# Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Grand Final 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 10 – 23 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity outlast Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 0 – 19 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 47% / Wakefield Trinity 53% · Old Trafford · Sun, 04 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Arron Lindop (46' Tipped ⚡), Arron Lindop (71' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Cameron Scott (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Isaiah Vagana (24' Tipped ⚡), Jazz Tevaga (35'), Tom Johnstone (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 53% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Grand Final 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 Oct 2026, 11:52 am · Last updated: 1 Nov 2026, 11:19 am_

Warrington Wolves 10–23 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Grand Final at Old Trafford. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity defeated Warrington Wolves 23–10 at Old Trafford, a result Alphr’s model had favoured at 53% probability. The pre-match read gave Wakefield an ELO of 1752 against Warrington’s 1705 and expected them to win by 2.7. The actual 13-point margin stretched that prediction, yet the model still called the winner and the over 30.5 total, finishing 8/17 on the match with Wakefield covering the 0.5-point line.

Trinity’s performance on the field reflected their strong form coming into the match, winning all five of their last five games. They averaged 26.2 points per game and conceded 12 points across those matches. Warrington’s recent run was also good, with four wins from five, but their average margin was smaller, 6.4 points compared to Trinity’s 14.2.

The first half was all Wakefield Trinity. Cameron Scott opened the scoring at the 10-minute mark, converted by Max Jowitt for a 6-0 lead. Isaiah Vagana crossed 14 minutes later, followed by Jazz Tevaga in the 35th minute. Jowitt converted both, pushing the score to 18–0. A Jack Sinfield drop goal in the 37th minute extended Trinity’s lead to 19–0 at half-time. Warrington struggled to find any momentum, failing to get on the scoreboard.

Possession and territory were evenly split across the match, 50% for Warrington and 50% for Wakefield, with territory favouring Trinity slightly at 53%. Both teams had a 90% completion rate, but Trinity made better use of their opportunities. They out-ran Warrington 1,511 metres to 1,342. This translated to a better metres per run, 7.5 for Wakefield versus Warrington's 6.0.

Trinity's offensive edge was clear in the line breaks, with 5 to Warrington’s 2. They also busted more tackles, 36 to 28. Arron Lindop scored Warrington’s first try in the 46th minute, converted by Ewan Irwin. That brought the score to 19–6. Trinity responded quickly, with Tom Johnstone crossing in the 58th minute, stretching their lead to 23–6. Lindop scored a second try for Warrington in the 71st minute, but the gap remained significant.

The model’s positional ratings highlighted some of these differences. Wakefield’s forwards were rated higher at 845 compared to Warrington’s 786, which aligns with their superior run metres. Trinity’s hooker rating was also higher at 893 against Warrington’s 630. While Warrington’s halves were rated significantly higher at 1124 compared to Trinity’s 600, this advantage did not translate into points.

Defensively, Wakefield Trinity was more efficient, recording a tackle efficiency of 92.6% to Warrington’s 91.2%. This meant fewer missed tackles for Trinity, 28 compared to Warrington’s 36. Both sides had 7 errors. Warrington conceded 3 penalties to Trinity’s 5, but this discipline did not shift the final result. The model’s call for the total points to be over 30.5 was correct, with 33 points scored.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 47% | Territory | **53%** |
| 90% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| 1,342 | Run metres | **1,511** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| **12** | Offloads | 10 |
| 91.2% | Tackle efficiency | **92.6%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| 7 | Errors | 7 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 6.0 | Metres per run | **7.5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/2 | Conversions | 3/4 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 7 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. The model went 8/17 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 0.5-point line. The over 30.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Wakefield Trinity 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 53.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity +0.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 30.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 3

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Warrington Wolves and Wakefield Trinity. The model can't split them, landing on Wakefield Trinity at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 47 ELO points clear, 1752 to 1705. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Warrington Wolves.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 26.2pts |
| 15.4pts | Avg Conceded | 12.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | 14.2pts |
| 1413.8m | Run Metres | 1456.8m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 314.0 | Tackles | 301.6 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R25 W · R26 L · R27 W · EF W · SF W | 21.8 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · EF W · SF W | 26.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 25 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 27 – 16 | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 40 – 10 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 30 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 42 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.76 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 2nd there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.34 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 7th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Scott, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.62/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.48/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.03/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.76/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.66/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.21/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 7th) | 1.34/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 13 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 122m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 47 | 69 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 441m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 84.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 21 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 345m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15% · Centres 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.15) +7% · Centres 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Old Trafford. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 15 in 26g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 71' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.75 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 18 | Cai Taylor-Wray | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 19 | Ewan Irwin | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 20 | Joshua Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 21 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 11 in 27g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 4% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 18 in 16g | 11/10g (2·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·1·2) | 10/16g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 7 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 14 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 23g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 25g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Jay Pitts | INT | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 18 | Jake Trueman | INT | 4 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 19 | Jayden Myers | INT | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 20 | Max Jowitt | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 21 | Mike McMeeken | INT | 2 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1705 · Wakefield Trinity 1752 · ELO difference: 47 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 36.7% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 20.9% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 20.7% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 5.5% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 3.6% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Rest Days | 3.4% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-01 00:19 UTC (latest tip update)