Wigan Warriors
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Wigan Warriors
84%
Castleford Tigers
16%
AI Match Overview
Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 503-point ELO rating advantage (1746 vs 1243). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 20.7 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wigan Warriors to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.2%
Line / Spread
Wigan Warriors +20.7 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wigan Warriors 13-24 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wigan Warriors | R21W R22L R23W R24W R25W older → newer | 26.4 |
Castleford Tigers | R21L R22L R23L R24L R25W | 9.6 |
Avg Conceded
7.6
Wigan Warriors
41.2
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
18.8
Wigan Warriors
-31.6
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1154
Wigan Warriors
607
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
5.2
Wigan Warriors
1.6
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +20.7