# Leigh Leopards v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 26 – 14 Leeds Rhinos

_Leigh Leopards outpace Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 10 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 75% / Leeds Rhinos 25% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sat, 14 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Innes Senior (15' 1st), Edwin Ipape (24'), Jack Hughes (40'), Matt Davis (46'), Lachlan Lam (66') · Leeds Rhinos: Cooper Jenkins (51'), Brodie Croft (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 75% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.5 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 26–14 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 1 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards favourites by 6.5 and a combined total of 39. The final tally: Leigh Leopards 26, Leeds Rhinos 14, a 12-point margin off a 40-point total. Close enough on the total to call it, but the gap between the sides ran nearly double the predicted margin. Five tries to two will do that.

The read on the hooker battle looks like the headline number in hindsight. Leigh had Edwin Ipape rated at 929 against Leeds' 723, and Ipape went and scored a try himself in the 24th minute to push it to 8-2. Add the 923 to 889 edge in the halves and Leigh's spine did exactly what the ratings suggested it would.

Leigh started as they meant to go on. Chris Hankinson opened the scoring with a penalty goal in the 5th, then Innes Senior crossed in the 15th and Ipape followed it up in the 24th, with Adam Cook's conversion making it 10-2. That was the half-time score, and it already had the shape of a game going to the stronger forward pack, 921 to 757 in Leigh's favour on the pre-match ratings.

Jack Hughes made it 14-2 right on the stroke of halftime, and Matt Davis extended it to 18-2 in the 46th. By the hour mark Leigh led 20-2 and the contest looked settled. Leeds Rhinos finally found the line through Cooper Jenkins in the 51st and Hankinson's boot made it 20-8, a stretch of points that showed some fight but never threatened the outcome. Lachlan Lam's try in the 66th, converted by Cook, put it beyond doubt at 26-8. Brodie Croft's late try in the 78th just tidied up the final margin.

Here's where the read gets interesting: the raw stat sheet doesn't scream Leigh at all. Leeds Rhinos out-carried them, 1,359 run metres to 1,228. They out-busted them on tackles too, 44 to 38, and offloaded the ball fourteen times to Leigh's three. On paper that's a side doing plenty of the unglamorous work.

None of it translated to points, because Leigh were the side that looked after the football when it mattered. Leigh coughed up the ball 8 times to Leeds' 9, a modest gap but a real one, and it meant more finishing chances with less risk. Five tries from three line breaks each is a fair return on discipline, not just metres.

Leeds Rhinos came in on the back of a rough trot, two wins from their last five against Leigh's four, and an average margin of just 6.8 points to Leigh's 11.6. Their form line, WWLLL, told a story of a side sliding the wrong way, and today's shape, plenty of ball but not enough control, tracked with that.

For the model, this was about as clean as it gets: Leigh picked to win, and they won by more than tipped. The total landed within a point. Two picks, two hits, and the underlying story, a stronger spine and pack cashing in cleaner ball against a side that ran hard but leaked too much, backs up why the numbers said what they said before a ball was kicked.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,228 | Run metres | **1,359** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 38 | Tackle busts | **44** |
| 3 | Offloads | **14** |
| **8** | Errors | 9 |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 8 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (25/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 8 · Leeds Rhinos 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 7 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 75% to see off Leeds Rhinos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 25 ELO points clear, 1610 to 1585. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Leeds Rhinos.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 6.5, with the two sides combining for about 39. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Conceded | 10.8pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 1302.4m | Run Metres | 1234.6m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 284.8 | Tackles | 281.6 |
| 7.0 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · EF W · SF L | 24.8 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · EF L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 16 – 20 | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos 64% ✗ |
| 2025 | R21 | Leigh Leopards | 14 – 22 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Leeds Rhinos | 48 – 30 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R15 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 10 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 2nd there (0.57 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (0.72 conceded/game). Key man: Newman, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.24/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.68/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.55/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th) | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 6th) | 1.21/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 10 | 15 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 144m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 61 · 36 | 52 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 597m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 19.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 84.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 13 | 19 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 367m/g | 328m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0% · Centres 0.39/g (lg 0.46) -15% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.18) +17% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.23) -13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | no games | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·3·1·1·0) | 5/5g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/17g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Ofahengaue | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 15 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 46' |
| 16 | Andrew Badrock | INT | no games | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | no games | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Christopher Hankinson | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 10/13g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 6 | George Brown | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Holroyd | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | INT | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Presley Cassell | INT | no games | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Littlewood | INT | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Nicholson-watton | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1610 · Leeds Rhinos 1585 · ELO difference: 25 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r1-leigh-leopards-v-leeds-rhinos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)