# Castleford Tigers v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 16 – 26 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors march past Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 32% / Wigan Warriors 68% · The OneBore Stadium · Mon, 16 Feb, 02:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Liam Hood (7' 1st), Mikaele Ravalawa (68'), George Lawler (79') · Wigan Warriors: Liam Marshall (32'), Bevan French (37'), Zach Eckersley (41'), Zach Eckersley (59'), Jake Wardle (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 68% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.5 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 16–26 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 1 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Wigan Warriors winning by 14.5 points with a combined total of 44. What actually happened was closer than that on the margin (26-16, a 10-point gap) but almost bang on the total, 42 points in the end. Call it a job half done: right team, right shape of the game, wrong idea of how tight it would stay.

Castleford Tigers were the ones making a fist of it early. Liam Hood crossed inside seven minutes and Tom Weaver's conversion had the home side up 6-0 by the eighth. Given Castleford came in off a 1-4 form line and an average concede of 38.8 points a game, that start looked like a genuine upset brewing.

It didn't last. Wigan hit back through Liam Marshall in the 32nd minute, then Bevan French five minutes later, and Adam Keighran's conversion had them 10-6 up at the break. That's the version of the scoreboard the model would have recognised, Wigan's superior forward pack (890 to 789 in the ratings) and their form line, four wins from five against Castleford's one, starting to assert itself.

The third quarter is where the contest actually died. Zach Eckersley scored either side of the hour, in the 41st and 59th minutes, and Jake Wardle added another in the 64th. With Keighran's boot doing its job, Wigan turned a four-point half-time lead into a 20-point buffer, 6-26, inside about 25 minutes of game time. Castleford's tries from Mikaele Ravalawa in the 68th and George Lawler right at the death just tidied up the final margin.

The stat sheet tells you exactly how that gap opened up. Wigan ran for 1,364 metres to Castleford's 1,001 and offloaded 13 times to just 4, the kind of ball-in-hand output you'd expect from a backline and halves pairing that had been averaging over 1,200 metres and 4.2 clean breaks a game coming in. Castleford actually broke the line five times themselves and racked up 43 tackle busts to Wigan's 23, so there was plenty of individual damage done. It just didn't turn into points at the same rate.

Discipline and ball control were the small mercies for the home side. Castleford conceded 10 errors to Wigan's 14 and gave away one fewer penalty, 8 to 9. Wigan's own backline and halves ratings (787 and 836) were both well below Castleford's (948 and 950), and that shows up in the shape of the game: Wigan won it with go-forward and offloads rather than any real edge in the backs.

As for the read, the model backed Wigan Warriors at 68 percent and got the winner right, with the total prediction of 44 landing within two points of the actual 42. Where it came up short was the margin, tipping a 14.5-point win rather than the 10-point one that actually eventuated. A fair result matched to a fair read, with a bit of the gap left for Castleford's late tries to close.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,001 | Run metres | **1,364** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **7** |
| **43** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 4 | Offloads | **13** |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 14 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 14.5 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (25/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 8 · Wigan Warriors 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 15 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 68% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 316 ELO points clear, 1656 to 1339. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 14.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 13.2pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 38.8pts | Avg Conceded | 9.2pts |
| -25.6pts | Avg Margin | 16.0pts |
| 593.6m | Run Metres | 1202.4m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 209.8 | Tackles | 313.6 |
| 7.2 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R23 L · R24 L · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L | 13.2 |
| Wigan Warriors | R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · SF W · GF L | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 14 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors 79% ✗ |
| 2025 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 62 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Castleford Tigers | 20 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.74 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (0.76 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.41 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (2.07 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.74/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.07/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.41/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 29 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 100m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 84 | 87 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 340m/g | 506m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 17 | 15 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 209m/g | 346m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.14) -14% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.29) -28% · Halfbacks 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.05) +140% · Wingers 1.44/g (lg 0.96) +50% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.46) +48%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Taaffe | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 68' |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | no games | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Singleton | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Westerman | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Christopher Atkin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Hall | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 41' 59' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·3·1·2·0·0·0) | 14/14g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 6/9g | 0/0g | 56% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Sam Walters | PR | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ethan Havard | INT | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Oliver Partington | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Farrimond | INT | no games | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·2·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1339 · Wigan Warriors 1656 · ELO difference: 316 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)