Leigh Leopards
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Leigh Leopards
64%
St Helens
36%
AI Match Overview
Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.2 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leigh Leopards to Win @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.6%
Line / Spread
Leigh Leopards +3.2 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Leigh Leopards | R21L R22L R23W R24W R25W older → newer | 28.8 |
St Helens | R21W R22W R23W R24L R25L | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
12.8
Leigh Leopards
9.6
St Helens
Avg Margin
16.0
Leigh Leopards
13.2
St Helens
Run Metres
1282
Leigh Leopards
1252
St Helens
Clean Breaks
5.8
Leigh Leopards
4.2
St Helens
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1651 vs 1644), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.88).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +3.2