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Super League | Round 26

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THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SATURDAY 13 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

2812
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 61%

AI Win Probability

61%Hull KRFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

39%

Hull KR

61%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Wakefield Trinity are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 252-point ELO rating advantage (1756 vs 1504). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 6.8 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.42

Lost ✗

Edge

-9.2%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -6.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R21L
R22W
R23L
R24W
R25L

older → newer

24.8
Hull KR
R21W
R22W
R23L
R24W
R25W
16.4

Avg Conceded

21.2

Wakefield Trinity

10.4

Hull KR

Avg Margin

3.6

Wakefield Trinity

6.0

Hull KR

Run Metres

828

Wakefield Trinity

1297

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.2

Wakefield Trinity

4.8

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Jun 2025WAK 10 - 34 HKR
Mar 2025WAK 12 - 14 HKR
Sep 2023WAK 12 - 56 HKR
Jun 2023WAK 12 - 28 HKR
Apr 2023WAK 6 - 34 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1504Overall1756
HKR
ELO difference: -252 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

856Forwards728
Best: 1130WAK +128Best: 926
819Backs943
Best: 956HKR +124Best: 1105
1037Halves842
Best: 1037WAK +195Best: 842
600Hooker1237
HKR +637

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
HKR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
21.2pts
Avg Conceded
10.4pts
3.6pts
Avg Margin
6.0pts
828.0m
Run Metres
1297.0m
3.2
Clean Breaks
4.8
236.4
Tackles
296.0
9.2
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

61%

Hull KR predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: -6.8

0/4 match predictions correct