# Hull KR v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 50 – 6 Castleford Tigers

_Hull KR run riot over Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 34 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 82% / Castleford Tigers 18% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 01 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Karl Lawton (9' 1st), Karl Lawton (15' 1st), Tom Amone (25'), Tom Davies (31'), Dean Hadley (35'), Tom Davies (39'), Mikey Lewis (42'), Joe Burgess (60'), Tom Davies (74') · Castleford Tigers: Krystian Mapapalangi (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 82% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.4 predicted → 44 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull KR 50–6 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 10 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

By half-time it was already 34-0, and the only question left was how much further Hull KR wanted to take it. The answer, it turned out, was a lot further. Castleford Tigers arrived at Sewell Group Craven Park and left with a 50-6 defeat that the second half only confirmed.

The scoring had started early and never really stopped. Karl Lawton opened it in the 9th minute, added a second in the 15th, and by the 39th minute Tom Davies had crossed to make it 34-0 at the break. Six tries inside 39 minutes is not a slow start, it's a procession, and Castleford had no answer for any of it.

The second half was less about a comeback and more about Hull KR deciding to keep going. Mikey Lewis scored in the 42nd minute, Joe Burgess in the 60th, and Tom Davies completed his hat-trick in the 74th to push it to 50-0. Castleford's only points came in the final minute, Krystian Mapapalangi crossing in the 79th and Daejarn Asi adding the conversion for a 50-6 final margin that flattered the scoreboard more than the performance.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Hull KR ran for 1,550 metres to Castleford's 728, more than double, and broke the line seven times to one. Thirty-one tackle busts to twenty tells the same story: Hull KR were finding space Castleford simply didn't have the go-forward to close down. Nine offloads to five added to the sense of a side playing with the ball rather than just carrying it.

Oddly enough, Castleford were the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing it up nine times to Hull KR's ten. It didn't matter. When you're missing that much territory and that many line breaks, a cleaner error count is a consolation prize, not a platform.

The positional numbers going in explain plenty. Hull KR's halves rating of 1406 against Castleford's 627 was always going to be the difference-maker in a game decided by who controlled the ruck and the ball, and it showed. Hull KR's forward pack (911 to 708) and backline (971 to 855) held clear edges too, and Castleford's lone advantage, at hooker, 673 to 600, wasn't enough to change the shape of the contest.

Form lines pointed this way as well. Hull KR came in on four wins from their last five, averaging 38 points scored and just 10.8 conceded. Castleford's last five read two wins, three losses, and an average concession of 39.6 points, a number that turned out to be almost exactly what they shipped here.

Alphr's model had Hull KR at 82% to win, and got the result right without much trouble. The margin was another matter: the model predicted a 19.4-point win, the reality was 44. Big favourites sometimes do more damage than the numbers expect, and this was one of those days. One from two on this one, and no complaints about which half it got wrong.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,550** | Run metres | 728 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 1 |
| 7/9 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.4 but the actual margin was 44 points. Hull KR led 34–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (6/100) — penalties Hull KR 5 · Castleford Tigers 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 82.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 19 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 82% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 341 ELO points clear, 1675 to 1335. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 19.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 38.0pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Conceded | 39.6pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Margin | -23.6pts |
| 1438.0m | Run Metres | 1010.2m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 314.2 | Tackles | 304.8 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 38.0 |
| Castleford Tigers | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 44 | Hull KR | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 48 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Hull KR | 19 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 13th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 8th) | 0.56/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.11/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 2 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 3.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 73m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 91.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 12 | 11 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 638m/g | 386m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 3 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 288m/g | 271m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 94.5% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.05) +180% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.25) +60% · Wingers 1.46/g (lg 0.96) +52%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.27) -11% · Centres 0.32/g (lg 0.48) -33% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 11/23g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 8/19g | 30% | — | 🏉 31' 39' 74' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 12/28g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/12g | 7/14g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 10 in 7g | 14/10g (1·1·2·0·1·1·1·3·2·2) | 17/15g | 25/23g | 62% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·3·0·0·4) | 4/10g | 30/48g | 52% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 8/28g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/19g | 1/45g | 8% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 9' 15' |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/15g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 13/37g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 4/51g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/14g | 10/53g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/40g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 5/30g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/23g | 2% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley Dwyer | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Brock Greacen | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Cain Robb | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Nicholson-watton | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1675 · Castleford Tigers 1335 · ELO difference: 341 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)