# Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Grand Final 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Grand Final build-up

Warrington Wolves meet Wakefield Trinity in the 2026 Super League Grand Final at Old Trafford, and it is the first decider since 2011 without Wigan or Leeds involved.

Warrington finished third, beat Hull KR 35-12 in the eliminator, then scraped past Leeds Rhinos 14-12 at Headingley in a semi-final decided by a single second-half penalty goal. Ewan Irwin kicked it after James McDonnell was penalised for an escort on George Williams. Leeds coach Brad Arthur was not impressed: "It is a soft penalty." Jake Connor had one last shot to level it, a penalty attempt from about 62 metres with seconds left. It fell short.

Wakefield finished fourth, saw off Leigh Leopards 26-16 in the eliminator, then travelled to Wigan Warriors, the League Leaders' Shield winners and Challenge Cup holders, and won 33-6. That ended Wigan's 16-game unbeaten run and their bid for a fourth straight grand final. Wakefield scored three tries in about seven minutes while Adam Keighran sat in the bin for a tip tackle, Tom Johnstone scoring twice and Mason Lino landing a drop goal. Daryl Powell called it plainly: "The performance from the boys tonight was exceptional."

The history sits heavily on one side. Warrington are in their fifth grand final and have lost all four, three of them to Wigan, in 2013, 2016 and 2018. Their last league title came in 1955. Wakefield have never been in a grand final at all. Their only titles came in 1966-67 and 1967-68. A new name goes on the trophy for the second year running, after Hull KR won it for the first time in 2025.

There's a connecting thread between the clubs too. Daryl Powell coached Warrington from 2022 until July 2023, leaving the day after a 42-6 loss at Wakefield. He's now the man who has taken Wakefield from bottom of the table and relegation in 2023, through a Championship treble in 2024, to a sixth-placed finish back in Super League in 2025, and now to Old Trafford.

Head to head since 2015 it's close: Warrington have 13 wins to Wakefield's 10 from 23 meetings. This season it's split too. Warrington won 27-16 at home in round 3, Wakefield hit back 25-18 at home in round 26, with Lino kicking a drop goal in that game as well.

Warrington go into the decider having won 22 of 29 games across the season and finals, scoring 775 points and conceding 489. Wakefield have won 21 of 29, scoring 768 and conceding 508.

Team news is thin until squads are named, but one absence is confirmed. Wakefield prop Emre Guler misses out, serving a three-match ban for punching in the eliminator. On the Warrington side, this is George Williams' last game for the club before he joins the Dolphins in the NRL for 2027, their captain and England's World Cup captain, playing his final match for the Wolves. Ben Currie, 15 years at the club and missing out on Warrington's previous grand finals through injury, gets his chance this time: "third time lucky," he said. Warrington coach Sam Burgess kept it simple: "We're there now, so we've got to go and make the most of it."

There's a quieter moment worth knowing about too. Sir Kevin Sinfield will deliver the match ball to his son Jack's Wakefield side, the finale of his "7 in 7" motor neurone disease challenge.

Kick-off is 6pm UK time on Saturday 3 October at Old Trafford, which is 4am AEDT on Sunday 4 October in Australia, shown live on Sky Sports. Warrington fans had already bought 12,500 tickets by the Sunday before the game. Both clubs name their 21-man squads in the week of the match, and Alphr's prediction model will publish its call once those squads are confirmed.

## Prediction coming soon

Our Super League model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data.

### Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity
Sun, 04 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Old Trafford · Grand Final

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 25 – 18 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2026 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 27 – 16 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 40 – 10 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R4 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 30 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 42 – 6 | Warrington Wolves |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.76 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 2nd there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.34 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 7th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Scott, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.62/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.48/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.03/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.76/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.66/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.21/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 7th) | 1.34/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 13 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 122m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 47 | 69 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 441m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 84.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 21 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 345m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15% · Centres 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.15) +7% · Centres 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 11:18 UTC