# Warrington Wolves v Hull KR — Super League Play-off Eliminators 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 35 – 12 Hull KR

_Warrington Wolves run down Hull KR._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 60% / Hull KR 40% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 20 Sept, 02:30 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Ben Currie (3' 1st), Matty Ashton (38'), Matty Ashton (42'), Matty Ashton (59'), Albert Hopoate (63' Tipped ⚡), Toby King (78') · Hull KR: Joe Burgess (35' Tipped ⚡), Dean Hadley (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 60% | Won |
| Hull KR | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Play-off Eliminators 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Sept 2026, 09:49 pm · Last updated: 1 Nov 2026, 11:19 am_

Warrington Wolves 35–12 Hull KR in Super League Play-off Eliminators at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves defeated Hull KR 35–12 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. The scoreline suggests a straightforward win, but the numbers reveal a more nuanced story. Warrington's control of possession at 57% and territory at 58% was pivotal. Both teams missed 23 tackles early on, but Warrington capitalised better on their opportunities, which shifted the game in their favour.

The match started with Ben Currie scoring in the third minute for Warrington. Hull KR responded with a try from Joe Burgess in the 35th minute, narrowing the gap. However, Matty Ashton scored just before half-time, giving Warrington a 12–6 lead at the break. This try was crucial, as Warrington maintained their momentum into the second half.

In the second half, Warrington's attack was relentless. Matty Ashton added two more tries to complete his hat-trick. Albert Hopoate and Toby King also scored, while George Williams added a drop goal in the 74th minute. Warrington's total of 1,683 run metres compared to Hull KR's 1,127 highlighted their dominance. They also led in line breaks, 8 to 3, showcasing their attacking prowess. Ewan Irwin was reliable with the boot, converting five times.

Hull KR had brief moments of hope, particularly when Dean Hadley scored in the 52nd minute. They managed more offloads, 7 to Warrington’s 3, but their defence struggled with 34 missed tackles. With completion rates close (Warrington at 80%, Hull KR at 75%), the difference lay in Warrington's ability to minimise errors when it mattered.

Warrington's recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, contrasted with Hull KR's single win in the same period. Pre-match predictions gave Warrington a 60% chance of winning, expecting a narrow 1.3-point margin. Instead, they secured a 23-point victory, demonstrating their superior form.

The predicted total score of 48 was nearly accurate, with the actual score totalling 47. Warrington's backline, rated 834, outperformed Hull KR’s 669. Despite Hull KR's stronger hooker, Warrington's halves and forwards provided the necessary balance and attack to dominate.

In the end, Warrington Wolves showcased their strength in a match that had moments of competition but was largely a testament to their power and precision. Hull KR had their chances but couldn't match Warrington's relentless pace and efficiency.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **58%** | Territory | 42% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,683** | Run metres | 1,127 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 3 | Offloads | **7** |
| **92.0%** | Tackle efficiency | 90.9% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **7.6** | Metres per run | 6.9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/6 | Conversions | 2/2 |
| 1/1 | Penalty Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 0 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 23 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 47, within 1 points. Warrington Wolves led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 23. The model went 5/17 on this match. The over 36.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (10/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 7 · Hull KR 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 60.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR +5.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 36.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 1 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 60%, but Hull KR stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 129 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1529. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull KR.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 30.8pts |
| 4.6pts | Avg Margin | -13.2pts |
| 1413.6m | Run Metres | 1127.4m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 311.0 | Tackles | 338.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R2 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 W | 25.6 |
| Hull KR | R2 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 12 | Hull KR | Hull KR 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R2 | Hull KR | 28 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull KR | 28 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 31 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 10 – 8 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.96 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 4th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.85 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 3rd there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.96/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.85/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 0.81/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.07/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 38 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 47 | 53 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 401m/g | 615m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.7/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 305m/g | 302m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.3) -10% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.51) -25% · Wingers 0.66/g (lg 0.99) -33%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.47/g (lg 0.51) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 15 in 26g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/19g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 10/18g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/17g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 18 | Cai Taylor-Wray | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 19 | Ewan Irwin | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 20 | Joshua Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 21 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 9 in 26g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 13 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 11/19g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 3% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 18 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 17 in 20g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 8 in 23g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 8 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.25 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 24g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 4 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 6 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 18 | Arthur Mourgue | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 19 | Dean Hadley | INT | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 20 | Lee Kershaw | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 21 | Frankie Dearlove | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1658 · Hull KR 1529 · ELO difference: 129 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 54.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Halves Control | 16.7% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 12.7% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 6.2% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 4.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.6% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-01 00:19 UTC (latest tip update)