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Super League | Round 11

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LEIGH SPORTS VILLAGE STADIUM • SATURDAY 16 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEI

Leigh Leopards

1620
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 55%

AI Win Probability

55%Hull KRFavourite

Leigh Leopards

45%

Hull KR

55%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Leigh Leopards are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1688 vs 1540). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 5.4 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.82

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -5.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R6W
R7L
R8W
R9W
R10W

older → newer

21.6
Hull KR
R6W
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
44.0

Avg Conceded

20.4

Leigh Leopards

6.8

Hull KR

Avg Margin

1.2

Leigh Leopards

37.2

Hull KR

Run Metres

1218

Leigh Leopards

1487

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

5.6

Leigh Leopards

6.8

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 4-1
Jul 2025LEI 28 - 10 HKR
Apr 2025LEI 0 - 30 HKR
Feb 2024LEI 0 - 12 HKR
Sep 2024LEI 0 - 24 HKR
Feb 2023LEI 6 - 20 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1540Overall1688
HKR
ELO difference: -148 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

893Forwards840
Best: 1165LEI +53Best: 1122
759Backs990
Best: 865HKR +231Best: 1232
1459Halves999
Best: 1459LEI +460Best: 999
947Hooker1231
HKR +284

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
HKR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
21.6pts
Avg Score
44.0pts
20.4pts
Avg Conceded
6.8pts
1.2pts
Avg Margin
37.2pts
1218.0m
Run Metres
1486.8m
5.6
Clean Breaks
6.8
329.6
Tackles
287.0
8.4
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

55%

Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: -5.4

4/4 match predictions correct