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Super League | Round 10

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THE ACCU STADIUM • SATURDAY 2 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

434
WAR

Warrington Wolves

❌ Upset — model favoured Huddersfield Giants at 65%

AI Win Probability

65%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

65%

Warrington Wolves

35%

AI Match Overview

Huddersfield Giants are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control, but Huddersfield Giants counter with Forward Pack and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Warrington Wolves carry a 208-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1353). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Huddersfield Giants.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @1.53

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants +0.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8L
R9L

older → newer

24.0
Warrington Wolves
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8L
R9W
36.2

Avg Conceded

28.4

Huddersfield Giants

16.4

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-4.4

Huddersfield Giants

19.8

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1245

Huddersfield Giants

1337

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

5.2

Huddersfield Giants

7.2

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
Aug 2025HUD 23 - 10 WAR
Jun 2025HUD 24 - 16 WAR
Mar 2025HUD 12 - 20 WAR
Sep 2024HUD 0 - 66 WAR
Jun 2024HUD 0 - 48 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1561 vs 1353), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.53).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1353Overall1561
WAR
ELO difference: -208 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

899Forwards806
Best: 1272HUD +93Best: 1082
1046Backs934
Best: 1288HUD +112Best: 1157
820Halves1042
Best: 820WAR +222Best: 1042
1088Hooker820
HUD +268

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
WAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
24.0pts
Avg Score
36.2pts
28.4pts
Avg Conceded
16.4pts
-4.4pts
Avg Margin
19.8pts
1245.0m
Run Metres
1336.8m
5.2
Clean Breaks
7.2
308.8
Tackles
281.6
7.4
Errors
7.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

65%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +0.8

0/4 match predictions correct