# Huddersfield Giants v St Helens — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 18 – 26 St Helens

_St Helens march past Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 33% / St Helens 67% · The Accu Stadium · Fri, 15 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Asher O'Donnell (49'), Adam Swift (62'), Niall Evalds (74') · St Helens: Harry Robertson (2' 1st), Lewis Murphy (7'), Owen Dagnall (18'), George Delaney (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 67% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 18–26 St Helens in Super League Round 11 at The Accu Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens by 4.6, on a combined total of 38. Final score: Huddersfield Giants 18, St Helens 26. The winner was right, the margin wasn't far off either, but the shape of the game bore no resemblance to what a modest 4.6-point tip suggests. This one was 24-0 at the break before Huddersfield turned it into a contest.

St Helens simply ran away with the first half. Harry Robertson opened the scoring inside two minutes, Lewis Murphy added a second by the 7th, Owen Dagnall made it three tries and 16 points by the 18th minute, and George Delaney's try right on the stroke of half-time took it to 24-0. Jackson Hastings landed every conversion on offer. Four tries, four conversions, no reply. That's about as clean a half as you'll see from a side rated stronger across the park, forwards 908 to 886, halves 1070 to 1000, hooker 1070 to 968.

Then the contest actually started. Huddersfield came out and scored 18 unanswered points across the second half, through Asher O'Donnell, Adam Swift and Niall Evalds, with Oliver Russell converting all three. Jackson Hastings' 65th-minute penalty goal was St Helens' only response after the break, and it turned out to be the score that mattered, stretching the margin back out to 14 before Evalds' late try in the 74th brought it to the final 26-18.

The stat sheet tells you why Huddersfield could claw back a game they'd been buried in. They out-ran St Helens 1,125 metres to 1,044, beat them on tackle busts 30 to 25 and offloads 13 to 10, and were the tidier side with the ball, just 10 errors to St Helens' 13. Line breaks were shared three apiece. On completion alone, Huddersfield were arguably the better side across the 80 minutes. They just spent half of it 24 points behind.

That gap tells its own story about form heading in. St Helens arrived on a four-game unbeaten run, Huddersfield on a two-and-three slide, and the season averages back it up: St Helens conceding 23.6 a game to Huddersfield's 30, with a positive average margin of 1.6 against Huddersfield's minus 8. The first 40 minutes at The Accu Stadium looked exactly like that gap in numbers made flesh.

The second half looked like neither team's form line, which is the honest read here. Huddersfield's fightback wasn't nothing, 18 points and three tries against the competition's stingier defence is a real shift in territory and go-forward. But building a 24-0 buffer before your opponent finds their footing is precisely how the stronger side on paper turns a probable win into a comfortable one, whatever the final margin ends up reading.

For Alphr's model, it's a clean scorecard: correct winner at 67 percent, and a predicted margin of 4.6 that landed within striking distance of the actual 8. The number undersold how lopsided the first half was and how much ground Huddersfield made up late, but on the two calls that count, winner and margin, it held up.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,125** | Run metres | 1,044 |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 25 |
| **13** | Offloads | 10 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 5/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Helens by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 8 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 5 · St Helens 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 5 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 67% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 324 ELO points clear, 1655 to 1332. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Huddersfield Giants.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has St Helens by 4.6, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back St Helens to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 1262.0m | Run Metres | 1280.0m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 312.4 | Tackles | 324.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 22.0 |
| St Helens | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | St Helens | 38 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens 77% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | St Helens | 52 – 4 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 13 – 12 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 18 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.7 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 14th there (2.9 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) | 0.8/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.9/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2.2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.7/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 6th) | 1.4/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 14 | 7 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 122m/g | 220m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 22 | 19 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 474m/g | 476m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 15.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 84.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 10 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 314m/g | 309m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Centres 0.4/g (lg 0.48) -17% · Wingers 0.81/g (lg 0.98) -17%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.18) +89% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.2) +50% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.48) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Accu Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Adam Swift | WG | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 66% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/5g | 49% | — | — |
| 4 | Lewis Jagger | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Lee Kershaw | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Tui Lolohea | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Tuimoala Lolohea | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Oliver Russell | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Olly Russell | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 5% | — | — |
| 10 | Tristan Powell | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 12 | Chris Patolo | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Rushton | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Cole Geyer | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | George King | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/19g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Taane Milne | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthew English | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/2g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 45% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/12g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/22g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/21g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | George Delaney | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 15 | Jonny Lomax | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Davies | INT | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 17 | Curtis Sironen | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1332 · St Helens 1655 · ELO difference: 324 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — St Helens predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)