Hull KR
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Hull KR
82%
Castleford Tigers
18%
AI Match Overview
Hull KR are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 341-point ELO rating advantage (1675 vs 1335). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 19.4 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull KR to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Hull KR +19.4 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull KR 13-24 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull KR | R5L R6W R7W R8W R9W older → newer | 38.0 |
Castleford Tigers | R5L R6W R7L R8W R9L | 16.0 |
Avg Conceded
10.8
Hull KR
39.6
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
27.2
Hull KR
-23.6
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1431
Hull KR
1004
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
6.4
Hull KR
3.4
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
Hull KR predicted to win by 19 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +19.4