# Leeds Rhinos v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 40 – 22 Wakefield Trinity

_Leeds Rhinos trample Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 20 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 78% / Wakefield Trinity 22% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 02 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Maika Sivo (14' 1st), Kallum Watkins (18'), Maika Sivo (31' 1st), Brodie Croft (52'), Maika Sivo (65' 1st), Brodie Croft (76') · Wakefield Trinity: Oliver Pratt (25'), Tray Lolesio (39'), Jayden Myers (47'), Jayden Myers (61')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 78% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 40–22 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 10 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty points to twenty-two flatters the gap. For long stretches at AMT Headingley Stadium, Wakefield Trinity were very much in this, and the ledger backs that up: Leeds Rhinos led by just six points, 28-22, with the clock past the hour mark.

Leeds started like they meant business. Jake Connor's early penalty goal opened it, then Maika Sivo crossed inside quarter of an hour and Kallum Watkins followed soon after, Leeds out to 20-6 by the half-hour. Oliver Pratt got Wakefield on the board in between, and Tray Lolesio's try right on the stroke of half-time trimmed it to 20-12 at the break. Not the demolition the final score suggests, not yet.

Wakefield kept coming. Jayden Myers crossed twice, either side of the hour, and each time Wakefield clawed back within single figures. At 28-22 with Leeds' lead down to six, this was still very much live. Then Leeds found another gear nobody at Wakefield had an answer for: Brodie Croft's second try in the 76th minute, converted, and Sivo's third earlier at 65 had already done the damage on the scoreboard even if not yet on the margin. By full time it read 40-22, a gap that only really opened up in the last quarter of an hour.

The stat sheet explains why Leeds always had the edge even when the score didn't show it. They ran for 1,281 metres to Wakefield's 842, busted 33 tackles to 23, and broke the line six times against four. That's a forward and backline pack functioning as advertised: Leeds went in rated well clear across the backs (1036 to 801) and halves (1213 to 894), and it showed in the metres gained and holes found.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,281** | Run metres | 842 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **33** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 8/9 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |
| 3 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leeds Rhinos by 15.1 vs the actual margin of 18 points. The game's 62 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 44. Leeds Rhinos led 20–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (20/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Wakefield Trinity 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 78.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 15 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 78% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 127 ELO points clear, 1709 to 1582.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 15.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 33.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 11.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Margin | 16.8pts |
| 1412.4m | Run Metres | 1402.2m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 7.0 |
| 278.6 | Tackles | 348.4 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 33.6 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wakefield Trinity | 22 – 24 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 15 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 18 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 24 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.44 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 3rd there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 4th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.78/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.11/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 2.44/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.78/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 2 | 3 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 141m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 13 | 29 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 333m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 84.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 4 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 335m/g | 335m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.25) +52% · Centres 0.65/g (lg 0.48) +35% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.18) -11% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 14 in 8g | 14/8g (2·4·3·0·3·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 9/4g | 75% | — | 🏉 14' 31' 65' |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 50% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/17g | 9/19g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 5/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 11 in 8g | 11/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·4·1) | 1/7g | 11/27g | 46% | — | 🏉 52' 76' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 7/29g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 3/16g | 12% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 4/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 10 in 7g | 10/7g (1·1·1·2·2·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 86% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 47' 61' |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/23g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jay Pitts | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Ky Rodwell | LK | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Caius Faatili | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 17 | Will Tate | INT | 3 in 3g | 8/9g (2·0·0·0·0·3·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1709 · Wakefield Trinity 1582 · ELO difference: 127 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)