# Huddersfield Giants v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 4 – 34 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves put Huddersfield Giants to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 65% / Warrington Wolves 35% · The Accu Stadium · Sun, 03 May, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Adam Swift (63') · Warrington Wolves: Albert Hopoate (9' 1st), Toby King (15'), Josh Smith (21'), Sam Stone (27'), Joe Philbin (37'), Matty Ashton (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | 65% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.8 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 4–34 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 10 at The Accu Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine line breaks to three. That's the number that turned Huddersfield Giants over 34-4 at The Accu Stadium, and it explains everything else in the box score. Warrington Wolves didn't just find the line more often, they found it early and kept finding it.

By half-time it was 28-0. Albert Hopoate got things moving in the 9th minute, Toby King followed six minutes later, and from there Warrington barely let up: Josh Smith in the 21st, Sam Stone in the 27th, Joe Philbin right on the stroke of half-time in the 37th. Marc Sneyd didn't miss a conversion in that stretch either. Four tries, four goals, and a scoreline that had the contest more or less finished before the second half kicked off.

Huddersfield's only response came from Adam Swift in the 63rd minute, a lone try that got them off the mark but did nothing to the shape of the match. Matty Ashton added one more for Warrington in the 72nd to round out the margin at 30.

The line break count wasn't a fluke, it lines up with everything else on the sheet. Warrington ran for 1,486 metres to Huddersfield's 1,288, busted 38 tackles to 23, and did it while looking after the ball, just 9 errors against Huddersfield's 14. When one side is cleaner in possession and more direct with it, nine line breaks to three stops being a surprise and starts looking like the natural outcome.

Some of that was set up well before kickoff. Warrington came in with the stronger halves rating, 1042 to 820, and a hooker number that actually favoured Huddersfield on paper, 1088 to 820. Didn't seem to matter much. What did matter was the gap in recent scoring form: Warrington were averaging 36.2 points a game across their last five, Huddersfield were on 24 and conceding 28.4. Add it up and this result sits closer to their form lines than anyone would have picked from the pre-match numbers.

Huddersfield's discipline was actually fine, they only gave away 4 penalties to Warrington's 7. It just didn't matter when the ball was going the other way that often and that cleanly. A tidy penalty count doesn't do much when you're missing 15 tackle busts and six line breaks compared to the other side.

Alphr's model had Huddersfield as 65% favourites, expecting them to win by 0.8 points on a combined total of 45. Instead Warrington won by 30. Both picks missed, and this one wasn't close. The ELO gap, 1353 to 1561, said Warrington were the better-rated side all along, and on this night the underlying numbers were closer to the truth than the headline prediction. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was very much a miss.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,288 | Run metres | **1,486** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 14 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 65% prediction for Huddersfield Giants, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.8 but the actual margin was 30 points. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 4 · Warrington Wolves 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Huddersfield Giants to win — model probability 65.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Huddersfield Giants 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Huddersfield Giants by 1 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Huddersfield Giants here: 65% to see off Warrington Wolves. The ratings say otherwise: Warrington Wolves sit 208 ELO points clear, 1561 to 1353, so the model is backing Huddersfield Giants against the ratings gap. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Huddersfield Giants.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Huddersfield Giants, which says Forward Pack and Backline Quality carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Huddersfield Giants to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 36.2pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -4.4pts | Avg Margin | 19.8pts |
| 1252.2m | Run Metres | 1344.4m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 308.8 | Tackles | 281.6 |
| 7.4 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L | 24.0 |
| Warrington Wolves | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W | 36.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 24 | Huddersfield Giants | Warrington Wolves 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Huddersfield Giants | 23 – 10 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 24 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Huddersfield Giants | 0 – 66 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 13th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.38 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 14th there (2.78 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.44/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 10th) | 1.13/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.78/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.78/g (def 14th (weak)) | 3.38/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th) | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 14 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Run Metres | 121m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 20 | 18 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 465m/g | 426m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 84.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 303m/g | 285m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93% | 94.7% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.18) +56% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.91/g (lg 0.98) -7%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.18) +94% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.2) +50% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.48) +42%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Accu Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/15g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Adam Swift | WG | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 7/15g | 0/2g | 64% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 3/3g | 3/4g | 50% | — | — |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Tui Lolohea | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Tuimoala Lolohea | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Clune | HB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 5% | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Patolo | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Harry Rushton | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Tristan Powell | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Rush | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Taane Milne | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | George King | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/15g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Webster | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 21' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/25g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 27' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 14 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·4·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1561 vs 1353), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.53). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1353 · Warrington Wolves 1561 · ELO difference: 208 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)