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Super League | Round 11

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THE ACCU STADIUM • THURSDAY 14 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

1826
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%St HelensFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

33%

St Helens

67%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees St Helens ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 324-point ELO rating advantage (1655 vs 1332). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts St Helens by 4.6 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.49

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens -4.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R6W
R7W
R8L
R9L
R10L

older → newer

22.0
St Helens
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
25.2

Avg Conceded

30.0

Huddersfield Giants

23.6

St Helens

Avg Margin

-8.0

Huddersfield Giants

1.6

St Helens

Run Metres

1255

Huddersfield Giants

1274

St Helens

Clean Breaks

5.4

Huddersfield Giants

4.4

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
Aug 2025HUD 4 - 52 STH
May 2025HUD 4 - 46 STH
Feb 2024HUD 12 - 13 STH
Aug 2024HUD 10 - 18 STH
Mar 2024HUD 0 - 28 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1332Overall1655
STH
ELO difference: -324 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

886Forwards908
Best: 1029STH +22Best: 1220
928Backs951
Best: 1124STH +22Best: 1142
1000Halves1070
Best: 1000STH +70Best: 1070
968Hooker1070
STH +101

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
STH
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
22.0pts
Avg Score
25.2pts
30.0pts
Avg Conceded
23.6pts
-8.0pts
Avg Margin
1.6pts
1255.0m
Run Metres
1273.6m
5.4
Clean Breaks
4.4
312.4
Tackles
324.8
9.2
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

67%

St Helens predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: -4.6

3/4 match predictions correct