# Wakefield Trinity v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 16 – 18 Toulouse Olympique

_Toulouse Olympique hold off a gallant Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 77% / Toulouse Olympique 23% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 15 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Josh Rourke (26'), Cameron Scott (60'), Will Tate (75') · Toulouse Olympique: Olly Ashall-Bott (15' 1st), Paul Ulberg (32'), Romeo Tropis (68'), Olly Ashall-Bott (72' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 77% | Lost |
| Toulouse Olympique | 23% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 16–18 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 1 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Wakefield Trinity winning this by 12.8, backed at 77%. Toulouse Olympique had other ideas, going home 18-16 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Two points, three points off the model's total of 38 given the game landed on 34. The margin call, though, was nowhere near it.

Olly Ashall-Bott got the visitors moving in the 15th minute, and from there it was a genuine arm-wrestle. Wakefield hit back through Josh Rourke and a Max Jowitt conversion to lead 6-4, only for Paul Ulberg to put Toulouse back in front just before the half-hour. That 8-6 half-time scoreline was about as tight as the numbers suggest it should have been.

The second half is where the model's read really came apart. Cameron Scott had Wakefield back in front at 10-8 in the 60th minute, and for a moment the home form and the 77% looked like they might hold up. Then Toulouse scored three times in twelve minutes: a Cesar Rouge penalty goal to level it, Romeo Tropis to go 14-10, and Ashall-Bott's second try to make it 18-10. Will Tate's late try and Jowitt's conversion got Wakefield within two, but there was no time left to find it.

The stat sheet explains why the visitors were still standing at the end. Toulouse ran for 1,303 metres to Wakefield's 1,203, broke the line seven times to six, and racked up 33 tackle busts against 23. They were the tidier side too, just 9 errors to Wakefield's 14, and gave away only 4 penalties to Wakefield's 8. In a two-point game, that's the difference between winning the arm-wrestle and losing it.

What makes the result harder to square is the form line coming in. Wakefield had won three of their last five, averaging 32 points a game and conceding just 16.4, with an average margin of plus-15.6. Toulouse arrived with none of that: an average margin of minus-23.2 and 36.4 points conceded a game. On paper, that gap was enormous, and it's exactly why the model leaned so hard on Wakefield.

The positional ratings offered a hint the model may have underweighted. Toulouse held a narrow edge in forwards, 855 to 841, and in halves, 828 to 810. Wakefield's advantage was out back, 969 to 902. On the day it was Toulouse's forward platform and halves control that showed up in the collision stats, not Wakefield's backline superiority.

Wakefield's attack wasn't the problem. Eleven offloads to Toulouse's five suggests plenty of ball movement and support play, and Rourke, Scott and Tate all crossed. The errors and the penalty count are where it leaked away, both areas Toulouse dominated clearly.

For the model, it's a clean miss on both counts, margin and winner. The total wasn't far off, within four points, but predicting the total right while getting the winner wrong is cold comfort. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one goes down as a miss.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1,203 | Run metres | **1,303** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| **11** | Offloads | 5 |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 1/5 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 14 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Toulouse Olympique defied the model's 77% prediction for Wakefield Trinity, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 2 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 34, within 4 points. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (49/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 8 · Toulouse Olympique 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 77.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 13 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 77% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 63 ELO points clear, 1526 to 1464. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Toulouse Olympique.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 38. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 36.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | -23.2pts |
| 1223.4m | Run Metres | 584.4m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 1.2 |
| 299.0 | Tackles | 140.0 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R24 W · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · EF L | 32.0 |
| Toulouse Olympique | 0W–5L | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Toulouse Olympique | 18 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 59% ✓ |
| 2022 | — | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 38 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R12 | Toulouse Olympique | 20 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2022 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 18 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.64/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 5th) | — |
| Middle | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) | — |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) | — |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.46) +85% · Wingers 1.48/g (lg 0.96) +54% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.23) +26% · Wingers 1.11/g (lg 0.96) +16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/12g | 38% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Tate | WG | no games | 5/6g (2·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 32% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Joshua Rourke | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Smith | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Williams | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 15' 72' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 68' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Cator | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Bretherton | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1526 · Toulouse Olympique 1464 · ELO difference: 63 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)