# Hull FC v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 4 – 12 Toulouse Olympique

_Toulouse Olympique see off Hull FC._

Half time: 4 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 73% / Toulouse Olympique 27% · MKM Stadium · Mon, 04 May, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Tom Briscoe (31') · Toulouse Olympique: Olly Ashall-Bott (5' 1st), Joe Cator (9')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 73% | Lost |
| Toulouse Olympique | 27% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull FC 4–12 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 10 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique held off Hull FC 12–4 at MKM Stadium. Toulouse Olympique led 12–4 at half-time and held on.

Olly Ashall-Bott opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Tom Briscoe; Toulouse Olympique scored through Olly Ashall-Bott and Joe Cator.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 11 times to 13. Toulouse Olympique were sharper in attack, breaking the line 3 times to 2. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 2 penalties to 7.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| **1,122** | Run metres | 1,107 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 27 |
| **11** | Offloads | 5 |
| **11** | Errors | 13 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 11 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Toulouse Olympique defied the model's 73% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 16 points came in 31 points lower than the predicted 47. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (46/100) — penalties Hull FC 2 · Toulouse Olympique 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 73.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 73.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 73.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 11 · Predicted total: 47

### H2H History (Last 4) — Hull FC lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Toulouse Olympique | 44 – 30 | Hull FC | Toulouse Olympique 60% ✓ |
| 2022 | R26 | Hull FC | 38 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R21 | Toulouse Olympique | 6 – 30 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2022 | R11 | Hull FC | 48 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 11th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.89/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 7th) | 1.11/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 3 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 92m/g | 143m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 22 | 17 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 505m/g | 535m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 19.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 8 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 339m/g | 286m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.22/g (lg 0.05) +340% · Props 0.33/g (lg 0.14) +136% · Wingers 2.11/g (lg 0.98) +115%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/24g | 26% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 7/22g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 9g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 23/30g | 56% | — | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Fash | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/45g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/20g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 3/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/26g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Batchelor | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Mathieu Jussaume | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/9g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Shorrocks | HB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/18g | 0% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | AJ Wallace | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ellis Gillam | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)