1374Overall1581

WAR

ELO difference: -207 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

874Forwards808

Best: 1212TO +66Best: 1063

855Backs1053

Best: 973WAR +198Best: 1199

722Halves1070

Best: 722WAR +348Best: 1070

1229Hooker600

TO +629

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

Stat

WAR

1.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

14.4pts

Avg Score

28.6pts

28.4pts

Avg Conceded

16.0pts

-14.0pts

Avg Margin

12.6pts

1175.0m

Run Metres

1305.8m

3.8

Clean Breaks

6.6

368.6

Tackles

309.6

11.4

Errors

8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference15.0%

Wolves

Forward Pack12.0%

Olympique

Backline Quality10.0%

Wolves

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Wolves

Halves Control9.0%

Wolves

Venue Advantage8.0%

—

H2H History6.0%

Wolves

Model Confidence

52%

Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.5

2/4 match predictions correct