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Super League | Round 26

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LEI

Leigh Leopards

2810
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 64%

AI Win Probability

64%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

64%

St Helens

36%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.2 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.88

Winner ✓

Edge

+10.6%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +3.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R21L
R22L
R23W
R24W
R25W

older → newer

28.8
St Helens
R21W
R22W
R23W
R24L
R25L
22.8

Avg Conceded

12.8

Leigh Leopards

9.6

St Helens

Avg Margin

16.0

Leigh Leopards

13.2

St Helens

Run Metres

1282

Leigh Leopards

1252

St Helens

Clean Breaks

5.8

Leigh Leopards

4.2

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Mar 2026LEI 18 - 20 STH
Jul 2025LEI 16 - 4 STH
Sep 2024LEI 18 - 12 STH
Jul 2024LEI 46 - 4 STH
Mar 2024LEI 4 - 12 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1651 vs 1644), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.88).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1644Overall1651
STH
ELO difference: -7 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

748Forwards721
Best: 942LEI +27Best: 860
1162Backs706
Best: 1473LEI +456Best: 776
1135Halves1087
Best: 1135LEI +48Best: 1087
706Hooker1004
STH +299

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
STH
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
28.8pts
Avg Score
22.8pts
12.8pts
Avg Conceded
9.6pts
16.0pts
Avg Margin
13.2pts
1282.2m
Run Metres
1252.4m
5.8
Clean Breaks
4.2
283.4
Tackles
263.0
7.6
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

64%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +3.2

2/4 match predictions correct