# Warrington Wolves v St Helens — Super League Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 24 – 14 St Helens

_Warrington Wolves hunt down St Helens._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 39% / St Helens 61% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 14 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Toby King (12' 1st), Cai Taylor-Wray (16'), Albert Hopoate (27'), Josh Thewlis (65') · St Helens: Jack Welsby (59'), Tristan Sailor (62'), Kyle Feldt (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 61% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 24–14 St Helens in Super League Round 1 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen-nil at the break, and St Helens hadn't scored a point. That's the story of this one before the story even properly starts.

Warrington Wolves put it together in a hurry. Toby King opened the scoring in the 12th minute, Cai Taylor-Wray followed four minutes later, Albert Hopoate crossed in the 27th and Marc Sneyd added a penalty goal right on the stroke of half-time to make it 18-0. Four scoring plays, twenty-six minutes, and St Helens had nothing to show for it. Whatever plan Saints brought to Halliwell Jones Stadium, it didn't survive that stretch.

The composure required to protect an 18-point lead is a different test to building one, and Warrington were tested. St Helens hit back through Jack Welsby in the 59th minute and Tristan Sailor three minutes later, with Jackson Hastings' conversion bringing it to 18-10. Suddenly a laugher had a pulse. Warrington answered the only way that matters, through Josh Thewlis in the 65th, and Sneyd's conversion pushed it back to a two-score game at 24-10. Kyle Feldt's try in the 79th made the scoreboard look respectable for St Helens. It didn't change the outcome.

Final score: Warrington Wolves 24, St Helens 14. The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests, a team that did the basics better for long enough. Warrington ran for 1,162 metres to St Helens' 1,009, busted 31 tackles to 23, and made four line breaks to three. They also held the cleaner sheet with just 7 errors to St Helens' 9, and shaded the penalty count 6 to 7. The one column St Helens won clearly was offloads, 9 to 2, which tracks with a side scrambling to find quick ball once they were behind.

The positional numbers make this a stranger result than it looks on paper. St Helens came in rated stronger everywhere that's supposed to matter, forwards, backs, halves, and especially hooker, where the gap was enormous at 1,012 to 803. None of that showed up in the areas Warrington actually won the game: go-forward, line-break count, tackle busts. Form lines told a similarly lopsided story pre-match, Warrington arriving on a five-game losing run averaging just 11.2 points a game and shipping 28.8, against a St Helens side that had won two of their last five and was putting up 13.6 while conceding 20.8. On those numbers this wasn't supposed to be close, let alone a Warrington win.

Alphr's model had St Helens as 61% favourites, tipped them by 3.4 points on a combined total of 49. Instead Warrington won by 10 on a total of 38, both picks missing badly. Sometimes the underdog just turns up with a better opening half than anyone had them down for, and by the time St Helens found some rhythm through Welsby and Sailor, the hole was too deep to climb out of.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,162** | Run metres | 1,009 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 2 | Offloads | **9** |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 7 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 61% prediction for St Helens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 10 points. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 6 · St Helens 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 60.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 3 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 61%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 189 ELO points clear, 1574 to 1385. Form leans St Helens' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Warrington Wolves.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with St Helens, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has St Helens by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 11.2pts | Avg Score | 13.6pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -17.6pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 701.8m | Run Metres | 1040.8m |
| 1.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 252.0 | Tackles | 271.0 |
| 7.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 11.2 |
| St Helens | R25 L · R26 L · R27 W · EF W · SF L | 13.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | St Helens | 6 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 32 – 18 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | St Helens | 12 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 22 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 2 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.62 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.41 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.93/g (def 8th) | 1.03/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.52/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 8th) | 1.59/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.55/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.41/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 19 | 17 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 113m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 51 | 75 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 306m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 85.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 19 | 14 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 245m/g | 308m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Wingers 0.8/g (lg 0.96) -17% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.46) -20%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22% · Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.29/g (lg 0.29) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/8g | 25/48g | 44% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Albert Hopoate | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 27' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/19g | 19/39g | 38% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 5 | Joshua Smith | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 12/40g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 3/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 2/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 9/54g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Harrison | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/22g | 14/62g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/22g | 2/49g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/8g | 18% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | no games | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/10g | 22% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | no games | 10/10g (2·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 63% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | no games | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 4 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 3/4g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/38g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | George Delaney | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 2/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jonny Lomax | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/13g | 3/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Walmsley | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 2/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Host | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Owen Dagnall | INT | no games | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 55% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1385 · St Helens 1574 · ELO difference: 189 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — St Helens predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)