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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

Thu 12 Feb11:00am
YRKYRK
HKRHKR
Fri 13 Feb11:00am
CATCAT
HUDHUD
Fri 13 Feb11:00am
WARWAR
STHSTH
Fri 13 Feb11:00am
LEILEI
LEELEE
Sat 14 Feb11:00am
HULHUL
BRDBRD
Sat 14 Feb11:00am
WAKWAK
TOTO
Sun 15 Feb11:00am
CASCAS
WIGWIG
HUL
Hull FC
VS
BRD
Bradford Bulls
MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 14 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT

Win Probability

Full Time
27
20

Scoring Breakdown

FCBulls
4Tries3
4/4Conversions2/3
1/1Penalty Goals2/2
1Field Goals0
8Penalties Conceded11
5Errors13
5Line Breaks5
30Tackle Busts49
5Offloads13
1220Metres1192

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

FC had a slight +3 penalty edge, but the overall balance was acceptable. No significant concerns.

PENS8 – 11
ERR5 – 13

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull FC by 5.3 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Hull FC firmly in control (99%)
HUL27
99%80'1%
20BRA
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Bradford Bulls momentumMomentum +84Hull FC momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

78%Hull FCFavourite

Hull FC

78%

Bradford Bulls

22%

✨

AI Match Overview

Hull FC are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bradford Bulls. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Bradford Bulls with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull FC. The margin model predicts Hull FC by 5.3 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull FC to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Hull FC +5.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Hull FC 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull FC
W
L
L
L
L
21.2
Bradford Bulls
W
W
L
L
L
26.8

Avg Conceded

21.4

Hull FC

15.5

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

15.0

Hull FC

2.8

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

1637

Hull FC

1307

Bradford Bulls

Line Breaks

4.7

Hull FC

5.8

Bradford Bulls

H2H History (Last 1)Bradford Bulls lead 1-0
May 2026HUL 14 - 16 BRD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Bradford Bulls hold the ELO advantage (1529 vs 1518), but the market favours Hull FC (@1.27).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1518Overall1529
BRD
ELO difference: -11 in favour of Bradford Bulls

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

963Forwards980
BRD +17
1072Backs1028
HUL +44
982Halves1038
BRD +56
989Hooker979
HUL +11

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
BRD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.9
21.2pts
Avg Score
26.8pts
21.4pts
Avg Conceded
15.5pts
15.0pts
Avg Margin
2.8pts
1637.4m
Run Metres
1307.0m
4.7
Line Breaks
5.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulls
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulls
3
Backline Quality10.0%
FC
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
FC
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
FC
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

78%

Hull FC predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +5.3

3/4 match predictions correct