# Catalans Dragons v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 26 – 10 Huddersfield Giants

_Catalans Dragons torch Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 14 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 60% / Huddersfield Giants 40% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 14 Feb, 05:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Ben Condon (16' 1st), Charlie Staines (31'), Tommy Makinson (61'), Solomona Faataape (73') · Huddersfield Giants: Sam Halsall (37'), George Flanagan (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 60% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 26–10 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 1 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Huddersfield Giants winning by 2.5 points. Catalans Dragons won by 16. That's the kind of margin miss that sends you back to check the underlying read. In this case the read was fine. The margin call just wasn't.

The win probability had Catalans Dragons at 60%, and that part landed. The total score prediction of 34 was close too, with the actual sitting at 36. One from two, and the miss was the expensive one.

Where it broke down starts with the scoreboard at half-time: Catalans Dragons 14, Huddersfield Giants 4. Ben Condon opened the scoring in the 16th minute, Toby Sexton converted, then added a penalty goal in the 28th. Charlie Staines crossed in the 31st to make it 12-0 before Sexton's conversion pushed it to 14. Huddersfield Giants got one back through Sam Halsall in the 37th, but the gap was already set.

The pre-match ratings had Huddersfield Giants stronger up front, 876 to 851, and stronger in the halves by a wide margin, 1000 to 848. On paper that's the sort of edge that controls a match. It didn't show up in the metres. Catalans Dragons ran for 1,440 to Huddersfield Giants' 833, more than 600 metres clear. That's the gap where the Huddersfield Giants forward edge should have told, and didn't.

The backs rating was the number that actually predicted the game. Catalans Dragons at 1039 to Huddersfield Giants' 784 is the biggest gap on the sheet, and it played out that way on the field: five line breaks to two, 46 tackle busts to 25, nine offloads to six. Tommy Makinson and Solomona Faataape both crossed in the closing stages, in the 61st and 73rd minutes, to put the game out of reach after Huddersfield Giants had clawed back to 20-10 through George Flanagan's try and conversion in the 66th and 67th.

Form lines told part of the story too. Catalans Dragons came in on four wins from five, Huddersfield Giants on two, and the average margins summed it up well before kick-off: plus 2.2 for Catalans Dragons against minus 11.8 for Huddersfield Giants. The ball control and discipline numbers on the day matched that gap. Catalans Dragons coughed it up eight times to eleven, and conceded three penalties to Huddersfield Giants' four. Neither figure looks like much on its own, but stacked with the metres and the busts, it's a side that had the ball more and did more with it when they had it.

Huddersfield Giants weren't nothing. Across their last five games they'd averaged far more tackles than Catalans Dragons, 292 to 198, the kind of number that comes from spending a lot of time in your own end. Their two tries on the night came from Sam Halsall and George Flanagan, with Flanagan's own conversion keeping it at 20-10 for a spell in the second half. But keeping it respectable for a spell isn't the same as being competitive for four quarters, and the gap in strike power out wide was always going to be the harder thing to defend against.

So the model gets credit for picking the winner and getting close on the total.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,440** | Run metres | 833 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **46** | Tackle busts | 25 |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| **8** | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 8 | Errors | 11 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 34 was close to the actual 36, within 2 points. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (16/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 3 · Huddersfield Giants 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Huddersfield Giants by 3 · Predicted total: 34

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 60%, but Huddersfield Giants stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 42 ELO points clear, 1444 to 1401. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Huddersfield Giants.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Huddersfield Giants by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 34. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 12.6pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 740.0m | Run Metres | 853.0m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 2.4 |
| 198.0 | Tackles | 292.0 |
| 6.2 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R23 W · R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 20.2 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R23 W · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 L | 12.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Huddersfield Giants | 42 – 20 | Catalans Dragons | Catalans Dragons 53% ✗ |
| 2025 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Catalans Dragons | 32 – 0 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 38 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 23 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (2.04 conceded/game). Key man: Aispuro-bichet, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.96 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 8th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.19/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.48/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.93/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 8th) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.56/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 7th) | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 26 | 4 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 38m/g | 68m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 89.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 56 | 29 · 66 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 353m/g | 359m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.3/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 18 | 7 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Centres 0.64/g (lg 0.46) +39% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 31' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·1) | 9/10g | 6/14g | 44% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 73' |
| 5 | Joshua Simm | WG | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Costa | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Benjamin Condon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 16' |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 7/50g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Chris Satae | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Jacob Gagai | WG | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 43% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Hewitt | CE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Taane Milne | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Halsall | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 37' |
| 6 | Olly Russell | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Oliver Russell | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 4/12g | 0/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Tui Lolohea | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Patolo | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Tristan Powell | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Zac Woolford | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Rushton | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew English | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | George King | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1444 · Huddersfield Giants 1401 · ELO difference: 42 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 34 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)