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Super League | Round 10

alphr.com.au

Thu 30 Apr10:00am
HKRHKR
CASCAS
Fri 1 May10:00am
LEELEE
WAKWAK
Fri 1 May10:00am
STHSTH
YRKYRK
Sat 2 May10:00am
WIGWIG
BRDBRD
Sat 2 May10:00am
CATCAT
LEILEI
Sat 2 May10:00am
HUDHUD
WARWAR
Sun 3 May10:00am
HULHUL
TOTO
HUL
Hull FC
VS
TO
Toulouse Olympique
MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 3 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
4
12

Scoring Breakdown

FCOlympique
1Tries2
0/1Conversions2/2
2Penalties Conceded7
11Errors13
2Line Breaks3
31Tackle Busts27
11Offloads5
1126Metres1115

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
🤔Questionable

FC had a +5 penalty advantage. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.

PENS2 – 7
ERR11 – 13

AI Game Review

Toulouse Olympique defied the model's 73% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 16 points came in 31 points lower than the predicted 47. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Toulouse Olympique firmly in control (99%)
HUL4
1%80'99%
12TOU
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Toulouse Olympique momentumMomentum +0Hull FC momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

73%Hull FCFavourite

Hull FC

73%

Toulouse Olympique

27%

✨

AI Match Overview

Hull FC are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. Toulouse Olympique are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Hull FC counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Toulouse Olympique carry a 39-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1477). Recent form favours Hull FC with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Hull FC by 11.4 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull FC to Win @1.36

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Hull FC +11.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Hull FC 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull FC
R5W
R6W
R7L
R8L
R9W

older → newer

28.0
Toulouse Olympique
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
25.9

Avg Conceded

25.0

Hull FC

19.0

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

7.6

Hull FC

15.4

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1506

Hull FC

1207

Toulouse Olympique

Line Breaks

7.9

Hull FC

5.2

Toulouse Olympique

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1516 vs 1477), but the market favours Hull FC (@1.36).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1477Overall1516
TO
ELO difference: -39 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

931Forwards1047
TO +115
974Backs988
TO +14
935Halves1075
TO +140
985Hooker1012
TO +27

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
TO
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.8
28.0pts
Avg Score
25.9pts
25.0pts
Avg Conceded
19.0pts
7.6pts
Avg Margin
15.4pts
1506.0m
Run Metres
1207.0m
7.9
Line Breaks
5.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Olympique
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Olympique
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Olympique
4
Halves Control9.0%
Olympique
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
FC
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
FC
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

73%

Hull FC predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +11.4

0/4 match predictions correct