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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

LNER COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 12 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
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YRK

York Knights

1918
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 59%

AI Win Probability

59%Hull KRFavourite

York Knights

41%

Hull KR

59%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though York Knights are far from out of this at 41%. York Knights are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Hull KR counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 161-point ELO rating advantage (1661 vs 1500). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for York Knights. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 8.4 points with a combined total of 51.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.69

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -8.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
York Knights
L
L
L
L
L
0.0
Hull KR
W
W
W
W
L
20.4

Avg Conceded

0.0

York Knights

14.0

Hull KR

Avg Margin

0.0

York Knights

6.4

Hull KR

Run Metres

0

York Knights

1111

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

0.0

York Knights

4.6

Hull KR

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

YRK
1500Overall1661
HKR
ELO difference: -161 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

895Forwards777
Best: 1025YRK +118Best: 943
995Backs882
Best: 1049YRK +113Best: 1004
889Halves870
Best: 889YRK +19Best: 870
696Hooker910
HKR +214

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

YRK
Stat
HKR
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
0.0pts
Avg Score
20.4pts
0.0pts
Avg Conceded
14.0pts
0.0pts
Avg Margin
6.4pts
0.0m
Run Metres
1111.4m
0.0
Clean Breaks
4.6
0.0
Tackles
280.2
0.0
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Knights
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

59%

Hull KR predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 51 · Line: -8.4

0/4 match predictions correct