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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

LEIGH SPORTS VILLAGE STADIUM • FRIDAY 13 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEI

Leigh Leopards

2614
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

75%

Leeds Rhinos

25%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leeds Rhinos. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Leigh Leopards carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1610 vs 1585). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 6.5 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.33

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +6.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
W
W
W
W
L
24.8
Leeds Rhinos
W
W
L
L
L
17.6

Avg Conceded

13.2

Leigh Leopards

10.8

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

11.6

Leigh Leopards

6.8

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1302

Leigh Leopards

1235

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

5.6

Leigh Leopards

3.6

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
Aug 2025LEI 14 - 22 LEE
Jun 2025LEI 30 - 48 LEE
Feb 2024LEI 16 - 22 LEE
Jun 2024LEI 10 - 18 LEE
Aug 2023LEI 13 - 6 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1610Overall1585
LEE
ELO difference: +25 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

921Forwards757
Best: 1101LEI +164Best: 935
824Backs885
Best: 926LEE +61Best: 1027
923Halves889
Best: 923LEI +34Best: 889
929Hooker723
LEI +206

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
LEE
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
13.2pts
Avg Conceded
10.8pts
11.6pts
Avg Margin
6.8pts
1302.4m
Run Metres
1234.6m
5.6
Clean Breaks
3.6
284.8
Tackles
281.6
7.0
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

75%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +6.5

4/4 match predictions correct