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Super League | Round 10

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SATURDAY 2 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

3814
BRD

Bradford Bulls

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 80%

AI Win Probability

80%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

80%

Bradford Bulls

20%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bradford Bulls. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Wigan Warriors carry a 155-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1405). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 9.7 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +9.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R5W
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L

older → newer

16.6
Bradford Bulls
R5W
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
18.0

Avg Conceded

27.4

Wigan Warriors

35.6

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

-10.8

Wigan Warriors

-17.6

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

1189

Wigan Warriors

1108

Bradford Bulls

Clean Breaks

4.0

Wigan Warriors

3.4

Bradford Bulls

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1561Overall1405
BRD
ELO difference: +155 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

922Forwards872
Best: 1213WIG +49Best: 1034
713Backs855
Best: 788BRD +142Best: 975
845Halves730
Best: 845WIG +115Best: 730
1083Hooker1456
BRD +373

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
BRD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
16.6pts
Avg Score
18.0pts
27.4pts
Avg Conceded
35.6pts
-10.8pts
Avg Margin
-17.6pts
1189.2m
Run Metres
1108.0m
4.0
Clean Breaks
3.4
345.8
Tackles
356.6
11.4
Errors
8.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulls
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

80%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +9.7

3/4 match predictions correct