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Super League | Round 10

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 3 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

412
TO

Toulouse Olympique

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 73%

AI Win Probability

73%HullFavourite

Hull

73%

Toulouse Olympique

27%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. The model sees Hull ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull carry a 161-point ELO rating advantage (1497 vs 1336). Recent form favours Hull with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Hull by 11.4 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.36

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull +11.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R5W
R6W
R7L
R8L
R9W

older → newer

23.6
Toulouse Olympique
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
15.2

Avg Conceded

18.8

Hull

33.6

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

4.8

Hull

-18.4

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1191

Hull

1184

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

3.8

Hull

4.0

Toulouse Olympique

H2H History (Last 3)Hull lead 3-0
Sep 2022HUL 38 - 12 TO
Aug 2022HUL 30 - 6 TO
May 2022HUL 48 - 12 TO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1497Overall1336
TO
ELO difference: +161 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

886Forwards878
Best: 1084EvenBest: 1222
906Backs835
Best: 1090HUL +71Best: 979
1166Halves848
Best: 1166HUL +318Best: 848
1144Hooker1584
TO +440

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
TO
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
23.6pts
Avg Score
15.2pts
18.8pts
Avg Conceded
33.6pts
4.8pts
Avg Margin
-18.4pts
1191.0m
Run Metres
1184.4m
3.8
Clean Breaks
4.0
287.4
Tackles
342.6
9.8
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Olympique
7
H2H History6.0%
Hull

Model Confidence

73%

Hull predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +11.4

0/4 match predictions correct