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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • FRIDAY 13 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

2610
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed Catalans Dragons at 60%

AI Win Probability

60%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

60%

Huddersfield Giants

40%

AI Match Overview

Catalans Dragons hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Huddersfield Giants are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Catalans Dragons carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1444 vs 1401). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Huddersfield Giants by 2.5 points with a combined total of 34.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @1.66

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants -2.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
W
W
W
W
L
20.2
Huddersfield Giants
W
W
L
L
L
12.6

Avg Conceded

18.0

Catalans Dragons

24.4

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

2.2

Catalans Dragons

-11.8

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

740

Catalans Dragons

853

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

2.4

Catalans Dragons

2.4

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 4-1
Aug 2025CAT 6 - 18 HUD
Jun 2025CAT 32 - 0 HUD
Apr 2025CAT 38 - 18 HUD
Aug 2024CAT 23 - 22 HUD
Jun 2024CAT 22 - 18 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1444Overall1401
HUD
ELO difference: +42 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

851Forwards876
Best: 1000HUD +26Best: 1019
1039Backs784
Best: 1074CAT +255Best: 868
848Halves1000
Best: 848HUD +152Best: 1000
784Hooker831
HUD +48

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
HUD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.2pts
Avg Score
12.6pts
18.0pts
Avg Conceded
24.4pts
2.2pts
Avg Margin
-11.8pts
740.0m
Run Metres
853.0m
2.4
Clean Breaks
2.4
198.0
Tackles
292.0
6.2
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

60%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 34 · Line: -2.5

2/4 match predictions correct