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Super League | Round 1

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • FRIDAY 13 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

2414
STH

St Helens

❌ Upset — model favoured St Helens at 61%

AI Win Probability

61%St HelensFavourite

Warrington Wolves

39%

St Helens

61%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Warrington Wolves are far from out of this at 39%. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Venue Advantage, but St Helens counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. St Helens carry a 189-point ELO rating advantage (1574 vs 1385). Recent form favours St Helens with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts St Helens by 3.4 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.65

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens -3.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
L
L
L
L
L
11.2
St Helens
W
W
L
L
L
13.6

Avg Conceded

28.8

Warrington Wolves

20.8

St Helens

Avg Margin

-17.6

Warrington Wolves

-7.2

St Helens

Run Metres

702

Warrington Wolves

1041

St Helens

Clean Breaks

1.6

Warrington Wolves

2.6

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 5-0
May 2025WAR 32 - 18 STH
Apr 2025WAR 14 - 12 STH
Feb 2024WAR 23 - 22 STH
Sep 2024WAR 16 - 2 STH
Jul 2024WAR 24 - 10 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1385Overall1574
STH
ELO difference: -189 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

820Forwards802
Best: 1043WAR +19Best: 953
891Backs875
Best: 1016WAR +16Best: 1009
762Halves732
Best: 762WAR +30Best: 732
803Hooker1012
STH +208

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
STH
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
11.2pts
Avg Score
13.6pts
28.8pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
-17.6pts
Avg Margin
-7.2pts
701.8m
Run Metres
1040.8m
1.6
Clean Breaks
2.6
252.0
Tackles
271.0
7.4
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

61%

St Helens predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: -3.4

0/4 match predictions correct