Skip to main content

Super League | Round 26

alphr.com.au

AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • THURSDAY 11 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

816
CAT

Catalans Dragons

❌ Upset — model favoured Leeds Rhinos at 80%

AI Win Probability

80%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

80%

Catalans Dragons

20%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 415-point ELO rating advantage (1742 vs 1327). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 13.9 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.04

Lost ✗

Edge

-16.2%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +13.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R21W
R22W
R23W
R24W
R25W

older → newer

34.8
Catalans Dragons
R21L
R22L
R23W
R24L
R25W
17.4

Avg Conceded

5.2

Leeds Rhinos

21.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

29.6

Leeds Rhinos

-4.2

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1281

Leeds Rhinos

806

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

4.8

Leeds Rhinos

2.6

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
May 2026LEE 46 - 4 CAT
Mar 2025LEE 0 - 11 CAT
Aug 2024LEE 18 - 6 CAT
May 2024LEE 0 - 26 CAT
Mar 2024LEE 18 - 10 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1742Overall1327
CAT
ELO difference: +415 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

939Forwards912
Best: 1210LEE +27Best: 1057
826Backs969
Best: 976CAT +144Best: 1110
851Halves1000
Best: 851CAT +149Best: 1000
652Hooker600
LEE +52

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
CAT
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
34.8pts
Avg Score
17.4pts
5.2pts
Avg Conceded
21.6pts
29.6pts
Avg Margin
-4.2pts
1280.6m
Run Metres
806.2m
4.8
Clean Breaks
2.6
264.4
Tackles
215.8
9.0
Errors
6.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

80%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +13.9

1/4 match predictions correct