# York Knights v Hull KR — Super League Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 19 – 18 Hull KR

_York Knights pip Hull KR by a point._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 41% / Hull KR 59% · LNER Community Stadium · Fri, 13 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Sam Wood (17' 1st), Sam Wood (65' 1st), Scott Galeano (72') · Hull KR: Jai Whitbread (33'), Jai Whitbread (47'), Sauaso Sue (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 59% | Lost |
| York Knights | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 19–18 Hull KR in Super League Round 1 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nineteen minutes from time, Hull KR led 18-6 and looked home. Sauaso Sue's try in the 54th, converted by Rhyse Martin two minutes later, capped a burst that had brought them two tries and 12 unanswered points since half-time. York Knights had to find something fast, and they did.

Sam Wood's second try, in the 65th, started it. Liam Harris's conversion made it 12-18. Seven minutes later Scott Galeano crashed over, Harris slotted the extras again, and suddenly a game that had been running away from York Knights was level at 18-18. From there they found the point that mattered, and the final score read York Knights 19, Hull KR 18.

Wood finished with two tries, the first of them opening the scoring back in the 17th minute to give York Knights an early 4-0 lead. Hull KR spent the rest of the half clawing it back, and Jai Whitbread's try in the 33rd, converted by Martin, put them in front for the first time. Liam Harris's penalty goal on the stroke of half-time locked it at 6-6, and it stayed that way until the break.

The stat sheet tells you why this one stayed close right to the end rather than being settled by field position. Hull KR were the more dangerous side with ball in hand: 1,169 running metres to 1,059, four line breaks to York Knights' two, and seven offloads to four. That backline edge showed up in the scoring bursts either side of half-time, with Whitbread's second try in the 47th and Sue's in the 54th doing most of the damage.

But York Knights won the fight for the ball itself. Six errors against Hull KR's eleven, and just five penalties conceded against thirteen, meant York Knights got more cracks at it and more field position when it counted, backed up by 43 tackle busts to Hull KR's 32. In a one-point game, that discipline gap is the story.

It also lines up with what the sides brought in on paper. York Knights held the bigger edge in the backs, 995 to 882, and the forwards too, 895 to 777, and it was the pack's work in that final quarter that set up both closing tries. Hull KR's one clear advantage was at hooker, 910 to 696, and their form line backed it up: four wins from five coming in, averaging 20.4 points a game and conceding just 14. On the day, none of that stopped York Knights finding twenty points to their eighteen.

Alphr's model had Hull KR as the clear favourite, tipping them by 8.4 points on a combined total of 51 and giving them a 59 per cent chance of the win. Instead York Knights got there by a single point, and the model's pick missed on this one. It is a reminder of why these games get played out on the field at LNER Community Stadium rather than settled on paper: the numbers pointed one way, but a strong finish and a cleaner ball-handling performance from York Knights pointed the other, and that was the difference between 19 and 18.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,059 | Run metres | **1,169** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **43** | Tackle busts | 32 |
| 4 | Offloads | **7** |
| **6** | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 13 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 13 |
| 6 | Errors | 11 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

York Knights defied the model's 59% prediction for Hull KR, a notable result. The predicted margin of 8.4 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (59/100) — penalties York Knights 5 · Hull KR 13.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 59.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 59%, but York Knights stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 161 ELO points clear, 1661 to 1500. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for York Knights.

On paper York Knights shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 8.4, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 0.0pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.4pts |
| 0.0m | Run Metres | 1111.4m |
| 0.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 0.0 | Tackles | 280.2 |
| 0.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 0W–5L | 0.0 |
| Hull KR | R25 W · R26 L · R27 W · SF W · GF W | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Hull KR lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Hull KR | 38 – 6 | York Knights | Hull KR 81% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 9/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 17' 65' |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Scott Galeano | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 72' |
| 6 | Ata Hingano | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Liam Harris | HB | no games | 3/7g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Va'a | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jesse Dee | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Martin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Griffin | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | no games | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | no games | 13/10g (0·0·2·4·3·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | no games | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Brown | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | no games | 4/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Broadbent | INT | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 33' 47' |
| 17 | Karl Lawton | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1500 · Hull KR 1661 · ELO difference: 161 in favour of Hull KR

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | York Knights | Hull KR | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 895 (best 1025) | 777 (best 943) | York Knights +118 |
| Backs | 995 (best 1049) | 882 (best 1004) | York Knights +113 |
| Halves | 889 (best 889) | 870 (best 870) | York Knights +19 |
| Hooker | 696 | 910 | Hull KR +214 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)