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Super League | Round 10

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 1 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
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STH

St Helens

4016
YRK

York Knights

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

76%

York Knights

24%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over York Knights. The model sees St Helens ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 228-point ELO rating advantage (1639 vs 1411). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for York Knights. The margin model predicts St Helens by 7.6 points with a combined total of 54.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.31

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens +7.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9W

older → newer

23.2
York Knights
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9W
18.8

Avg Conceded

23.6

St Helens

23.0

York Knights

Avg Margin

-0.4

St Helens

-4.2

York Knights

Run Metres

1220

St Helens

1423

York Knights

Clean Breaks

4.2

St Helens

4.4

York Knights

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1639Overall1411
YRK
ELO difference: +228 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

876Forwards834
Best: 1119STH +42Best: 1194
879Backs1025
Best: 1047YRK +146Best: 1265
1015Halves1025
Best: 1015EvenBest: 1025
708Hooker871
YRK +163

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
YRK
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
23.2pts
Avg Score
18.8pts
23.6pts
Avg Conceded
23.0pts
-0.4pts
Avg Margin
-4.2pts
1220.4m
Run Metres
1422.8m
4.2
Clean Breaks
4.4
325.0
Tackles
336.2
10.6
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Knights
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

76%

St Helens predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 54 · Line: +7.6

3/4 match predictions correct