Catalans Dragons
Leigh Leopards
AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
52%
Leigh Leopards
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Catalans Dragons a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Leigh Leopards are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Catalans Dragons counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Leigh Leopards carry a 26-point ELO rating advantage (1510 vs 1484). The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 7.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Catalans Dragons to Win @1.92
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Leigh Leopards -7 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R5W R6L R7W R8W R9L older → newer | 24.2 |
Leigh Leopards | R5L R6W R7L R8W R9W | 17.8 |
Avg Conceded
27.6
Catalans Dragons
20.4
Leigh Leopards
Avg Margin
-3.4
Catalans Dragons
-2.6
Leigh Leopards
Run Metres
1200
Catalans Dragons
1213
Leigh Leopards
Clean Breaks
5.0
Catalans Dragons
4.4
Leigh Leopards
ELO–Market Disagreement
Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1510 vs 1484), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.92).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.0