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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SATURDAY 14 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1618
TO

Toulouse Olympique

❌ Upset — model favoured Wakefield Trinity at 77%

AI Win Probability

77%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

77%

Toulouse Olympique

23%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wakefield Trinity carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1464). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 12.8 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.29

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +12.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
W
W
W
L
L
32.0
Toulouse Olympique
L
L
L
L
L
13.2

Avg Conceded

16.4

Wakefield Trinity

36.4

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

15.6

Wakefield Trinity

-23.2

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1223

Wakefield Trinity

584

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

6.0

Wakefield Trinity

1.2

Toulouse Olympique

H2H History (Last 4)Tied 2-2
May 2026WAK 22 - 18 TO
Feb 2022WAK 26 - 38 TO
May 2022WAK 14 - 20 TO
Apr 2022WAK 18 - 6 TO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1526Overall1464
TO
ELO difference: +63 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

841Forwards855
Best: 1030TO +14Best: 1000
969Backs902
Best: 1156WAK +67Best: 1000
810Halves828
Best: 810TO +18Best: 828
1000Hooker1000
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
TO
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
32.0pts
Avg Score
13.2pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
36.4pts
15.6pts
Avg Margin
-23.2pts
1223.4m
Run Metres
584.4m
6.0
Clean Breaks
1.2
299.0
Tackles
140.0
9.8
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Olympique
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

77%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +12.8

1/4 match predictions correct