# Bradford Bulls v Hull FC — Super League Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 16 – 14 Hull FC

_Bradford Bulls scrape past Hull FC in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 60% / Hull FC 40% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Mon, 18 May, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Waqa Blake (56' 1st), Ethan Ryan (66') · Hull FC: Joe Batchelor (62'), Davy Litten (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | 60% | Won |
| Hull FC | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Bradford Bulls 16–14 Hull FC in Super League Round 11 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls edged Hull FC 16–14 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Bradford Bulls led 6–4 at half-time and held on.

Waqa Blake opened the scoring; Bradford Bulls crossed through Waqa Blake and Ethan Ryan; Hull FC scored through Joe Batchelor and Davy Litten.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 16 times to 17. Bradford Bulls were sharper in attack, breaking the line 3 times to 2 and busting 28 tackles. Bradford Bulls held the discipline edge, conceding 7 penalties to 9. In a 2-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,346** | Run metres | 1,185 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| 17 | Errors | **16** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 17 | Errors | 16 |
| 0 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bradford Bulls to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bradford Bulls by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 2 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (42/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 7 · Hull FC 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bradford Bulls to win — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Bradford Bulls 1-12 — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bradford Bulls by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bradford Bulls are the call at 60%, but Hull FC stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull FC sit 75 ELO points clear, 1458 to 1383, so the model is backing Bradford Bulls against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull FC's way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Bradford Bulls.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Bradford Bulls, which says Forward Pack and Halves Control carry the most weight. Lean Bradford Bulls, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 40.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -24.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 1066.6m | Run Metres | 1208.6m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 346.2 | Tackles | 290.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 15.6 |
| Hull FC | R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Hull FC lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Hull FC | 27 – 20 | Bradford Bulls | Hull FC 78% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 9th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.1 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 13th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.3/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.7/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 27 | 18 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 500m/g | 505m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 9 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 273m/g | 326m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.3/g (lg 0.06) +400% · Five-Eighths 0.5/g (lg 0.2) +150% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.48) +88%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Ed Chamberlain | CE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Christopher Atkin | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Eribe Doro | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 25% | — | — |
| 13 | William Gardiner | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Gill | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Hallas | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hallas | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ligi Sao | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 12 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Brad Fash | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan O'Neill | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1458 vs 1383), but the market favours Bradford Bulls (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1383 · Hull FC 1458 · ELO difference: 75 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull FC |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)