# Leigh Leopards v Hull KR — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 16 – 20 Hull KR

_Hull KR survive a scare against Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 6 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 45% / Hull KR 55% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sun, 17 May, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Jacob Alick-Wiencke (14' 1st), Josh Charnley (65'), Jack Hughes (70') · Hull KR: Peta Hiku (27'), Tom Davies (32'), Arthur Mourgue (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 55% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 16–20 Hull KR in Super League Round 11 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards out-ran Hull KR by 351 metres, out-broke them 7 line breaks to 3, and racked up 39 tackle busts to Hull KR's 17. On most nights that's a winning ledger. On this one, Leigh Leopards lost 20-16.

The problem was timing, and discipline early. Rhyse Martin slotted a penalty goal inside five minutes, and even after Jacob Alick-Wiencke crossed to put Leigh Leopards 6-2 up, the concessions kept coming. Leigh Leopards gave away 7 penalties to Hull KR's 4, and between the 27th and 38th minutes Hull KR turned that field position into three tries. Peta Hiku, then Tom Davies, then Arthur Mourgue, with Martin converting all three, and suddenly a two-point game was a 20-6 rout by half-time. Leigh Leopards didn't manage another point until the 65th minute.

That's the frustrating part for Leigh Leopards. The raw attacking numbers back up what the positional ratings suggested going in, a halves edge of 1459 to 999 that should have translated into more than three tries. It did produce the ball movement, the offloads (12 to Hull KR's 2), the busts, the breaks. What it didn't produce was field position when it mattered, and 16 errors compared to Hull KR's 11 kept handing it back.

Hull KR didn't need to dominate the collision to win it. They needed six clinical minutes either side of half-time, and that's exactly what they got. Their hooker rating of 1231 against Leigh Leopards' 947 showed up in the way they controlled that middle third of the first half, and their backs advantage, 990 to 759, turned into the type of finishing that Hiku, Davies and Mourgue delivered.

Leigh Leopards did find a way back into it. Josh Charnley scored in the 65th minute, Jack Hughes followed in the 70th, and Adam Cook's conversion two minutes later made it 16-20. Suddenly a laugher was a four-point game with time still on the clock. It just wasn't quite enough time, or enough polish, to complete the comeback.

Form lines told two different stories walking in. Hull KR arrived on a five-from-five run, averaging 44 points a game and conceding under 7. Leigh Leopards had won four of their last five but were grinding out 1.2-point margins on average. That gulf in scoring form showed up early doors and Leigh Leopards never fully closed it, despite outworking Hull KR in almost every attacking column that matters.

Alphr's model had Hull KR favourites at 55%, with an expected margin of 5.4 and a combined total of 36. The final result: Hull KR by 4, total of 36. Both picks landed, and the margin call in particular was about as sharp as it gets. Leigh Leopards can point to the stat sheet and argue they deserved better. The scoreboard, and that brutal 12-minute stretch either side of half-time, says otherwise.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,379** | Run metres | 1,028 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **12** | Offloads | 2 |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/4 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 16 | Errors | 11 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 5.4 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 36 was close to the actual 36, within 0 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (41/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 4 · Hull KR 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 5 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 55%, but Leigh Leopards stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 148 ELO points clear, 1688 to 1540. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leigh Leopards.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 36. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 44.0pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 6.8pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 37.2pts |
| 1225.0m | Run Metres | 1494.2m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 6.8 |
| 329.6 | Tackles | 287.0 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 21.6 |
| Hull KR | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 44.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Hull KR | 22 – 8 | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR 83% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Hull KR | 30 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 12 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 0 – 24 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.9 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 9th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.22 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 11th there (2.3 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.4/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.3/g (def 11th (weak)) | 3.22/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 17 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 99m/g | 224m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 15 | 23 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 473m/g | 647m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 12.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 6 | 6 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 370m/g | 299m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.27) -11% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.48) -31% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 4/4g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Josh Charnley | CE | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·2·2) | 17/18g | 4/4g | 48% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 5 | Lachlan Lam | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 2/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Joe Ofahengaue | HB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Edwin Ipape | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Trout | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Frankie Halton | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 12 | Isaac Liu | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack Hughes | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 1/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Bailey Hodgson | INT | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Alwyn Towse | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 11 in 8g | 14/10g (1·2·0·1·1·1·3·2·2·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 64% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·0·3·0·0·4·1) | 9/9g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1540 · Hull KR 1688 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)