# St Helens v York Knights — Super League Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 40 – 16 York Knights

_St Helens march all over York Knights._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 76% / York Knights 24% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 02 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Bill Leyland (11' 1st), Owen Dagnall (15'), Owen Dagnall (18'), Alex Walmsley (61'), Jack Welsby (67'), Jake Davies (74'), Nene Macdonald (76') · York Knights: Jesse Dee (28'), Jesse Dee (36'), Scott Galeano (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 76% | Won |
| York Knights | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

St Helens 40–16 York Knights in Super League Round 10 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had St Helens winning by 7.6 points. They won by 24. That's the kind of gap that makes you double check the scoreboard, but it's right there: St Helens 40, York Knights 16 at The BrewDog Stadium.

Start with what the model got right. It picked St Helens at 76 per cent to win and had the total at 54, finishing within two points of the actual 56. A solid read on the shape of the contest. Where it fell over was the margin, and the story of that gap is in how the match actually unfolded.

St Helens scored first through Bill Leyland in the 11th minute, then Owen Dagnall crossed twice in quick succession, in the 15th and again in the 18th, to make it 16-0. York Knights hit back through Jesse Dee, who scored either side of half-time, in the 28th and 36th minutes, to drag it to 16-10. That's where the score sat at the break: St Helens 16, York Knights 10. A six-point game, and on the ratings alone you could see why the model didn't expect a blowout.

Then the second half happened. St Helens didn't score again until the 61st minute, but from there they didn't stop. Alex Walmsley, Jack Welsby, Jake Davies and Nene Macdonald all crossed between the 61st and 76th minutes, with Jackson Hastings converting most of it, and a six-point half-time lead turned into a 30-point one before York's Scott Galeano grabbed a late consolation try in the 79th.

The forward numbers explain most of the gap. St Helens ran for 1,355 metres to York's 1,004, and broke the line five times to York's one. That's not a marginal edge, that's one side going through and around defenders while the other struggles to get over the advantage line. St Helens also conceded just six penalties to York's nine, which matters when field position is being built the hard way through metres rather than through penalty relief.

York actually won a few of the underlying battles. They made 42 tackle busts to St Helens' 33 and offloaded eight times to St Helens' four, so there was footwork and support play in their game. Problem is none of it translated into points, because once you're not breaking the line and you're leaking penalties, individual work counts for less. Errors were close, 10 to 9, so it wasn't a case of St Helens capitalising on York handing them the ball. They earned the position through metres and line breaks, not gifts.

The pre-match ratings pointed to a tighter contest than what played out. York actually rated stronger in the backs, 1025 to 879, and at hooker, 871 to 708, which lines up with the offload and tackle-bust numbers: York had players capable of getting an extra pass away. But St Helens held the forward edge, 876 to 834, and on the day that was the difference, because go-forward wins out when it's that lopsided.

Form going in had St Helens on four wins from five against York's one, and the result followed that trend rather than bucking it. The model backed the right side and landed close on the total. The margin is the one it will want to look at again.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,355** | Run metres | 1,004 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 33 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| 4 | Offloads | **8** |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 6/8 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 54 was close to the actual 56, within 2 points. St Helens led 16–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties St Helens 6 · York Knights 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 76.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 8 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 76% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 228 ELO points clear, 1639 to 1411. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for York Knights.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 54. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.0pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1226.8m | Run Metres | 1430.6m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 325.0 | Tackles | 336.2 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 23.2 |
| York Knights | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | York Knights | 34 – 32 | St Helens | St Helens 66% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 9th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.78 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Vaughan, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 6th) | 0.56/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.89/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 7th) | 1.78/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.11/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.56/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 228m/g | 119m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 19 | 15 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 469m/g | 469m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 87.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 2 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 293m/g | 312m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.25) +124% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.05) +120% · Wingers 1.78/g (lg 0.96) +85%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.2) +0% · Centres 0.41/g (lg 0.48) -15% · Wingers 0.8/g (lg 0.96) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 14/17g | 33% | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 12/13g | 76% | — | — |
| 3 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Harry Robertson | CE | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/15g | 31% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/10g | 30% | — | 🏉 15' 18' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 14/67g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/59g | 8% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 9 | Bill Leyland | HK | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 7% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/57g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/28g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | David Klemmer | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Davies | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 15 | Jack Welsby | INT | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 34/62g | 24% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/35g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Stephens | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 9% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Nofoaluma | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (1·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Myles Harrison | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Kieran Buchanan | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ata Hingano | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 28' 36' |
| 13 | Sam Cook | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Littlewood | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1639 · York Knights 1411 · ELO difference: 228 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — St Helens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 54 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)