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Super League | Round 10

alphr.com.au

Thu 30 Apr10:00am
HKRHKR
CASCAS
Fri 1 May10:00am
LEELEE
WAKWAK
Fri 1 May10:00am
STHSTH
YRKYRK
Sat 2 May10:00am
WIGWIG
BRDBRD
Sat 2 May10:00am
CATCAT
LEILEI
Sat 2 May10:00am
HUDHUD
WARWAR
Sun 3 May10:00am
HULHUL
TOUTOU
LEE
Leeds Rhinos
VS
WAK
Wakefield Trinity
AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 1 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
40
22

Scoring Breakdown

RhinosTrinity
6Tries4
5/6Conversions3/4
3/3Penalty Goals0/0
5Penalties Conceded7
10Errors9
3Sin Bins0
6Line Breaks4
33Tackle Busts23
5Offloads4
1287Metres848

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

Rhinos had a slight +2 penalty edge, but the overall balance was acceptable. No significant concerns.

PENS5 – 7
ERR10 – 9

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leeds Rhinos by 15.1 vs the actual margin of 18 points. The game's 62 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 44. Leeds Rhinos led 20–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Leeds Rhinos firmly in control (99%)
LEE40
99%80'1%
22WAK
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Wakefield Trinity momentumMomentum +70Leeds Rhinos momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

78%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

78%

Wakefield Trinity

22%

✨

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 127-point ELO rating advantage (1709 vs 1582). The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 15.1 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.28

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +15.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8W
R9W

older → newer

33.6
Wakefield Trinity
R5W
R6W
R7W
R8W
R9L
28.4

Avg Conceded

16.8

Leeds Rhinos

11.6

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

16.8

Leeds Rhinos

16.8

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1406

Leeds Rhinos

1396

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

6.2

Leeds Rhinos

7.0

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Jul 2025LEE 14 - 15 WAK
Jun 2025LEE 22 - 18 WAK
Mar 2025LEE 12 - 14 WAK
Jun 2023LEE 14 - 24 WAK
Mar 2023LEE 26 - 0 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1709Overall1582
WAK
ELO difference: +127 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

906Forwards874
Best: 1208LEE +32Best: 1199
1036Backs801
Best: 1244LEE +235Best: 934
1213Halves894
Best: 1213LEE +319Best: 894
1103Hooker1250
WAK +146

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
WAK
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
33.6pts
Avg Score
28.4pts
16.8pts
Avg Conceded
11.6pts
16.8pts
Avg Margin
16.8pts
1405.6m
Run Metres
1395.6m
6.2
Clean Breaks
7.0
279.0
Tackles
348.4
8.4
Errors
13.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

78%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 15 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +15.1

4/4 match predictions correct