Castleford Tigers
Wigan Warriors
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
32%
Wigan Warriors
68%
AI Match Overview
Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 316-point ELO rating advantage (1656 vs 1339). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 14.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wigan Warriors to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Wigan Warriors -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wigan Warriors 13-24 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | W L L L L | 13.2 |
Wigan Warriors | W W W W L | 25.2 |
Avg Conceded
38.8
Castleford Tigers
9.2
Wigan Warriors
Avg Margin
-25.6
Castleford Tigers
16.0
Wigan Warriors
Run Metres
594
Castleford Tigers
1202
Wigan Warriors
Clean Breaks
2.4
Castleford Tigers
4.2
Wigan Warriors
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -14.5