# Catalans Dragons v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 18 – 33 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards outpace Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 52% / Leigh Leopards 48% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 03 May, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Toby Sexton (14' 1st), Tommy Makinson (51'), Tommy Makinson (60') · Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (29'), Josh Charnley (47'), Joe Ofahengaue (67'), Owen Trout (74'), Frankie Halton (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 52% | Lost |
| Leigh Leopards | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 18–33 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 10 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked Catalans Dragons here, giving them 52% to win at home and pricing Leigh Leopards as 7-point favourites in the reverse, which tells you the system saw this as tight. The combined total sat at 41. Instead, Leigh Leopards won 33-18, a 15-point margin more than double what the model expected, and the ratings gap explains why the away side never really looked like an underdog on the day. Leigh came in rated higher everywhere that matters: forwards 882 to 742, backs 999 to 823, halves 834 to 801, only the hooker column favouring Catalans at 714 to 600.

The match started with penalty goals rather than points off the back of pressure. Adam Cook slotted one in the 6th minute and another in the 13th to put Leigh up 4-0 before Catalans had troubled the scoreboard. Toby Sexton then scored and converted his own try in the space of two minutes, the 14th and 16th, to flip it 6-4 to the home side. That lead didn't last. Cook kicked his third penalty goal in the 27th to level it, and two minutes later Josh Charnley crossed for the first try of the match, sending Leigh into half-time up 10-6.

Charnley struck again in the 47th minute, stretching the margin to 6-14 early in the second half. Catalans hit back through Tommy Makinson in the 51st, converted by Sexton, cutting it to 12-14, and when Makinson scored his second in the 60th, converted a minute later, Catalans actually led 18-14. That's as close as the home side got.

From there Leigh took over completely. Joe Ofahengaue scored in the 67th to level it at 18-18, Cook's conversion putting Leigh back in front 18-20. Owen Trout crossed in the 74th, then Frankie Halton added a fourth try in the 77th, with Cook converting both. Three tries in twelve minutes turned a level game into a rout, and the 18-32 scoreline by the 78th minute was the story of the finish.

The stats back up how one-sided the ball-in-hand contest was. Leigh ran for 1,168 metres to Catalans' 859, broke the line eight times to three, and busted 38 tackles to Catalans' 23. Catalans actually shaded the error count marginally worse, 9 to 8, and conceded more penalties too, 6 to 4. The only column Catalans won was offloads, 8 to 7, which barely registers against everything else.

None of this should have been a total shock given the form both sides brought in. Leigh's last five average scoring output, 17.8 points, undersold what they're capable of, while Catalans had been conceding 27.6 a game over the same stretch. Leigh had also been the busier team through the middle, averaging 346 tackles compared to Catalans' 319, hinting at a side that grinds rather than one that gets outmuscled.

For Alphr's model, this one's a clear miss. It picked the wrong winner and undersold the margin by more than double. Both selections on the night failed, and the gap between the pre-match rating (1484 to 1510) and the final result suggests Leigh's underlying strength across the forwards and backs was worth more than the numbers had it down for.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 859 | Run metres | **1,168** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| **8** | Offloads | 7 |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 6/8 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 9 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Leigh Leopards defied the model's 52% prediction for Catalans Dragons, a notable result. The predicted margin of 7.0 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. Leigh Leopards led 6–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 15. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 6 · Leigh Leopards 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 7 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Catalans Dragons and Leigh Leopards. The model can't split them, landing on Catalans Dragons at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Leigh Leopards sit 26 ELO points clear, 1510 to 1484, so the model is backing Catalans Dragons against the ratings gap.

On paper Leigh Leopards shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Catalans Dragons, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 17.8pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.6pts |
| 1206.8m | Run Metres | 1220.2m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 319.0 | Tackles | 346.0 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 24.2 |
| Leigh Leopards | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W | 17.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards 70% ✗ |
| 2025 | R15 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 26 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leigh Leopards | 34 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 30 – 2 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 13th there (2.44 conceded/game). Key man: Dodd, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 11th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 7th) | 0.78/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.11/g (def 9th) | 1.33/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.44/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.89/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 92m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 20 | 18 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 515m/g | 480m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 13.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 85.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 1 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 236m/g | 358m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · 2nd Rows 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/5g | 44% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 9/17g | 44% | — | 🏉 51' 60' |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/12g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 6 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·1) | 0/2g | 4/7g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 2/7g | 3/9g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 8 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/41g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Benjamin Condon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 7/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Allen | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 0/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | no games | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·2) | 7/16g | 1/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 29' 47' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | David Armstrong | INT | no games | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 48% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1510 vs 1484), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.92). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1484 · Leigh Leopards 1510 · ELO difference: 26 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)