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Super League | Round 26

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 13 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

342
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Hull at 62%

AI Win Probability

62%HullFavourite

Hull

62%

Warrington Wolves

38%

AI Match Overview

Hull hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Warrington Wolves are far from out of this at 38%. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Hull counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Hull carry a 120-point ELO rating advantage (1464 vs 1344). Recent form favours Hull with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Hull by 5.8 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.66

Winner ✓

Edge

+1.9%

Line / Spread

Hull +5.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R21W
R22W
R23L
R24L
R25L

older → newer

22.4
Warrington Wolves
R21L
R22W
R23L
R24L
R25L
16.4

Avg Conceded

17.2

Hull

25.6

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

5.2

Hull

-9.2

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1056

Hull

786

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

4.8

Hull

2.0

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 4-1
Jun 2025HUL 10 - 24 WAR
Apr 2025HUL 28 - 16 WAR
Feb 2024HUL 6 - 24 WAR
Jun 2024HUL 18 - 24 WAR
Mar 2024HUL 10 - 36 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1464Overall1344
WAR
ELO difference: +120 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

783Forwards814
Best: 1042WAR +31Best: 1000
758Backs914
Best: 863WAR +156Best: 1123
600Halves800
Best: 600WAR +200Best: 800
742Hooker780
WAR +38

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
WAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
22.4pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
17.2pts
Avg Conceded
25.6pts
5.2pts
Avg Margin
-9.2pts
1056.0m
Run Metres
785.8m
4.8
Clean Breaks
2.0
248.8
Tackles
253.6
7.6
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

62%

Hull predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +5.8

2/4 match predictions correct