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Super League | Round 1

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MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 14 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUL

Hull

2720
BRD

Bradford Bulls

✅ Model correct — backed Hull at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%HullFavourite

Hull

78%

Bradford Bulls

22%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bradford Bulls. The model sees Hull ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Bradford Bulls carry a 23-point ELO rating advantage (1500 vs 1477). Recent form favours Hull with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts Hull by 5.3 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull +5.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
W
L
L
L
L
14.0
Bradford Bulls
L
L
L
L
L
0.0

Avg Conceded

19.2

Hull

0.0

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

-5.2

Hull

0.0

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

890

Hull

0

Bradford Bulls

Clean Breaks

2.4

Hull

0.0

Bradford Bulls

H2H History (Last 1)Bradford Bulls lead 1-0
May 2026HUL 14 - 16 BRD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Bradford Bulls hold the ELO advantage (1500 vs 1477), but the market favours Hull (@1.27).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1477Overall1500
BRD
ELO difference: -23 in favour of Bradford Bulls

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

745Forwards805
Best: 913BRD +60Best: 1000
1032Backs819
Best: 1158HUL +213Best: 899
887Halves821
Best: 887HUL +66Best: 821
651Hooker651
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
BRD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
14.0pts
Avg Score
0.0pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
0.0pts
-5.2pts
Avg Margin
0.0pts
890.2m
Run Metres
0.0m
2.4
Clean Breaks
0.0
270.6
Tackles
0.0
9.4
Errors
0.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Bulls
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Bulls
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

78%

Hull predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +5.3

3/4 match predictions correct