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Super League | Round 11

alphr.com.au

Thu 14 May10:00am
HUDHUD
STHSTH
Fri 15 May10:00am
WIGWIG
LEELEE
Fri 15 May10:00am
WAKWAK
CATCAT
Sat 16 May10:00am
YRKYRK
CASCAS
Sat 16 May10:00am
LEILEI
HKRHKR
Sat 16 May10:00am
TOTO
WARWAR
Sun 17 May10:00am
BRDBRD
HULHUL
BRD
Bradford Bulls
VS
HUL
Hull FC
BARTERCARD ODSAL STADIUM • SUNDAY 17 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
16
14

Scoring Breakdown

BullsFC
2Tries2
1/2Conversions1/2
3/3Penalty Goals2/2
7Penalties Conceded9
17Errors16
0Send Offs1
3Line Breaks2
28Tackle Busts14
10Offloads8
1353Metres1193

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
🤔Questionable

Bulls had a +2 penalty advantage in a close contest. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.

PENS7 – 9
ERR17 – 16

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bradford Bulls to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bradford Bulls by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Bradford Bulls firmly in control (99%)
BRA16
99%80'1%
14HUL
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Hull FC momentumMomentum -42Bradford Bulls momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

60%Bradford BullsFavourite

Bradford Bulls

60%

Hull FC

40%

✨

AI Match Overview

Bradford Bulls hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Hull FC are far from out of this at 40%. Hull FC are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Bradford Bulls counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales. Hull FC carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1458 vs 1383). Recent form favours Hull FC with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Bradford Bulls.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bradford Bulls to Win @1.65

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Bradford Bulls +0.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Bradford Bulls Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bradford Bulls
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10L

older → newer

15.6
Hull FC
R6W
R7L
R8L
R9W
R10L
19.6

Avg Conceded

40.4

Bradford Bulls

18.0

Hull FC

Avg Margin

-24.8

Bradford Bulls

1.6

Hull FC

Run Metres

1059

Bradford Bulls

1202

Hull FC

Clean Breaks

2.8

Bradford Bulls

3.6

Hull FC

H2H History (Last 1)Hull FC lead 1-0
Mar 2026BRD 20 - 27 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1458 vs 1383), but the market favours Bradford Bulls (@1.65).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRD
1383Overall1458
HUL
ELO difference: -75 in favour of Hull FC

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

832Forwards776
Best: 1032BRD +56Best: 1004
730Backs837
Best: 816HUL +107Best: 989
971Halves867
Best: 971BRD +105Best: 867
651Hooker699
HUL +48

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRD
Stat
HUL
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
15.6pts
Avg Score
19.6pts
40.4pts
Avg Conceded
18.0pts
-24.8pts
Avg Margin
1.6pts
1059.2m
Run Metres
1201.8m
2.8
Clean Breaks
3.6
346.2
Tackles
290.4
9.4
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
FC
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulls
3
Backline Quality10.0%
FC
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
FC
5
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Bulls
7
H2H History6.0%
FC

Model Confidence

60%

Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.7

2/4 match predictions correct